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The Chance to find a skills Grand Charm

Discussion in 'Theorycrafting and Statistics' started by igorpotapov, Mar 29, 2004.

  1. igorpotapov

    igorpotapov Banned

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    The Chance to find a skills Grand Charm

    The Chance to find a skills Grand Charm.

    I have finished some calculations using Trugg’s 1.10 drop calculator and magicprefix.txt file. Results is here:

    The Chance to find a skills GC from NM Act 3 Council in the full game: 1:3084
    (=(1/114)*(1/2)*(21*284))

    The Chance to find a GC: 1:114
    The Chance to find a skills GC if you find a GC: 1:28
    (=(1/2)*(21/284))
    The Chance to find a GC with prefix if you find a GC: 1:2
    The Chance to find a skills GC if you find a GC with a prefix: 21:284

    Any comments? :scratch:
     
  2. FrustratedNecro9500

    FrustratedNecro9500 IncGamers Member

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    if ur really looking to get skill grand charms, just tear through the great marsh and flayer jungle in nightmare. wait til u get a grand charm, and use the 3 perf gem recipe to reroll the charm until u get a skill charm. it works pretty well, i've only done that a little bit and got a +1 curses and +1 defensive auras charm.
     
  3. igorpotapov

    igorpotapov Banned

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    Well, I considered cubing GC. To cube a skill GC you need about 28 trials or 84 perfect gems or 252 flawless gems.
    Another fact is that the chance to find a skill GC from lvl50 monster is about the same as the chance to find a skill GC from lvl110 monster. If someone doesn’t believe me I suggest looking to magicprefixes.txt file or at least to arreat summit. There are only few GC prefixes above lvl50.
    NM Council members are good monsters at dropping GC and flawless gems if not the best.
    Before I started that tread I had spent a lot of time at killing NM Councils. I use full Tal’s Sorc at lvl91 with 2xSOJ, Storm and classic Shaft+Gaze+Toll merc. She is able to kill all Councils in Act 3 with Mephisto in full game during 5 minutes period and check about 4 shrines for Gem. In my cube I hold lvl50 GC for cubing when I find 3 perfect gems. As result I find a GC roundly at 20 minutes. I mean time to find 10 GC from Cube, Councils and Mephisto divided by 10.
    I think Marsh and Jungle monsters drop very less GCs and you need more time to clear this hugest areas in the game.
    Now I have make/found exactly 60 GCs and have found 3 skill GCs (ama passive, necro P&B and pala Combat).
     
  4. Hakai_no_Tenshi

    Hakai_no_Tenshi IncGamers Member

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    WHOSE drop calculator ??? Considering how much time I spent writing it (with input from Thrugg), I think credit in the right place would be nice.

    --T
     
  5. Thrugg

    Thrugg IncGamers Member

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    :surprise: :lol:
     
  6. igorpotapov

    igorpotapov Banned

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    O! Sorry! :bonk:
    I misunderstood following:

    I realized it later but it was too late, I was unable to edit my post.

    Right credits is “ATMA 5.04c DropCalcâ€.
     
  7. chinaman1472

    chinaman1472 IncGamers Member

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    Theoritical and Reality get mixed up.
    I cubed a lightning charm with 12 pgems, that I got from Lister in Hell.

    Though, I think your best bet would just be NM cows. Plenty of PGems and charms to drop.
     
  8. igorpotapov

    igorpotapov Banned

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    Sorry, but I think Hell Bovines have terrible chances to drop a “misc†item (charm, gem)… Theoretically. ;)

    However, all my posts here came from practice.
     
  9. sangfagel

    sangfagel IncGamers Member

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    After 28 trials probability to get this kind of charm is ~0.638789373. I suppose it´s clear for you but I belive that some of us was accidentally playing LoD under scool time :lol: and can understand you in this way that they just SURELY will get a skiller after cubing 28 times.
     
  10. igorpotapov

    igorpotapov Banned

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    O! Yes! I mean AVERAGE numbers, of cause.
    At any post about chances of something author must say that he mean average numbers. This rule must be used in your post to. ;-)
    For example, if I will do 28,000 cubing of lvl50 GC I will get ABOUT 1000 skill GCs. However there is a very little chance that 28,000 trials will give me ZERO skill GCs ((1-1/28)^28000)!
     
  11. Pent

    Pent IncGamers Member

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    if it helps, I've cubed 3 grand charms with +skills from lvl 50 monsters (flayer jungle)
    within about 24 pgems
     
  12. chinaman1472

    chinaman1472 IncGamers Member

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    28,000 cubings = 84,000 pgems.
    On top of that, you'd need 1000 skill gcs
    On top of that, that's after lots and lots of trials. For a while, there could be gaps where you don't get any or gaps where you get a lot.
     
  13. igorpotapov

    igorpotapov Banned

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    Yesterday I did some more tests using modding.
    Simulation of Grand Charm drop by lvl50 monster was done with help of Quill Rats, Fallens and Zombies. They become lvl50 monsters and got Quill Rat’s drop, witch was modified to generate six grand charms per kill.
    I did 10 runs as I can hold only 10 GC at once. 9 GCs of 100 had skills. So 9:100 of GCs was skillers.

    In the real game I have collected 113 screenshots of GCs of NM Act3 monsters (mostly Councils’ GCs). 8 of them have skills. So 8:113 of real GCs was skillers.

    Real and simulation results together give 17:213. So, practical results without theory give following conclusions.

    The chance to find a skill GC is 1:13 per a GC dropped by lvl50 monster. (Practically)


    After that I set my laboratory white rats to lvl110 and collect 200 GCs. ;-) 10 of 200 GCs had skills. I have not found any 50life charm. Did they exist? And one charm was perfect – Natural Grand Charm of Vita (+1 Druid Elemental/+45 Life)!

    The chance to find a skill GC is 1:20 per a GC dropped by lvl110 monster. (Practically)


    So I can say that if you want to get a skiller you must reroll lvl99 charm (dropped by Hell Baal) or lvl110 charm (dropped by Diablo Clone). If you do so you have good chance (about 1:200?) to make really godly perfect GC (+1 skill tab/+45 life). If you roll lvl50 GC (dropped by NM Act3 monster) you have only slightly better chances at getting skiller, buy you must say “goodbye my dreamâ€.

    (Thanks to Thrugg for the idea of using modding as a tool of investigations.)

    In the conclusion I will say about my discovery of theory. Thanks to St0rmie for help and to Saidinhc for link to St0rnie’s article about charm rerolling. I doubt Sr0rmie allow me to quote the article here. :-(
    In my first post I forget about lower limit of Ilvl in prefix selection. If Mlvl is high enough low lvl prefixes will not be dropped. Another thing I forgot was spawnable column. In the game code there is prefixes like +7 to min damage GC (Bloody), however they are not enabled. :-(
    Using these corrections I got following numbers:

    1:22 – chance to drop/reroll a skill GC per an ilvl50 GC. (Theoretically)
    1:23 – chance to drop/reroll a skill GC per an ilvl110 GC. (Theoretically)


    Hmmm… It looks like I forgot something in calculations. However in his article St0rmie gives exactly the same numbers with my theoretical numbers. May be I must do 1000 or even more tests in the simulator?

    To be continued … ;-)
     
  14. Superhal

    Superhal IncGamers Member

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    i found 4 +skills gc's today (out of like 6?) doing nm worldstone runs in full games.
     
  15. Thrugg

    Thrugg IncGamers Member

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    With odds like 1/22 it is not significant yet to get 17 from 213 tries, although it is getting there. Interesting. You'd expect 10 with a std dev of 3. More than 2 sd.s above the mean is getting unlikely (which could indicate the theoretical odds are low).

    Of course, computer RNGs are by no means perfect. It is possible the way you are doing the test has some influence, generating several GCs at once rather than randomly spread out as it would be in a normal game. I'm not saying there is a better way to do your test, just that it is hard to estimate the scale of effect your method might have.

    If you did 1000 tests you would expect about 45 +skill GCs and a std dev of about 6.5 from the theoretical numbers. I'm not suggesting you do this, just giving you an idea of how much variation you should expect even with that many tests. It is hard to prove things statistically about low-probability events, such as specific D2 drops.

    I did want to ask about this line:
    Certainly as mlvl increase, lower level prefixes become less likely to drop, but as far as I am aware they should all still be available? Have you seen something somewhere that says otherwise?

    One last thing, about that +46-50 life Vita prefix - alvl is capped at 99 even if mlvl = 110. So that cannot spawn at all (unless you change its level).

    The bext Vita that can spawn, +41-45, is available at ilvl 91, so you do not need Baal GCs to get that, but you do need one from Diablo, Nihlathak or Baal.
     
  16. RTB

    RTB IncGamers Member

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    It happens, see maxlevel in magicprefix.txt and magicsuffix.txt.

    It's used for only a few affixes, and for charms only the lower +res all affixes have a maxlevel.

    The items generated by the mod aren't as random as those ingame, as less happens between Grand Charms drops.
     
  17. Thrugg

    Thrugg IncGamers Member

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    Well whaddya know :) Always learning...
     
  18. ayoko

    ayoko IncGamers Member

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    I believe the author of this article. NM Travincial. Best character to do this with.... probably WW Barb, with find item and no cold damage. Good footspeed in town to hit act 3 wp with passive skill increased speed. Extra drop chances with find item. Lots of flawless gems for cubing. Plenty of crafting goodies (jewels, runes, etc.).
     
  19. igorpotapov

    igorpotapov Banned

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    Well. As I promised in previous post I did 1000 tests yesterday, 41 skill GC was found. 41:1000 or about 1:24 is result. So I think that theoretical numbers are completely correct.

    The chance to find a skill Grand Charm is 21:460 (roundly 1:22) per an Ilvl50 Grand Charm (cubed or found).

    The chance to find a skill Grand Charm is 21:484 (roundly 1:23) per an Ilvl99 Grand Charm (cubed or found).


    By completing this researches I try to show that common idea of “you must do nm jungle runs to get best chances at skillers†isn’t completely right. NM Councils has the best chance/time ratio, so they are the best targets for skillers runs. Ilvl91 Grand Charms (Diablo, Diablo Clone, Baal and Nihlathak ones) have the best gain/time ratio.

    The End. Period.

    P.S.:
    Are Baal Council Minions and Baal Balrog Minions have native Mlvl=93 and Baal’s Minions (Lister & friends) have Mlvl=91 or all they have Mlvl=85 (area)? If so they are suited for GC selection to.
     
  20. Thrugg

    Thrugg IncGamers Member

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    Yeah, unfortunately Baal's minions are among the few monsters that have their "natural" mlvl reduced by the current system (the other obvious example being Pindleskin and several other Act 5 SUs). They do at least have mlvl ** (area level + 3), because they are superuniques. Even the pack minions get this bonus, not just the five pack leaders. But, level ** is still not enough for that Vita mod.
     

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