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What are the chances of...

Discussion in 'Theorycrafting and Statistics' started by Georgemofo, Apr 13, 2005.

  1. Georgemofo

    Georgemofo IncGamers Member

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    What are the chances of...

    gambling a rare circlet, if any at all?
     
  2. Zavior

    Zavior IncGamers Member

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    I think its 10% for rares.
     
  3. BFD

    BFD IncGamers Member

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    IIRC, The chance for rares actually increases as your character level increases. Or maybe that's just the chance for upgrading. RTB will know the right answer/formula when it comes to gambling.
     
  4. Oddity

    Oddity IncGamers Member

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    Look here ---> http://www.battle.net/diablo2exp/basics/gambling.shtml

    In particular

    These chances don't change - you can get higher quality items as you level up, meaning you get the chance at better pre/suffixes, but the chance to get rare/unique/set is always the same.
     
  5. Georgemofo

    Georgemofo IncGamers Member

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    Ok, thanks so much.

    Hehe, time to gamble like mad.
     
  6. Thrugg

    Thrugg IncGamers Member

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    While the AS quote is correct on the chance of a rare being 1 in 10 and not changing, almost the entire rest of the quote is wrong. So wrong I can't just leave it sitting there :)

    The chance of gambling a unique is 1 in 2000.
    The chance of gambling a set is 1 in 1000.
    The numbers they list were for the beta of 1.10 and they improved them for final release.

    The chance of exceptional and elite upgrades does depend on your character level, it is no fixed. This is probably what BFD was remembering.

    The chance of an upgrade depends on the item level (which is randomly determined from your char level, -5 to +4) and the qlvl of the item you are hoping to upgrade to.

    For exceptional upgrades it is
    (1 + 90 * (ilvl - qlvl)) / 10000
    and for elites it is
    (1 + 33 * (ilvl - qlvl)) / 10000

    You can sort of see how they have misinterpreted that in the AS quote. If you happened to have ilvl 10 more than qlvl, they would be (almost) right.

    As an example, if you are clvl 70 and you gamble a Short Sword... the ilvl is determined randomly between 65 and 74, equal chance of each. Suppose you got a bit lucky and it came out as ilvl 72.
    The exceptional ugrade of a Short Sword is Gladius, qlvl 30. So there is a (1 + 90 * (72-30)) / 10000 = 37.8% chance of an upgrade to a Gladius (pretty good).
    The elite upgrade of a Short Sword is a Falcata, qlvl 56. So there is a (1 + 33 * (72-56)) / 10000 = 5.29% chance of an upgrade to a Falcata.
     
  7. BFD

    BFD IncGamers Member

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    Thanks Thrugg thats what I was thinking about.
     

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