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Question about diablo 2 loot calc & what is the probability of this happening?

Discussion in 'Theorycrafting and Statistics' started by Divxman, Mar 3, 2019.

  1. Divxman

    Divxman IncGamers Member

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    Hello, first question is this, when looking at D2 loot calculators, for example, a facet, it lists that the probability of Hell Mephisto dropping a rainbow facet is 1:9811.

    Now, does that mean when I kill Mephisto, he has a 1:9811 chance of dropping a rainbow facet, or is it like this, when I kill Mephisto, and he drops a jewel*, then the jewel* rolls 1:9811 to become a rainbow facet?

    Secondly, today I had started a SP Mephisto run, and I got a peach 4/3 die facet, and on the very next run, an identical 4/3 peach die facet, what is the probability/odds of that happening?

    Thanks!
     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2019
  2. krischan

    krischan Europe Trade Moderator

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    When Mephisto drops an item in general, that's the chance to drop a Rainbow Facet. By the way, there are 8 different kinds of Rainbow Facets, each of them has that chance to drop.

    The chance for two facets of the same kind and the same bonuses should be something like 1 in a few tens of millions.
     
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  3. Divxman

    Divxman IncGamers Member

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    Thank you for the clarification on the d2 loot calculator!

    And second, that is crazy! In all my years of playing, I think nothing will beat that in terms of luck, including my life too. I would have rather won the lotto than find identical back to back facets (4-3 die no less, on HC)...but my love for the game makes it OK/awesome!

    Thanks again. Good luck
     
  4. krischan

    krischan Europe Trade Moderator

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    Te be precise, The chance I mentioned is the chance for going to Meph, finding a particular facet and then going to him again and finding an identical one. After you found the first, you are halfway through the lucky streak and the chance for finding another one of that kind with the same stats is just 1 in 9811*9 = 1 in 88299.

    BTW, I haven't considered the color of the facet.
     

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