The REAL Star of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California i

[pancakeman]

The REAL Start of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California

I know we usually just do a TdF thread mythos, but I think this year we should expand our discussion, and what better place to start than what is rapidly becoming one of the biggest races in the world, the Tour of California.

Allow me to start this thread by saying that I am totally amazed at how many huge riders are showing up. Back in September I saw Lance was gonna ride it, and then Basso, and Sastre, and now it's basically anyone that is anyone. Compared to last this, this is like a Grand Tour!

Ok, so, after seeing the profiles today (Holy crap, by the way), I have to go with my man Levi to win it. He's won it twice now, and according to Lance it is his main objective for year. He lives in California, so he had the advantage of being able to scope out every stage as many times as he wanted, plus he has ridden them who even knows how many times by now.
In the skills department, he has what it takes, namely climbing skills to pay the bills. He is also one of the top 3 time trialists in the world, and the TT in Solvang has been the decisive stage before. Add to that the fact that he has the best cyclist in the world as his domestique, and he is practically unbeatable.

Having said that, he most assuredly has people to worry about. Basso is an unknown quantity to me, I've never really seen him race, but I've heard he is extremely good. However, Liquigas is a team that you don't see when it comes to the high mountains, so I see Basso being isolated, whereas Levi will have Lance, Horner, and Rubiera with him.
Kirchen might have what it takes, but I foresee Columbia being there more for stage wins.
The biggest rival in this race would seem to be Vandevelde, who is basically Levi, but less so. He can climb nearly as well, TT nearly as well, and has a team that can support him nearly as well.

Sastre won't have the TT ability, and unless he gets a huge solo attack in the mountains to work, he won't win. The shoe is on the other foot for him now, Astana is the team prepared to give everything for a win, and Sastre is like Cadel Evans, totally alone.

Oh, and Landis. Landis is dead to me, I thought Stage 17 was the most amazing thing ever, and he cheated. I don't care if he has served his time, I don't like him.

So, what do you think?

(Kaysaar is gonna disagree with me on Sastre, but I don't care :smug::tongue:

 

[Kaysaar]

Re: The REAL Star of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California

It's nice to see the big names getting in on a North American tour. What I'm most interested to see is how the stars of cycling are going to ride. I don't think that they'll be going all out this tour because it's so early in the season, and the want to make sure that they peak during the Tour de France. I also want to see how some of the smaller teams fair against the world's top teams. I think we'll see some young local talent making breaks, trying to get themselves recognized.

As far as my pick? It depends on whether or not Alberto Contador rides. If he rides, then he's my pick hands down. I do think that Levi has a certain advantage, not just because he's got "home team advantage" so to speak, but rather because the team leader of Astana is Alberto Contador. He's their number one rider, which allows other riders on the team to push themselves a little harder than other riders, such as Sastre, who doesn't want to overdo himself so early in the season. I think there might be local talent who takes advantage of the big teams to make a name for himself. You know, a Cinderella story and junk and stuff.

I also think it'll be interesting to see how Ivan Basso rides after his suspension for doping. He was a great rider, and was pegged as Lance Armstrong's heir apparent - until he was caught doping and banned for two years. Even if you keep riding, the lack of real competition dulls the instincts a tad. If he can recover his form, he might be able to make things interesting for the race favorites.

 

[pancakeman]

Re: The REAL Star of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California

No, Contador isn't riding it, he's focusing on the Tour. Between him and Cadel Evans, they're contesting the "Most Obsessed With Winning the Tour" award.

As for the young talent, expect BMC to be in every single break. It's definitely a good strategy and stuff, but it's almost comical how many breaks they can be in.

So, without Levi, who's your pick?

 

[Kaysaar]

Re: The REAL Star of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California

I wouldn't call Contador focused solely on the Tour - seeing as he'll probably make runs at La Vuelta de España and Il Giro, at least to defend his titles there.

I agree with you for this tour - I think that Levi is probably the favorite. I think that his team will help him in the mountains, if Armstrong can accept his role as a lieutenant rather than as a leader. If he accepts his role, then Levi will have one of the greatest climbers as help, which is a great boost to have, for both physical help and experience.

Barring crashes, I think we'll see a podium of Levi, Carlos Sastre and Vandevelde.

 

[pancakeman]

Re: The REAL Star of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California

I don't think Contador is going to contest the Giro, I think he's leaving that for Lance, but he'll probably be at the Vuelta. If he does try to do all of them, I think Lance should just say **** it and win the damned Tour.

I think you're right on that podium, except maybe Sastre would be replaced with Landis. I don't like him, but the fool can climb, and he can TT. Sastre can only climb. Take into account that he doesn't really have anyone in the mountains, and he just might be out of the running for the podium. It's really a toss up between the two in my opinion.

 

[Kaysaar]

Re: The REAL Star of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California

I think it'd be refreshing for a cyclist to go for the hat-trick - like a flash to the past where the great riders contested more than only the Tour de France. Because of this, I don't really consider Lance the greatest cyclist because he only focused on the Tour and its tune ups. He's the best Tour de France rider in history, but because he didn't attempt either of the other great tours, he loses points in my book to riders like Eddy Mercks, Miguel Indurain, and Bernard Hinault. Since Contador has already won the Il Giro and La Vuelta - I think he should try to go for all three. It's asking a lot of him, but he has the strongest team in the world around him, and a brilliant team manager. If he could pull it off he'd be written into Cycling history even more than he already is. Contador has improved his time trialing, so he'll be a legitimate threat for anything he enters.

I'm curious to see how Lance and Contador will juggle the need to be team leader. Lance is a legacy rider, but I think that Contador has earned the right to be Astana's team leader. Winning three major tours in a calendar year is an exceptional feat for any athlete. If Astana can keep the three egos in check (Contador, Lance, and Levi), then they have a chance to dominate any event that they participate in. Depending on Lance's form, they'll have three riders who are capable of winning one of the grand tours.

I think it'll be hard for Landis to make it to the podium - he's just not that strong a rider compared to the competition - especially since his strongest solo ride has been attributed to doping.

 

[pancakeman]

Re: The REAL Star of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California

Well, Contador has repeatedly stated that he wants the Tour this year, and Lance has accepted that and targeted the Giro. If Contador decides to go for that, Lance is in an awkward position. He gave up his race, to take away the Giro would be petty. Contador has a very bright future ahead of him, he can afford to not contest one of the Giros.
Other than that, I agree with you. Heck, if they played it right they could get a Levi, Lance, Contador podium, and every other team would simply give up.

You have to remember that that one stage didn't win the Tour for Landis, he performed well after that to hold the jersey. But you're right, I doubt he would have won were it not for doping.

 

[pancakeman]

Re: The REAL Star of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California

I have to get to sleep, but before I do...


The Prologue: Nothing to report, really. Levi and Cancellara were going to be first and second, it was just the order that needed sorting out. Zabriskie is back, it seems, and he destroyed that TT. Oh, and I did expect to see Lance in the top 5, I guess he isn't quite in top form yet. He has always been one to peak in July, I guess.

Stage 1: I didn't see most of this, so all I can say is that Mancebo laid the smackdown on the peloton. I'm also surprised that he was able to accelerate at the end, after 100 miles of being pretty alone or in a small group in pouring rain and freezing cold. I take my hat off to him.

I just hope he wasn't cheating. I'm not accusing him, but he does ride for Rock Racing, and it was only a month or two ago that one of theirs got caught doping during training. I'd love it if he did this on pure power and determination, but the last time there was something like this was Stage 17 of a certain 2006 race...

 

[mythos]

Re: The REAL Star of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California

I don't come here much anymore (work has diii.net blocked, bastards), but I did come looking for this thread!

I like Levi for the win, his team will make the difference, it also helps that he can sort of ride a bike! Astana has too many leaders and not enough races. You guys forgot Kloden (finished on the TdF podium a few times iirc). Contador will not ride the Giro. He's been there, done that. Plus he's Spanish, he couldn't give a toss about the Giro (well compared to the TdF and Vuelta).
For the podium, I'll add any of Basso, Vandevelde, Rogers (you guys wouldn't have heard much on him, he was sick all last year, but he IS a 3 time TT World Champ), Landis and I'm sure I've forgot someone. The race is too short for Sastre, and as already stated he can't TT.

Merckx was the best of all time. Full stop. I think he won every third race he contested. That's just freakish! Google his palmares. Armstrong has to be the best TdF rider ever, and he's changed the way the sport is contested now by targeting specific races. BTW suffer in your jocks, he raced in Oz first, and yes I did go and see it. It was a week of absolute hero worship in the media over here. Much racing, riding and wine tasting were to be had. Lovely place, the McLaren Vale if you like a nice red (esp Shiraz).

Basso was a class act. Then he got busted. The only shame is that more guys haven't been caught, yes Mr Valverde, I'm talking to you.

I can't see anyone beating Contador at TdF. The Schlecks will attack, he'll follow, everyone else will get dropped. Maybe not on the first climb, but it'll happen. He'll then grab back any time lost on the climbs in the TT. He'll make up a ton of time in the TTT. Contador, Armstrong, Levi, Kloden, all in the one TTT. No-one is going to beat that!

Overall I think Astana are too strong this year. They'll make the tours a bit boring. I'm looking forward to the spring classics like Milano-San Remo and Paris-Roubaix. The Boonen/Cavendish battle should be interesting.

On a personal note, the addition of a second little mythos to the family means I will be off the bike for a bit of time yet. However, I've decided to do my first straight marathon in Oct. I need the time to get in shape after not having rrun for 3 years, pretty much since my last Ironman race.

I'd better go read up on the Tour of Cali, well maybe at work tomorrow. Gogo cyclingnews.com

 

[pancakeman]

Re: The REAL Star of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California

Wow, lots of posting...

Merckx = win. (He attacked just for the hell of it, you don't see that anymore)

Valverde = cheater cheat pumpkin eater. He beat the wrap in Spain, but the Italians won't let him off so easy.

Contador is likely to be unbeatable, unless he screws up somehow. Astana could get a 5 year old with training wheels the win. If he gets a mechanical at a really bad time or crashes hard, that's a different story.

Overall I think Astana are too strong this year. They'll make the tours a bit boring

Maybe.

On a personal note, the addition of a second little mythos to the family

Congratulations!


The Race
Ok, today's stage kicked ***. I have to salute that ten man break, staying away in weather like that was truly a superhuman feat. In fact, I salute the entire peloton for riding in that for the second day in a row.
That being said, two names: Barredo and Levi. Barredo called his shot when they first rolled into sunshine, he stripped down and prepared to declare war on the other nine. He put in a great attack on the last climb, but I guess his legs didn't have it in 'em to keep it going.

Levi. Holy ****. I've always been a fan of Levi, something I'm sure shocks you guys, but I can say without any bias that his performance today was amazing. He took off and didn't stop until he crossed the line! I was watching the thing live, and I had to pick my jaw up off the floor. I've just never seen an attack quite like that.

That being said, I take points away from the Garmin rider that was with him at the end. He seemed to celebrate an awful lot for a guy who never contributed to his "win". He could have at least done a couple turns on the front or something.

 

[mythos]

Re: The REAL Star of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California

Astana have 5 guys in the top 10 on GC. If they dominate too much people will begin to question their credibility. Sport is only interesting when there is an actual contest. Now granted its very early in the season, but I think the trend will continue. I reckon they could win all 3 Tours this year.

Reading the race report (and what you said above), it looks like Levi has stamped himself on the race. And good on him. He won't have many chances to ride for himself this year, so he should take his opportunites. Astana will now control the race until the TT. I think Levi will be hard to beat.
My man, Mick Rogers is nicely placed. Pretty good for someone who will be focused on the races in Europe. Lance is also within range. Its also nice to see Zabriskie showing some form after a disappointing season last year. Actually, plenty of guys have a 'chance'. The TT will decide it overall.

Obviously, Vande Velde has only turned up for a training ride.

I think you are too harsh on the Garmin rider. He has no incentive to pull. His leader (Zabriskie, gotta look that spelling up) was only a few seconds back, if he takes a turn and helps Levi increase his lead, then he will be shot by his teammates after the stage. If Levi wants the leaders jersey, he has to earn it. Just by not attacking Levi, the Garmin rider is doing him a favor. Areodymanically speaking, two guys are faster than one. The Garmin rider was good enough not to get dropped, I think he deserved the win. From the interviews I saw, Levi seemed to walk away from today quite happy. It was just smart racing on the Garmin kids behalf. Levi understands that. Why put in an effort, when you know the other guy is going to go all out, whether you help of not?
It'd be like saying Tom Boonen doesn't deserve it because his lead out train gave him an armchair ride to 200m and then he hits the gas.

Is the weather always that crappy? I seem to remember the last couple of years have had some pretty bad days. I'd say they should put it back a few weeks, but the spring classics are coming up, so maybe they have no choice. Anyway, life isn't meant to be easy for the pro's. Make em earn their money.

On another side note. My favorite hill training ride, up to Kinglake is looking pretty shabby now. Huge fires burnt the place down last weekend. Lots of people died. Not good. What used to be an awesome ride through the bush, is now just charcoal.

 

[pancakeman]

Re: The REAL Star of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California

Well, it wasn't so much the sitting back, it's the reaction I've seen about it. For instance, Vaughters is praising him, cyclingnews' article on his win is calling him a "prodigy", but all he did was sit behind. It is a win, and a pretty good one at that, but it is nothing amazing. Still, I might have been a little harsh on him.

The weather is usually great, last year there was only one stage with any rain, but I'm guessing for the riders it was enough for the entire race. From what I gather, the weather was nice the years before that as well.

Sorry to hear about your riding spot. I've got my eye on a place to ride, once I get into shape enough to be able to. It's rolling hills, and trees on both sides of the road. There's farmland on either side, not vast expanses, but enough to be really gorgeous. I'll get a picture next time I drive out there, or hopefully when I ride out there.


Oh, and yeah, Levi is win. Landis can't beat him, Basso can't beat him, really the only guys who can are Zabriskie and Rogers. (You got the spelling correct, BTW) Zabriskie is so-so on the climbs, and the last day has that huge climb up Mt. Palomar. Even if Zabriskie demolished Levi on the TT and got the jersey, Levi could win it back on that climb. Rogers I'm not sure about, I've never really seen him race.
Oh, and you're right, Vandevelde is only here for a relaxing ride through California. I'd have thought he would try and do something here, at least go for a top ten or something. He didn't even try on the prologue, I'm disappointed

 

[mythos]

Re: The REAL Star of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California

Vandevelde is in the same position as guys like Evans, ie they want to peak in July, so asking them for a big effort in Feb is just not going to happen.

I did read the prodigy bit. I can see why Vaughters would be happy if he's been the guys personal coach since he was a kid. cyclingnews, like all other commentators is probably guilty of turning one win into 'the next big thing'. He does deserve soem credit, he did hold the wheel when everyone else got dropped.

Armstrong is only 30sec back. He's not out of the picture. The main reason I like Levi for the win, is that this is his race. The team has made him leader, he might not be in that position for the rest of the year. So he's turned up with better form and more motivation than the rest. Only Landis is in a similar position, ie its the biggest race of the year for his team. But he lost too much time with a flat.

I just want to see Rojers do well, since he has had some terrible luck in the last 18 months. In 07 he was the team leader at T-Mobile and also leader 'on the road' in the TdF when he crashed and dislocated a shoulder iirc. It was bad enough to write off the rest of his season. Then last year he had a virus that stopped him from riding until the Olympics. So essentially another year gone.
I think he can have a good TdF this year. I've seen him say that he wants a top 5 finish on GC. I think he has a good shot at it, but there's some good riders he'll need to push out of the way to get it. It helps that he has some quality helpers in Kirchen and Hincapie, but the team will also support Cavendish (for obvious reasons). It'll make life hard for Hincapie who will probably have to help both of those guys. Sprint lead out man and mountain domestique, OUCH!

Not much to say about today's stage. Sprint finish and Thor got the job done.

 

[pancakeman]

Re: The REAL Star of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California

Armstrong is only 30sec back. He's not out of the picture.

Well, no, but he has said many times he is working for Levi.

I wouldn't expect much effort from Vandevelde, but maybe a decent performance in the TT. His prologue was terrible, I know he's capable of better.

He does deserve soem credit, he did hold the wheel when everyone else got dropped.

Definitely, but holding a wheel does not make him a prodigy. It would seem it makes him better than all of Levi's opponents, though.

Only Landis is in a similar position, ie its the biggest race of the year for his team.

Yeah, like I said, he's totally out of the running. I think it was something like 6 minutes down yesterday, so he is out of it.

 

[mythos]

Re: The REAL Star of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California

Armstrong is definitely riding for Levi, but if I was Levi, I'd be wanting to make sure that Lance didn't gain any time on me in the TT.

Yup, Landis is out of it. The point I was trying to make is that out of the contenders, Levi and Landis are the two with the most motivation going into this race.

And I also agree that 1 win does not a prodigy make!

Now my boy is squawking so I have to go get hime to sleep.

Bring on the TT!

 

[pancakeman]

Re: The REAL Star of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California

Yeah, I can't wait for Solvang. I'm actually sort of split on that one, Lance was always phenomenal when it came to time trialing, but Levi is simply amazing. He won both the TTs at the Vuelta, and could have won the rainbow jersey had he had some time between the Vuelta and the World Championships. I'm not sure Lance can match him, but we'll see.

Oh, Landis definitely had motivation, you're right. It would seem what he lacks is climbing legs. Maybe he's just in bad form this early in the season, but on a continental squad like OUCH, does it really get more important than the Tour of California? What would he be saving his legs for?


EDIT: About yesterday's stage:
I feel really bad for Freire and Kirchen, they love the classics and now they might miss them. Now Rabobank has nobody to ride for, so they might just wig out and start doing crazy ****. I hope they do.
Also, Vandevelde was caught at the back and crashed. I know he's not out for a win, but riding at the back is always described by the commentator guys as stupid, especially when you are the team captain. (BTW, he did put in an attack yesterday, early in the stage, but they reeled him back in.)
Cavendish got his win, so he must be happy. He almost lost it to Boonen, if he had I would have laughed. I was surprised to see Tyler Ferrar in the mix on that one, he struck me as more of a George Hincapie, Classics and domestique kind of guy.

 

[Kaysaar]

Re: The REAL Star of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California

Cavendish got another win today, beating Tom Boonen by over a bicycle length. It was a fairly uneventful stage - the predictable breakaway that gets gobbled up by the peloton a few kilometers prior to the finish line. Cavendish does have a great lead up team - they launched him into the running, and the final rider blocked Boonen's optimal path enough to give Cavendish the space he needed to win. It was a perfect example of team cycling.

 

[pancakeman]

Re: The REAL Star of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California

I agree, wonderful teamwork. A bit boring to watch, but still pretty cool to see it done right. I didn't think you could really beat Thor Hushovd's lead out from stage before last, but this one was even better.

Tomorrow is the TT, predictions? You guys already know mine, I'm sure.

 

[mythos]

Re: The REAL Star of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California

Yup, Cavendish looks to be riding well. He was a couple of very handy lead out men in Hincapie and his last guy is Mark Renshaw. Renshaw is an Olympic gold medalist in the 4000m teams pursuit. He was part of the Aussie team that completely dominated pursuiting for about 3 years. At one stage they were a full second faster than anyone else. Now the Brits own the event. What I'd love to see is the two teams at their prime go head to head. Drools.
Having that pursuiting background means is he can pull REALLY hard at the end of a stage stopping anyone from going over the top of him and his sprinter. Bascially, he picks Cavendish carries him to the line and says 'there you go, enjoy the win'. A lot of the best lead out guys are ex track riders. Pettacchi's team used to do this very well a few years ago. It also helps that Cavendish is probably the fastest guy around in the 150m of a stage.

I think Landis lost most of his time due to a flat tyre. Not getting dropped, but I could be wrong there.

Good news on the doping front. Those useless 'frogs' have finally gotten round to suspending Schumacher. What a joke that has been. Its taken them 7 months to process a straight forward doping violation. Next time ASO want to piss the UCI off they should think twice, because clearly the French Cycling Federation can't handle a case in a timely manner.
Also, Valverde is looking terribly guilty. The Italians have matched his DNA to one of the Puerto bags, which is bad enough. But, they also found EPO in that bag. He went to a hearing the other day, but refused to answer questions. Hmmm.
My question is, what happens to all of his wins between '06 when the case first came up and now? Surely they are void? He's won a few big races in that time. Secondly, WTF is up with the Spanish? Those guys don't give a toss about catching guilty Spanish riders. They were fine with Basso and Ulrich getting caught, but they covered up for Valverde. I have my suspicions about another big name Spanish rider who rode for Manolo Saiz (the team owner at the heart of the Puerto case). His name was listed as being involved, but quickly got removed. He may be innocent and I may be unfairly judging him as guilty by association, but I won't be satisfied until they compare some DNA samples. They should do it for all pro riders, actually. Sort the mess out once and for all. If only the Spanish would let them..........


TT Predictions - Its only 24k. I think Levi will win. Other than that I really don't know what to expect. But I can't wait to see how Rogers/Armstrong go. Just so we can gauge their form for later in the year.

 

[pancakeman]

Re: The REAL Star of the 2008 Season: The Tour of California

Yeah, they're really looking out for their own. Unforunately, they must have gotten the definition of that phrase terribly mixed up, because they think it means "to turn a blind eye to cheating".

If you're thinking of the same rider I'm thinking of, I read that a teammate of his was caught doping, and that theu found a bag with the initials of that particular rider alongside the bag with the initials of his teammate. So yeah, I have my suspicions about him as well.