Starting to think something is wrong...

Knifinaround

Diabloii.Net Member
Had to sign up for these forums just to post the details of this situation and see what people thought because in my experience (having played D2 literally since release) this simply cannot be.

I started a MF blizz sorc a few months back on SP just to mess around with. Got her to **. (yeah I know I didn't need to go that high), and got her up to 390% MF before I started spamming hell meph runs on player 7 diff. (mixed with other runs just to keep things from getting too dull)

Been doing runs almost daily and keeping track of how many meph runs I've done over the months. Was going for the usual sorc MF gear.

Shako, Occy, Skullders, war travs, etc...

Well, earlier I hit 1000 runs and get this. NONE of these have dropped. Not a single one in 1000 runs.

I've found an arachnid mesh, a HoZ, a vampgaze, several shaftstops... but none of the gear listed above.

Skullders and war travs have always been tough to get, at least for me, but shako and occy? I usually get one or the other within 200 runs and now neither after 1000 runs?

My last ladder sorc was drowning in shakos after less runs than this. I must have found 3 in 500 runs easy.

I'm halfway through lvl 90 from all the playing I've been doing and not so much as an occy.

Something has got to be wrong it's as simple as that. Can meph bug or something to where he doesn't have a full loot table? Do I need more MF?

Edit: The two asterisks are supposed to be eighty-eight. When I saw them I figured I had hit the caps lock or something. It's showing as the numerical eighty-eight when I write the post but then it changes to two asterisks so... I dunno heh.
 

Fabian

Diabloii.Net Member
Hi knif, welcome!

Harlequin Crest has a 1/586 chance to drop per p7 Meph kill with 390 MF. Skullder's and War Traveler 1/1211, Oculus 1/1052.

So, after having done 1000 runs, it's pretty likely you will have found at least one Shako (81.9%), but the others are by no means a sure thing to find in that time (56.2% for Skullder's and War Traveler, 61.4% for Oculus). However, not having found a single one of any of those four is indeed very unlucky in 1000 runs, only a 1.33% chance.

If you've done 1000 hell Meph runs with 390% MF on p7 and have found 0 of all four items, then that is pretty sucky. However, 1.33% chances do happen every so often (once every 75 times!), so there's nothing wrong with your game. Keep running and I hope you get lucky soon!
 

Knifinaround

Diabloii.Net Member
Thanks for the answer!

1.33%... that's my luck. The kind of story I wouldn't believe if it hadn't just happened.

Looking on the bright side though, I DID get a HoZ xD
 

Fruit

Diabloii.Net Member
most likely just bad luck, like Fabian implied. you'd probably change your mind if you'd browse these forums :p rng is an unforgiving thing! (don't give up - they'll drop.)

also, the eighty-eight thing is censor. most here disagree (that it's necessary), but it is what it is. the story is: eight eight = H H = "Heil Hitler".
and:
I believe it was put in place by the forum software provider rather than by anyone here.
 
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Fabian

Diabloii.Net Member
It is pretty unlucky to not get those pieces, yes, but you did get a Mesh at least! I have a bit of a rant about statistics and how to interpret numbers like those, especially after the fact, but I'll save it for another time :) I do hope you get the items you're looking for soon.
 

maareek

Diabloii.Net Member
That fabnus, what a guy.

Keep in mind that not having any of those items drop in 1000 runs is still more likely than having any one of those items drop in any one run. Having any specific S/U item drop is actually much, much, much rarer than it seems and looking specifically for anything sets yourself up for disappointment and frustration. It's okay to vent over your bad luck, we all do it and need to do it from time to time, but at the end of the day it's just pretty rare for what you're looking for to actually drop and the answer is to keep on running.
 

drmalawi

Diabloii.Net Member
I know someone who has Seraphs hymn as an item left for Holy Grail (all set and unique items), that someone has Tyraels might, Dweb, Asterons and I think 2 or 3 Mang songs staff... so it is just RNG dude
 

BKC

Diabloii.Net Member
keep going :) you will get there no worries :) you can mix Ancient tunnels in the mix for a blizz sorc should be easy enough for you :)
 

TheNix

Diabloii.Net Member
MF can be a frustrating experience. When I started 1.14 fairly recently, I had two mat/pats under my belt and even though I was almost 80% of the way through the Grail, I had still not found a pair of Chance Guards (and when I did it was ethereal!).

Chance Guards
Chain Gloves
Defense: 33
Durability: 2 of 9
Required Strength: 15
Required Level: 15
Item Version: 1.10+ Expansion
Item Level: 87
Fingerprint: 0x61cdae5f
+24% Enhanced Defense
+25 to Attack Rating
+15 Defense
200% Extra Gold from Monsters
34% Better Chance of Getting Magic Items
+2 to Light Radius
Ethereal (Cannot be Repaired)

It is still the best of the few that I've found.
 
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Jocular

Diabloii.Net Member
I once did over a thousand cold crow runs in normal with about 120% mf on an untwinked sorc run through just to see how long it would take to find a gull dagger...I found a bunch of other TC3 uniques over and over again, but never got my gull :(

Keep at it, you'll get what you're looking for. RNG simply sucks sometimes!
 

Brak

Diabloii.Net Member
You can't say the RNG gods don't have a sense of humor though. My single pass barb has found both Gull Dagger and Chance Guards on his one run through

problem is, he's naked
 

krischan

Europe Trade Moderator
Skullders and war travs have always been tough to get, at least for me, but shako and occy? I usually get one or the other within 200 runs and now neither after 1000 runs?
Then you have been very lucky in the past and now you have to pay back all the luck you have used up so quickly - with interests :).

1.33%... that's my luck. The kind of story I wouldn't believe if it hadn't just happened.
It's a matter of selective memory and the picking of a few statistical incidents out of a great many.

Here's my favourite bad luck story: When I started on SP a few years ago, it took ages to find a 0 or 4 socket monarch. I found basically every kind of monarch before, with 1-3 sockets, ethereal, magical, rare and a Stormshield. I even completed Tal's set and found a few HRs before. As a small compensation, the very first attempt at Spirit was a 35% one.

Most lucky event: About 10 or 12 years ago, I found three Mara's within one week. It were three 30% ones in a row. The chance for a perfect triplet is 1 in 1331 - not counting the amount of luck needed to find that many (or even just one!) in such a short time.

Looking on the bright side though, I DID get a HoZ xD
I have an almost obscene abundance of HoZes by now, so that I'm dropping the worst from my stash each time I find a new one. It's the same with 0/4 socket monarchs. Fortuna is mocking me!
 
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