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Torches: To ID or not to ID

Discussion in 'Theorycrafting and Statistics' started by Timmy, Apr 17, 2008.

  1. Timmy

    Timmy IncGamers Member

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    Torches: To ID or not to ID

    Which of the two seem to be more profitable on the long run, to ID or not to ID your torches? :grin: I'm on Europe ladder if it matters
     
  2. Alc

    Alc IncGamers Member

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    Re: Torches: To ID or not to ID

    On NL, I'm currently selling unid torches at 2.5-3 hrs a pop. The chances of ID-ing a torch worth that are very slim. The real gamble is to identify them.

    Speaking of torches, a guy just bought two unid torches off me in a row. He never left town, and he never dropped anything, and he certainly never left the game. How is this possible?
     
  3. DayDream

    DayDream IncGamers Member

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    Re: Torches: To ID or not to ID

    ^Video/ss or its fiction :p

    It's certainly safer to sell unid but you may end up kicking yourself if it ends up being something good.

    I personally just ID for fun and it's been pretty rewarding.
     
  4. omgwtfbbqpwned

    omgwtfbbqpwned IncGamers Member

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    Re: Torches: To ID or not to ID

    If you'll compile a list of rolls and the prices ranges (ie, this skill with x amount of resistance and stats will get y amount, etc.), it's not that hard to determine what happens if you supposedly were to sell an infinite amount of Torches.

    Anyone have such a list?
     
  5. Timmy

    Timmy IncGamers Member

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    Re: Torches: To ID or not to ID

    That's my biggest concern, what if one of them is a pala 20/20 T. You think it was more profitable for you if you sold them all unid? :tongue:


     
  6. ProfessionalBerg

    ProfessionalBerg IncGamers Member

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    Re: Torches: To ID or not to ID

    You mean, finding the average value of all torches possible? A heckuva job, I'll say. Each class torch will have to be arranged in an 11x11 matrix (stats on X-axis, resists on Y-axis). In the grid cells, an approximate value for that torch should be written (according to realm, L/NL and HC/SC). 7 such tables must be made. After that, you sum up all values and divide by the amount of possible torches (7x11x11).

    Theoretically, I could do it (for EUSCL), but I need as precise prices on every torch type as possible. How much is a palat 15-20 worth? Is it worth the same as 16-20 and 14-20? Etc.



     
  7. DayDream

    DayDream IncGamers Member

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    Re: Torches: To ID or not to ID

    Easy solution..
    If you need the currency, trade it unid and leave the game right away before the person ids. You will avoid hearing the "OMFG ITS A 20-20 ptorch" and can lie to yourself by repeating "its going to be a 10-10ztorch np"
    ^Is what I've been doing when I mfed keys and traded torches. :p
     
  8. Davio

    Davio IncGamers Member

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    Re: Torches: To ID or not to ID

    After using a price guide for EuScL I found at an undisclosed location, I found this:

    Unid torch = Ist
    Id'd torches average = Mal

    So, you're better off not id'ing in the long run.

    By the way, you don't need an 11x11x7 matrix since you can use ranges. All 19/xx torches have about the same value and then there is a range for 20/10-20/14 etc...
     
  9. ProfessionalBerg

    ProfessionalBerg IncGamers Member

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    Re: Torches: To ID or not to ID

    You still have to determine the amount of torch variations included in each range. And the easiest way to do this is indeed to set up a table showing all combinations.



     
  10. shanelee

    shanelee IncGamers Member

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    Re: Torches: To ID or not to ID

    he vendored a torch coz it was crap.


     
  11. Davio

    Davio IncGamers Member

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    Re: Torches: To ID or not to ID

    Well, I did my calculation as follows.

    Pala random: x coins (random currency) - 110 times
    Pala 20/10-14: y coins - 5 times
    Pala 20/15-18: z coins - 4 times
    Pala 20/19: q coins - 1 time
    Pala 20/20: n coins - 1 time

    Add them all up and you have 121 (or 11x11) combinations.

    Sum 110*x through 1*n and divide by 121 to get an average/torch for the pally torches.

    You can sum over all the seven different classes and divide by 847 (121*7) to get an average.

    When you're done you just have to check wether the avg is higher/lower than the coins assigned to unid torches.


     
  12. ProfessionalBerg

    ProfessionalBerg IncGamers Member

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    Re: Torches: To ID or not to ID

    What about all torches < 20/x? A 19/x is not the same as 15/x, and that one is not the same as 10/x. At the same time, x/10 is not the same as x/20 etc. Way too many categories. Like I said, instead of using your complex method, why not do this:

    [​IMG]

    Just type in numeric values of all torches (in Pgems, for example, or in Pul's, whatever works), and Excel will do the rest for you. Much easier to use, huh?
     
  13. Davio

    Davio IncGamers Member

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    Re: Torches: To ID or not to ID

    Well, my method wasn't very hard at all and only used like 30 lines in excel.

    Either way, if you want to fill in all those xxx's and do your own calculation, be my guest! Be sure to make 7 matrices, or rather 3 or 4, since pala and soso torches are special, necro/dudu/assa/baba/ama are rather different brands of the same pooh.

    Too bad there's not exactly a detailed priceguide for torches around.
     
  14. phoenixhawk

    phoenixhawk IncGamers Member

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    Re: Torches: To ID or not to ID

    This is how I would do it.

    1. Assume a small number of ranges for torch resistance and attribute stats. E.g., the 5 ranges for the ptorch the guy above shows. These ranges will be the same for all classes.

    2. Assume certain classes have torches that are roughly equal in value in each resistance/attribute range.

    3. Price each type of torch accordingly for a fixed realm (e.g., West soft-core ladder). There is no need to intermingle different realms; just do the calculations separately for each realm one is interested in.

    4. Find the resulting average torch price by class. This is just an interesting intermediate result.

    5. I think it's a safe assumption that a torch has equal probability of being for each class. So just calculate the average torch price as the average torch price over all classes.

    ---

    Then there are other considerations.

    1. What, if any, type of torches would you want to keep for yourself? Should you try to get these by id'ing self-found torches, buying unid'd torches later, or buying id'd torches? This would affect the total cost of selling torches (id'd or unid'd) together with the cost of getting your own torches.

    2. Differing transaction costs in each of the actions in (1). How hard is it to find a buyer for unid'd torches versus for each particular type of id'd torch?

    3. One can also consider whether it's better yet to sell keys (in various combinations) or organ sets -- in terms of price and transaction costs. This includes the time it takes to get the organs and then also to get the torches. (The cost of id'ing a torch is negligible.)

    4. How should you originate the process? Should you mf your own keys or trade for them? Or buy organ sets instead? Or buy unid'd torches, id them, and then sell them if the arbitrage is worth it (depends on the original price analysis of id'd versus unid'd torches)?
     
  15. krischan

    krischan Europe Trade Moderator

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    Re: Torches: To ID or not to ID

    Please use smaller screenies. It eats bandwith and some people have to wait for it for a rather long time.

    To avoid cutting down a screenie with a picture editor, resize the window accordingly and press Alt-PrtSc, so just the window is in the clipboard.



     
  16. ProfessionalBerg

    ProfessionalBerg IncGamers Member

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    Re: Torches: To ID or not to ID

    I'm sorry, I forgot to resize the pic. Anyway, I used the Alt-PrtScr (you can see that there are no other elements), but I took the pic on my 1280x800 laptop, so yeah, resizing would've been smarter.
     
  17. Davio

    Davio IncGamers Member

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    Re: Torches: To ID or not to ID

    Haha, especially since you only used like 15% of the sheetspace. :p
     
  18. helvete

    helvete IncGamers Member

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    Re: Torches: To ID or not to ID

    In the end of the day, it all comes down to how lucky you feel.

    Unid torches: Steady income
    IDing torches: Good idea in the beginning (since you can build your own cheap characters with the not so great ones) but requires some luck to get the same kind of income later on.
     

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