Secondly, effective life IS EQUAL to actual life in statistical terms. Its called the expected value.
Which again, does not equal reality.
If you don't like the way maths works, then stop using it in all your calculations.
Where did I say anything about the ways maths work? Of course I know it, but a chance is not a fact, it's called a "chance" because it's just that: a chance. It's an effective multiplier only in theory. Doesn't go like that in actual practice.
And if you're going to ignore a 60% chance to block then you sure as hell should ignore your AR, since thats a %age chance of something happening....
Well, everything in this game is merely a chance of something happening. Nothing in the game is a steady fact, except some non-changeable numbers. You have a chance to do X damage, but you can also do Z or Y damage. You have an X chance of blocking, but since it's not a fact, it doesn't mean it will block X hits in 10 hits that get through defense, it just says it might happen.
Thirdly, Have you ever played a ghost?
No, I haven't played one. I used to play a random wwsin, but that was really, really long ago, when Ladder season 2 was still there and Grief hadn't been published. When Grief got out, I made a welfare Smiter. After that, I made my first BvC. For a short while I also used a Novamancer and a bonemancer, but in the end, I turned back to a BvC.
Fourthly, a high Poison res, PLR ES sorc is still easier for a sin. Since they can catch her easier. Yes, due to those little things called traps and MB.
You cannot seriously say that MB is always better than Leap. Mind Blast has a disadvantage of the need to be aimed. So, when your opponent is not on your screen, you either need a delayed namelock or you will be depending on you shadow. The healing factor of MB is the swirlies that allow a longer stun. As for traps, yes, they do help keep your target right there and maybe do some damage too, but it's a fact that WWsins depend on Venom and Open Wounds to do any decent damage. That, on the other hand, is what should be dealt to an ES-based sorc. However, you have to take into account that OW and Venom simply do not overthrow a huge WW that easily, specially with a less than 20% chance to hit, specially not so if the sorc has 85%ish PR. Thus, the only things a WW has over a BvC is more OW and a longer stun. Even the OW factor is debatable since most sins nowadays seem to prefer a Fool's claw for AR. The stun, on the other hand, is only needed to keep the sorc in place.
Hell, the very best ES FB sorcs are able to tank a BvC that lacks in the AR and damage departments. And yes, I have dueled such sorcs. Not cool.