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Republicans and Democrats are idiots when it comes to Iraq, and I'm pissed off!

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Yossarian, Apr 4, 2007.

  1. Yossarian

    Yossarian IncGamers Member

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    Why do you assume someone has to lose out?

    Map of oil reserves in Iraq
    http://images.search.yahoo.com/sear...peg&no=11&tt=42&oid=66fe769b85f38438&ei=UTF-8

    Here you have a map of ethnic division in Iraq
    http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iraq/images/iraq-ethnic-map.gif

    Following the lines of where everyone basically lives now, you give Northern Tigris and part of Kirkuk to the Kurds. The rest of Kirkuk and Baghdad's oil goes to the Sunni. The Shia get most of the fields in W. Qurna. So the answer to your question is. Everyone gets lots of oil, nobody loses out. The Kurd state is basically already carved out, so 1/3 of the job is done.

    They'll have something to lose. Right now they don't.

    Of course they will. No matter what happens that will be the case. All plans have that as an element of danger. Under your logic nothing should be done because Iran is treacherous. To extend that thought process nothing should ever be done because of variables. Not a good way to go as whether you do anything or not the rest of the world keeps moving and you'll just get left behind.

    Please list me, say 10. I keep reading here about how nothing will work because of variables. Yet mostly, I see nobody lists them. If there are so many, 10 important variables should be an easy list to amass.

    Here I'll start you out.
    1. Oil distribution
    2. Foreign neighbors influence
    3. Ethnic fighting

    There now you only need 7 more.
     
  2. Module88

    Module88 IncGamers Member

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    Should the oil be divided equally? Or should it be proportional to the population? Which solution is the perfect one?

    They don't? The safety of their own family, themselves? The well-fare of their own country? Their own infrastructure?

    No, under my logic, I wouldn't flip a coin and hope for the best.

    4. The already significant loss of Iraq's trained elite (many doctors and other professionals have left the country).
    5. Already damaged infrastructure which has lead to lack of power, running water, and proper health facilities in many areas.
    6. The lack of safety for a vast majority of the population and inability to educate kids effectively or provide for the security of families (in other words, what choice does anyone have to fight- their kids aren't safe, their families aren't safe, they aren't safe, they don't have even basic utilities in any reliable degree- what is there to do?).
    7. Corrupt military and police death squads running around committing "cleansings" (as opposed to actual fighting)
    8. Lack of security forces (an effective military) to protect the nation as a whole from economic exploitation.
    9. The view of other Middle Eastern countries in which destabilization is not in their best interest for fear that it could spill over or spark a regional conflict.
    10. The advantage Iran would gain by a division of Iraq in terms of its ability to gain and project power (economic and military) to the region as a whole and assist it in its quest for power and regional control.

    All of these factors contribute to why a divide won't bring peace and won't stop them from fighting each other. So what if everyone is happy with, say, an oil agreement? Your family still lives with nearly nothing, let alone a stable source of electricity or power. Your kids aren't safe in school (or going to and from school). You may have already lost everything you've had. Why would trying to put people in different places (presumably forcibly) solve anything? Dividing Iraq won't solve anything.

    Now personally, I don't think we can come to a solution. So what then? Well, obviously, we should try to minimize the negative impact of whatever decision we make. Iraq can't be saved, but we can try to protect our interests and the stability of the region and do our best to prevent Iran from gaining a significant power advantage over the other nations in the Middle East. I'd rather not get into detail (at length at least) about that, but suffice to say that it'll require some dirty work on our end. But then, we've been doing that for a while, so that shouldn't be a problem.


    We made a mistake. We can't fix it, but at least we can try to make the best of it and own up to it.

    Don, if you've argued with me, it hasn't been for a year (or very long, for that matter).

    Note: This works under the presumption that "LOL" and "that's just funny," and anything along those lines is not an argument.



     
  3. Yossarian

    Yossarian IncGamers Member

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    You yourself say the infrastructure is gone. As for the rest, I'd suggest you're making the same mistake most do. You are placing western values on a very non-western country. Family and nation is hardly king in the M.E.

    What would you propose be done? Oh I see near the bottom...
    Oops sorry, bye bye now.

    Ya that will do wonders for America in the short and long-run. As big a cluster**** as Bush has made of Iraq, the absolute dumbest thing to do, for U.S. security, is to leave now. It's also likely the worst thing to do to the Iraqis too.

    If you don't mind I'm going to repost the list in a simplified form.
    1. Oil distribution
    2. Foreign neighbors influence
    3. Ethnic fighting
    4. Professional and educated are few and far between
    5. Infrastructure is damaged
    6. See 3
    7. See 3
    8. See 1, 2 and 3
    9. See 2
    10. See 2

    So to some up what you added. Iraqis are mostly uneducated people whose stuff is all broken. Which I would somewhat concede. But the next 5 were just reiterating the first 3 in more detail.

    You seem to be very scared of Iran (as you should be, because they were always the the true danger) and propose the U.S. focus on them. You do realize that even with a full withdrawal from Iraq that that will take at least a year and will involve a lot of boots on the ground again right? Bombing is not really an option. Iran needs to be dealt with on a diplomatic level unless they pissoff the rest of the world a whole lot more. The U.S. presence in Iraq makes it easier to show Iranian involvement and thus get the rest of the world involved. If the world makes efforts to pacify Iran than a lot of Iraq's problems start to get a whole lot smaller.
     
  4. Bortaz

    Bortaz Banned

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    In my 8 or 9 years of college, I've had some pretty stupid professors. I'm just sayin'.
     
  5. WildBerry

    WildBerry IncGamers Member

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    Is this people's cue to snicker or are you honestly just saying?



     
  6. Bortaz

    Bortaz Banned

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    I'm just sayin' that being a 'college professor' doesn't necessarily mean you're not a dumbass, and doesn't necessarily give you credentials in any particular argument.

    I have the education necessary to teach on a college level. I do not have the knowledge/experience to cure the ills of the Iraq situation.
     
  7. WildBerry

    WildBerry IncGamers Member

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    Okay, thanks for the answer. So I snicker here, that okay with you?



     
  8. Bortaz

    Bortaz Banned

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    You have free snickering will, as far as Bortaz is concerned.
     
  9. WildBerry

    WildBerry IncGamers Member

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    :snickers:



     
  10. llad12

    llad12 IncGamers Member

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    There are some serious flaws with that analysis Yoss.

    While the oil field maps you linked illustrate the geographic extent of the productive oil fields in Iraq, they do not show their reserves, current deliverability, or the area's exploratory potential.

    The Basra area (which includes the W. Qurna Field) in Southern Iraq is by far the most prolific petroleum area in Iraq. It contains proven reserves of 65 billion bbls or 59% of Iraq's total proven reserves. If the contiguous Mesan and Naisiriya Fields of southern Iraq are added, then the known reserves jump to 79.4 billion bbls or 71% of Iraq's total reserves.

    In contrast, the giant Kirkuk Field area contains only 12% of Iraq's total reserves while the Baghdad Field reserves are even less: 5.8%

    As any petroleum geologist can tell you... reserves within fields are not evenly distributed.

    Iraq has considerable exploratory potential. To date, only about 1/4 of Iraq's known structural features have been tested. While no one can be sure of exactly how much recoverable petroleum exists before said features are tested with the drill bit, the southern Basra area is believed to contain the best exploratory potential for future reserves.

    In addition, nature does subscribe to man's arbitrary lines for nations. Many of the known but untested anticlinal structures overlap onto more than one of your new "national boundaries". If found productive, these fields could be of areas of considerable contention as producing wells could be potentially situated within two nations and in direct competition with one another. In order to obtain maximum efficiency and reserves, unitization of oil fields is critical to mantain subsurface pressures (as well as being necessary for secondary recovery operations). Without such measures, the economic life and ultimate oil recovery within said fields can be drastically reduced.

    Stick to what you know Yoss, and leave the petroleum to the pros.

    For your reference



    With my compliments,

    Llad :thumbsup:



     
  11. Dondrei

    Dondrei IncGamers Member

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    That's very idealistic of you. I think Iraq has a long way to go before it's even close to ready for that. The U.S. was an entirely different situation.

    More likely they'll just embroil themselves in an endless war over territorial disputes.

    Yeah, me too, so much for the prestige of that position.



     
  12. Bortaz

    Bortaz Banned

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    Exactly my point.



     
  13. Module88

    Module88 IncGamers Member

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    Yes, but that doesn't mean that all buildings in Iraq have been flattened... And believe it or not, people in the Middle East actually care about their families and their country. Or do you suppose they're fighting us because we're tarrists?

    You'll have to excuse me- some other time. I've been posting a lot lately, and I'd rather not get into another long debate for the moment.

    How exactly does your solution improve U.S. security, if that's you're main concern.

    .6 The lack of safety is not equivalent to ethnic fighting. There are plenty of countries that are largely safe despite the fact that government forces are engaged with guerrillas or other militant organizations.
    7. Genocide is also not equivalent to ethnic fighting. The fact that there is widespread corruption (which is also not equivalent to ethnic fighting) means that the government (so long as it is seen as corrupt by the populace) will never be able to assert its authority effectively.
    8. The lack of a military capable of defending Iraq as a whole from foreign incursion is hardly equivalent to oil distribution, foreign influence, or ethnic fighting.
    9. The fact that other nations are nervous about the situation is hardly equivalent to foreign influence. Other nations do NOT want to see Iran take control of the Middle East, but the fact that this is true is hardly equivalent to them sending military forces to intervene in Iraq.
    10. The same thing. Iran growing stronger because Iraq isn't in its way isn't the same thing as Iran intervening in Iraq (although that is also a problem).

    They're actually different concepts and issues. Of course, if you want to say for number two, "anything that has to do with foreign countries," you can do that, but that's a little absurd.

    When the hell did I propose that? And who said I was scared of Iran?



     
  14. Yossarian

    Yossarian IncGamers Member

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    Just imagine what they thought when it took you take long to get your B.A. :flip:


    Llad


    Absolutely and I'm sure you'd know more about the actual number here than I. However the Kurds interests is solely in the North and they can basically be removed from the Southern equation. Which basically means dividing the Southern supplies up amongst the Sunni and Shia. Difficult? Likely, but no doubt possible. Of course Kuwait will be involved in that since that was the "reason" for the Iraq invasion ie slant drilling.

    I'll give the file a read through later. Too busy at the moment.



    **

    Of course a few do, however out of the hundred that I've know, about half know the names of their mothers and sisters. Not quite the same thing as Western culture.

    I'd expect it to improve stability within Iraq. That stability believe it or not goes a long way toward having Muslims not hate America. As long as it's the cluster**** it is, Iraq is a flashpoint and rallying call for fundamentalists. If the country could actual become self governing and begin to reenter the international community it'd go a long way toward calming the world situation.

    Well from here and you're other references to Iran.



     
  15. Talga Vasternich

    Talga Vasternich IncGamers Member

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    Llad...Could you for once come up with a solution to a problem?
    All I've ever seen from you is how someone else is doing it wrong.



     
  16. Cheesehed

    Cheesehed IncGamers Member

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    yoss im assuming you are referring to the articles of confederation, which were a huge failure and didnt last. I think the best example of a confederacy working is with Yugoslavia, which faced many of the same type of ethnic problems Iraq has.
     
  17. Bortaz

    Bortaz Banned

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    Yugoslavia was a success?
     
  18. WildBerry

    WildBerry IncGamers Member

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    His gripe was that sharing the fields among the Kurds, the Shia and the Sunni according to their usual places of residence will produce disparity. The obvious solution would be forced transfers and I think you can dig why llad12 doesn't propone them.

    I can't say I agree with him day-to-day, but I think this time his gripe had some substance: his trying to show that there is no simple way out for the dilemma, and to propose a solution after that would sound kinda high'n'mighty.

    As long Tito was doing his thing, no-one dared to argue. So if you give a dateline, it might be. I know the analogy is ill-crafted, but one hardly calls Roman Empire a failure even though it fell apart. I'm not juxtaposing the two, just saying that the failure is only a part of political entity's history, and often unavoidable, and one should take a peek at the other parts as well.

    Though I agree with you; the areas of Yugoslavia had been held together better during, say, the Austrian or Austria-Hungarian Empire.



     
  19. Module88

    Module88 IncGamers Member

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    If they didn't really care about their family members, they wouldn't be mourning them at their death, would they?

    Why? As far as I'm concerned, all you did to satisfy your expectation is say, "well, even though they won't get an equal share of the oil, once they have their own place (regardless of its conditions), they won't fight each other anymore." I think that's an absurd assumption. Policy should be directed by reason, not assumptions.

    Oh. I don't mean military action against Iran (covert or otherwise). I mean Iraq. Preventing Iran from gaining a significant advantage in the Middle East will in part require that Iraq not fall under the control of Iran indirectly through it's support of the majority of the population- Shiite's.



     
  20. Yossarian

    Yossarian IncGamers Member

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    Yes or hiding behind their women as they shoot. Look carefully bright eyes and tell me the next time you ever see a funeral that involves a woman of any age that people give a **** about in the M.E. (You won't). Shooting and raping your own family members is not an odd practice there. Mothers and sisters supply sexual relief for teenage boys and brothers have shot many a brother.

    Take a look at Maslov's pyramid. It's not perhaps perfect, but it's easy to understand. Learn about human desires and what drives our actions. What ever it is you do for a living, I pray for your employer, that it has nothing to do with people, you don't seem to know anything about them.

    Well no worries than. Iran will just stir and weaken the pot until they have a chance for a military conquest in the future. They cannot takeover without a military effort. The other ethnic groups ensure that. They'll get covert support to help balance the situation.
     

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