Recorded all the drops

KillGorack

Diabloii.Net Member
Recorded all the drops

Did 100 Mephisto runs, and recorded EVERYTHING I put everything on a webpage linked below. Palladin with 533 MF.

Mephisto Runs Recorded

Next will be the same palladin with ZERO mf and ZERO Gold Find.
 

Wuhan_Clan

Diabloii.Net Member
I'd like to see a more in depth analysis of this information.

Perhaps expand on the uniques and rares found. Such as how many of the uniques were normal, exeptional, elite. From your data it suggests 3.4% of all weapons dropped were elite uniques (0.2*0.17*100%). If you also showed how many weapons were dropped in total after 100 runs, we could calculate a theoretical yield of elite unique weapons after 100 runs. Then we can compare this figure to the actual number of elite unique weapons that you found.

For eg. lets assume that 1 weapon dropped every run so a total of 100 weapons were dropped. That means you should have found 3 or 4 elite unique weapons. Lets also assume that 1 piece of armor was dropped every run. That would mean you should find 2 or 3 elite unique armors.

There is a bit at the bottom of the chart that says "Average Drop per run = 5.42 including everything." Does this mean 5.42 items were dropped per run on average? I would also like know of all the items dropped, how many were weapons and how many were armors and how many were other (potions, arrows, gold pile). <-- Also, was a pile of gold considered an "item" in your counting? You noted that 36 gold drops were recorded but were those 36 gold drops taken into account when you calculated Average Drop per run?


The reason I ask for these numbers is to test the independence of quality and grade. Our current theory looks like this:

We know that MF% affects the grade of items (and your 2nd test should prove this). We also know that MF% does NOT affect item quality (and your 2nd test should also prove this). IIRC, when an item drops, its quality is first calculated, then its grade is calculated. Even if grade was calculated before quality, the final result would still be the same. I understand that these 2 characteristics of item drops are mathematically independent events.

Although I have never myself looked into the code (mainly because I don't know how and I can't be bothered to learn how), I would believe that the quality and grade of an item are programmed as 2 independent events and my calculations above should be correct. If you then provided the % division of armors, weapons, other we could calculate the number of unique elite weapons (or number of any combination of grade and quality) you would expect after doing x number of runs.
 

Wuhan_Clan

Diabloii.Net Member
KillGorack said:
The exact sample of what I found is in the spreadsheet linked on the webpage (towards the bottom)
Yeah, I'm working on that now. Took me a while to realize that you had already used a lot of the cells I was trying to work in (the ones you whited out). Anyways, I'll post a summary soon. Too bad you didn't do the same for armor but this is enough data for now.
 

Wuhan_Clan

Diabloii.Net Member
Code:
			Magical			Set			 Rare				Unique 
			Normal Except. Elite	Normal Except. Elite	 Normal Except. Elite		Normal Except. Elite
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------			   
Theoretical Chances:	23.66%	 13.43%	 9.46%	2.00%	 1.14%	 0.80%	 16.66% 9.46% 6.66%		 8.50% 4.82% 3.40%
Theoretical Yeild:	 72	 41	 29	 6	 3	 2	 51	 29	 20		 26	15	10
Actual % (based on data):21.31% 3.93%	 16.39%	9.18%	 14.43% 0.00%	 9.51% 4.92%	10.82%		 0.00% 6.89% 2.62%
Actual Yeild:		 65	 44	 33	 12	 0	 0	 50	 29	 21		 28	15	8


This is a table that I created using KillGorack's Excel spreadsheet. This is a table for WEAPONS ONLY.

Total Number of Weapons dropped after 100 runs: 305

How to use this table:
Say you wanted to find out the % of elite set items ...
1.) you look under Set columns
2.) you look under elite column
3.) look at the row corresponding to Theoretical Chances:
4.) the theoretical chance 0.81%

Now lets say you want to find out how many elite set items KillGorack actually found ...
Steps 1.) and 2.) are the same as before
3.) look at the row corresponding to Actual Yield:
4.) the actual items he found in this grade/quality combo is 0


Descriptions:

Theoretical Chances - this is the calculated* indirectly (assuming that item quality and item grade are independent events) chance (in %) to find a certain combination of grade/quality

Theoretical Yield - based on the Theoretical chances for each grade/quality combo, calculates how many of these items you would expect to find after 305 weapons have been dropped

Actual % - this is the actual % of all items dropped that each combo occupied and is calculated** directly from actual data

Actual Yield - the number of each combo that actually dropped



* This assumes that statistically, the quality and grade of an item are independent of each other so if the chance for an item to spawn elite is 20% and the chance for it to spawn unique is 17%, then the chance for an item to spawn BOTH elite and unque would be 20% x 17% = 3.42%

** A total of 305 items were dropped. The actual number of elite uniques dropped was 8. 8 / 305 = 2.63%




Analysis/Summary after 100 Meph Runs with 533MF:

You can do see for yourselves that the theoretical values match up very closely to the actual values. Basically, this proves what we already knew as fact. I just wanted to create the table so that if you did x number of meph runs with 533mf, you should expect y % of all your items to be exceptional uniques (by looking up the figure from the table).
 

Oscuro

Diabloii.Net Site Pal
Wuhan_Clan said:
Too bad you didn't do the same for armor but this is enough data for now.
There is indeed data on armor, as well as potions, runes, gems, gold, scrolls, etc. It's on other tabs of the spreadsheet, I missed it myself too at first. Great job!
 

Wuhan_Clan

Diabloii.Net Member
Oscuro said:
There is indeed data on armor, as well as potions, runes, gems, gold, scrolls, etc. It's on other tabs of the spreadsheet, I missed it myself too at first. Great job!
Yeah, i noticed all the other good stuff once i started working. I'll do the armor too in a while but for now, the weapons table is up.

[edit] hmmm... he leaves out circulets and coronets at the side but there is no data so I'm not sure if he found any or not
 

Wuhan_Clan

Diabloii.Net Member
Ok, here is the table for Armor:



Code:
			Magical				  Set			  Rare				  Unique  
			Normal   Except.   Elite	  Normal Except. Elite	  Normal   Except.   Elite	  Normal   Except.   Elite
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Theoretical Chances:	12.62%	 5.96%	   4.73%	 15.06%   7.11%   5.65%	   19.94%   9.42%  7.48%	  6.51%	   3.08%   2.44%

Theoretical Yeild:	 17	 8	   6		  20	  9	  8	   27	   13	   10		  9	  4	   3

Actual % (based on data):6.77%	 8.27%	   8.27%	 18.05%   8.27%   1.50%	   21.05%   6.77%   9.02%	  8.27%	   2.26%   1.50%

Actual Yeild:		 9	 11	   11		   24	  11	  2	   28	   9	   12		  11	  3	   2
 

Vizier

Diabloii.Net Member
wuhan, I think that you are trying to prove empirically, has already been known mathematically.

I've read several other posts over the past months about the ability of each type of monster and the % chance they will drop from a given TC and it's quliaty level chances. It's all in the game code, and some of the regular posters here (Ruvanal (I think?) and alainpp (forget the exact spelling)) have posted these formulas in various places already. I remember someone posting here exactly what would drop from an Arcaine Sanctuary chest and the %chance of what type of item it was going to be and the quality chances of each item. If you're looking for a specific item, then have a look at the drop calculator at d2data.net. It isn't finished being updated for 1.10 (from what I've heard) but the results probably have not changed too much.
 
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