This made me all butthurt...

[NASE]

Re: This made me all butthurt...

As far as percentages, yeah tyrael's has a better drop chance. But Tyrael's can only be dropped by a lvl 97+ monster (maybe even 99, not sure). So there's Baal and Listor the Tormentor. I think nilahthak might be able to drop it too.

You are forgetting every single champion, (minion) and random boss in any alvl 85 place.

Just ask the single player community. and let them decided. Very few that don't do lower kurast runes have found zods.

 

[Krugar]

Re: This made me all butthurt...

Did someone in this thread say a Zod rune is more rare than Tyrael's Might? Ugh.

As far as percentages, yeah tyrael's has a better drop chance. But Tyrael's can only be dropped by a lvl 97+ monster (maybe even 99, not sure). So there's Baal and Listor the Tormentor. I think nilahthak might be able to drop it too.

Zod only needs a lvl 72 or so monster to drop it, which is basically every monster in hell level beyond early act one.

You are in fact incorrect. Tyrael's Might can drop also on lvl85 areas such a the Pits or Ancient Tunnels. Please read the MF guide put up by jjscud.

Meanhile, it is quite irrelevant who or how many drop a certain item. The individual odds of a specific item to drop is what determines it's rarity since you can't run two monsters at the same time (aka roll more than one dice). Zod is indeed the rarest item of the game.

 

[AniMe]

Re: This made me all butthurt...

Meanhile, it is quite irrelevant who or how many drop a certain item. The individual odds of a specific item to drop is what determines it's rarity since you can't run two monsters at the same time

False. By the time you kill, say, Nihlathak, you could have killed like 100 regular monsters.

 

[Krugar]

Re: This made me all butthurt...

False. By the time you kill, say, Nihlathak, you could have killed like 100 regular monsters.

Common misconception caused by confusing statistical analysis with the laws of probability.

One never increases their chances of rolling a 6 in a dice by rolling the dice 100 times. Neither if one can roll the dice 100 times by the time I roll just one. The laws of probability concern themselves with each event. Each roll of the dice is a single probabilistic event unrelated to none other. So, each roll of the dice has 1 in 6 chances of rolling a 6.

 

[AniMe]

Re: This made me all butthurt...

Common misconception caused by confusing statistical analysis with the laws of probability.

One never increases their chances of rolling a 6 in a dice by rolling the dice 100 times. Neither if one can roll the dice 100 times by the time I roll just one. The laws of probability concern themselves with each event. Each roll of the dice is a single probabilistic event unrelated to none other. So, each roll of the dice has 1 in 6 chances of rolling a 6.

I don't really see your point. 100 rolls of a die will yield me plenty sixes. You will most likely not get one with your 1 roll.

You just posted a post with no bearing or relevance to anything How probable was that? =p

 

[Krugar]

Re: This made me all butthurt...

You just posted a post with no bearing or relevance to anything How probable was that? =p

I am not going to discuss this with you. Certainly not when you are trying to be too smart for your own good.

Until you learn about the laws of probability and how to perform and interpret statistical analysis, anything you have to say on this matter is rather mute. You cannot change mathematical Laws on your hunch or feeling.

How's that for a post without any relevance?

 

[AniMe]

Re: This made me all butthurt...

Practice before theory Krugar, practice before theory You don't need to be a scientist to know that if you roll one hundred poker hands you're bound to get better hands than if you roll one.

 

[Pied]

Re: This made me all butthurt...

Ofcourse the chance itself will never change, the dice stays the same . But if i can roll 10 times as fast as you can, the probability to get a specific item in the same time interval is multiplied by 10.

 

[AniMe]

Re: This made me all butthurt...

Ofcourse the chance itself will never change, the dice stays the same . But if i can roll 10 times as fast as you can, the probability to get a specific item in the same time interval is multiplied by 10.

EXACTLY!

Gee

 

[Kiroptus]

Re: This made me all butthurt...

I dont think it is simply multiplied by 10, its another more complex calculation if I remember, I can be wrong but rolling a dice of lets say, 10 sides (representing the boss runs) and a dice of 100 sides (representing the random monster slaying) is bigger than only 10x. I may be wrong but I do believe its something on these lines, look at the price tags of the lottery. Betting 10 tickets of 10 choices is far more cheaper than trying one single lottery of 20 choices , with the first being like 2-5 dollars and the other price bearing the 5 digit price. I remember seeing the calculations and why the price tag was so high was because the chances were much higher than just 10x.

I may be wrong here but I do believe the calculations are far more complex than what you guys are thinking.

 

[Krugar]

Re: This made me all butthurt...

Ofcourse the chance itself will never change, the dice stays the same

Perfect! Now we are getting somewhere. So, get your fastest monster capable of dropping a Zod and a TM and observe the odds of them actually dropping.

Let's say we are doing the Pits. Fastest to kill mob is probably the Devilkin.
So,

Zod -> 1 : 61450628 Devilkin - [H] Pit Level 1 - {mlvl 85}
TM -> 1 : 1068141 Devilkin (unique) - [H] Pit Level 1 - {mlvl **}

Do I need to say anything more?
There's plenty of other monsters from where that came from. Point in case, Zod is the rarest item in the game for at least a factor of 57x

Correction: Actually I cannot say the last part of the sentence without further analysis. It could be other monsters had closer calls between TM and Zod. But point in case still remains that Zod is the rarest item in the game.

 

[AniMe]

Re: This made me all butthurt...

So a Zod is 61 times rarer than a TM then from that particlar creature? How many uniques spawn compared to the amount of regular devilkin? And how much longer does it take to kill that unique compared to the regular devilkin?

Efficiency...

 

[Krugar]

Re: This made me all butthurt...

Hehe...
It's irrelevant. And that's what I have been trying to tell you. Statistically we would need to do analysis to project the odds. But probabilistically, Zod is the rarest item in the game. EDIT: And any statistical analysis, no matter the result, cannot change this.

 

[AniMe]

Re: This made me all butthurt...

Rare by droprate sure. But practically when considering all other factors? I'm not so sure...

 

[Krugar]

Re: This made me all butthurt...

I'll try and show you... give me a sec...

Let's do just some preliminary analysis. For that we are going to assume 57 (not 61, check your math) is the average rate difference between Zod and TM.

Now, there's between 8 and 11 bosspacks in the pits (levels 1 and 2 together). If we wanted to start some sort of preliminary analysis, first step would be to multiply that by 57. This will gives the number of non boss monsters needed to exist in the Pits to raise Zod drop rate (attention, drop rate not probability) to a level similar to that of the TM.

So there would need to be anything between 456 and 627 non boss monsters in the pits. But in reality you probably have close to 100 monsters.

EDIT: I forgot to conclude.

So according to this rough draft, even with only 8 or 11 bosses in the pits, you will still see 4 or 5 Tyrael's Might before your Zod finally drops.

 

[stillman]

Re: This made me all butthurt...

What is more important: the odds of a zod vs TM dropping or the actual amount of one vs the other in the ecconomy? Imo, the latter is what should count.

But it gets more complex than the numbers presented. Many people do Baal runs only, and we don't know how many baal runners are putting TMs or zods into the ecconomy vs how many multishot bowazons are cleaning out screenfuls of regular monsters. How many pit runners vs how many hell forge converters, etc. These proportions would be crucial in determining the actual prevalience of anything in the ecconomy. Of course, dupes come along and mess up the whole system, so why even bother delving this deep into it?

 

[AniMe]

Re: This made me all butthurt...

Alright I see.. In the Pits I'd assume there's about 250-300 monsters though but I see your point and admit defeat. Though I must say Zod wasn't at all as rare though as people in this thread has made it out to be...

 

[Krugar]

Re: This made me all butthurt...

Meanwhile I was just told off by my wife (the house mathematician). I need to correct something I said earlier and probably why AniMe intervened...

The individual odds of a specific item to drop is what determines it's rarity since you can't run two monsters at the same time (aka roll more than one dice).

This is in fact incorrect. When I'm using area of effect skills, it can be said I'm effectively rolling more than one dice at the same time.

 

[kreeper]

Re: This made me all butthurt...

While all your statistical analysis is fine and dandy you need nothing more than common sense to know that a bowzon killing 100 monsters in the time it takes you to kill that one monster is going to have better odds of finding said item. Also your data simply applies no further than the pit. So yes in the Pit and maybe several other "small" areas this is true, however I would beg to differ in somewhere such as Chaos Sanctuary or for that matter most of the playable areas in Diablo.

 

[Krugar]

Re: This made me all butthurt...

While all your statistical analysis is fine and dandy you need nothing more than common sense to know that a bowzon killing 100 monsters in the time it takes you to kill that one monster is going to have better odds of finding said item.

I'm not sure what you are trying to say. This is not about different classes doing MF.