Sockets & My 45res Sacred Targe

[Odd the Quiet]

Sockets & My 45res Sacred Targe

I found the shield(no sockets) while doing a Hate Key run.
I want it to roll with 3 sockets when I cube it but the chances of that are small.

What can I do with it if it gets 1 or 2 sockets?
How much is it worth if I get 4 sockets?
Should I give it to Larzuk and have him socket it, and keep looking for a natural 45/3 shield?

Everything is ready to go in my cube but I can't bring myself to push the transmute button.
I would appreciate some advice/encourangement.
What is it in my best interest to do?

 

[Xenon[XoA]]

45/4os sT's are worth quite a bit on ladder, for spiriting since it has the highest base block (60%) of all the white pala shields. If it's 2os.. uh.. maybe a rhyme / splendor ? You're pretty much shafted if 2 or 1os on a cube roll.

 

[psych]

You probably have a good chance (but I am going with EU values here) that if you bring it to larzuk and make him make 4 sox in it you can trade it for a 3 sox one + some runes.

Find out the values and act in your best interest! Probably the demand for 0/4 sox is higher than for 3 sox

 

[krischan]

That trade would probably require a two step procedure, i.e. sell it for runes, then buy a 3 socket one for less runes.

It might be even better to make a 35% Spirit out of it and sell it for even more runes. Some people are willing to add more than 11 Spirit packs + 10 Hel runes are worth (the average needed to get a 35% one), so use that to your advantage.

 

[psych]

That trade would probably require a two step procedure, i.e. sell it for runes, then buy a 3 socket one for less runes.

It might be even better to make a 35% Spirit out of it and sell it for even more runes. Some people are willing to add more than 11 Spirit packs + 10 Hel runes are worth (the average needed to get a 35% one), so use that to your advantage.

You are probably right about the trade Krischan.

About the average to get a 35%fcr spirit shouldn't that be 5.5 spirit packs and 5 hels?

 

[PFS]

You are probably right about the trade Krischan.

About the average to get a 35%fcr spirit shouldn't that be 5.5 spirit packs and 5 hels?

There is a 1 in 11 chance to roll a 35% so he's basing his answer on if you roll 11 times you have an average chance to roll a 35%FCR spirit.

Which is semi-true.

You have a 9.1%chance to roll a 35% spirit, meaning you ahve a 91% chance to NOT roll one.

To work out the odds of rolling a 35% after X rolls you work out the chance of NOT rolling and subtract that from 1.

e.g:
3 rolls. Chance to NOT get 35% = (0.91)^3. Chance to get 35% = 1-(0.91)^3 = 25%
5 rolls. Chance to NOT get 35% = (0.91)^5. Chance to get 35% = (1-0.91)^5 = 38%
10 rolls.Chance to NOT get 35% = (0.91)^10. Chance to get 35% = (1-0.91)^10 = 61%

To have a 50% chance to have rolled one you need (1-0.91)^x = 0.5, so for 50% chance you need to make 7.5rolls.

This is just for one, over a long time when you ahve gotten MANY spirits from re-rolling the average will be 11 rolls per 35%, as the rolls you save from a spirit rolled on a first attempt (9% chance) cancel out the runes you spend rolling one on your 25th attempt (9% chance again) and so on for other successful attempt combinations.

 

[krischan]

There is a difference between the number of tries for a 50% chance and the average number of tries.

 

[PFS]

There is a difference between the number of tries for a 50% chance and the average number of tries.

The last paragraph was to give the average number of tries, but that only applies if someone is planning on rolling a large number of spirits. For someone planning on rolling only 1 spirit it is the number of rolls to get that one.

If he's going to roll 50 different 35FCR spirits then the average is the relevent component, but if he is only rolling 1 he'll have a huge deviation due to the small sample size, which is why I think the "Chance to Roll/X Rolls" is more important in this case than the "Average per 35%".

 

[krischan]

OK, so we were talking about different things and we knew it :azn:

But what would that number be good for ? It seems you are looking for the optimum number of runesets to buy when having only one chance to buy them while having a little runesets left as possible at the same time. That doesn't represent reality, however.

The most practical solution is to buy the amount which makes the person feel convenient about trading efforts (which doesn't have to be the number for a 50% chance) and then sell the excess runes. That would be buying runesets one by one at the one extreme and an infinite amount at the other (theoretical) extreme.

 

[psych]

Thanks for clearing it up guys, I was a little off...

 

[PFS]

I was thinking if he's going to roll one, and only one, Spirit then the chance of rolling the 35%FCR he's looking for would be useful to know for him to assess the risk in going that route as opposed to selling the shield for socketing, or for personal use if he's happy with a 34 or 33 (or other) due to his other gear making the extra un-useful as he already exceeds his breakpoints.

The 50% chance was not intended to point that out as an average chance (though looking back I should have made that more clear) but more to give the number of rolls they should expect to make for a semi-decent chance to roll a 35% spirit.

My one was more a risk-assessment for the roll, while your's is a valueation assessment based on a completed roll.

Both are useful - but for a single roll I think the risk assessment is more useful for descision making, but if you have say 10 or 20 Spirits you're rolling then the mean is more important for valueation assessment as the risk is largely eliminated.

For him he has to assess the 32% risk of not getting a spirit after 11 rolls against the value of the premium of a 11+Spirit Pack payed for a 35%FCR Spirit.

 

[templecrasher]

It took me 14 rolls to get a 35%, and that included 2 34%'s and a 33%. I actually needed the 35% to hit my last breakpoint though, so stopping wasn't an option.

 

[Quietus]

Odd, is this on East Ladder by any chance? If so, I'd be willing to trade for it, if you're up for that. Or if you transmute it and it gets 4 sockets, then I'll trade for it. Name your price.

 

[Odd the Quiet]

Yes, this is East Ladder.
My price is a 45res Sacred Targe with 3 sockets.
I still havent cubed it so I can take it to Larzuk.

 

[Quietus]

Yes, this is East Ladder.
My price is a 45res Sacred Targe with 3 sockets.
I still havent cubed it so I can take it to Larzuk.

Hm. I'll see if I can find one. Those'll probably be expensive. I may as well go ahead and look for my own 45 res sacred targe at that rate - I'll see what happens, but won't hold my breath. I was kinda hoping for more of a HR price. :tongue: Ah well

 

[Odd the Quiet]

It sounds like my best chance to get a 3 socket is to cube the shield I have.
So I did.

It recieved ... 4 sockets.
Better than one or two but not what I wanted.

My big idea for v1.12 is Larzuk giving custom nuber of sockets instead of max.

 

[SoulSurvivor]

on useast ladder I recently sold a 4os 45 res (non eth) elite shield for 8 HRs - don't be too disappointed