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Percantage chance of rerolling a skiller

Discussion in 'Theorycrafting and Statistics' started by fahartle, Apr 10, 2005.

  1. fahartle

    fahartle Diabloii.Net Member

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    Percantage chance of rerolling a skiller

    I posted a statistics question in the newcomers forum, but I really think it should have been in here:

    I had a question about whether or not the economics are really in favor of rerolling GCs for skillers? It looks as if plain skillers average out to about a Pul (with the crap ones like curses balancing out the colds). If a Pul gets you 40 Pgems (or 13 rolls), do they pop up that often on an ideal Kurast GC (I'd think that that higher level charms, though capable of secondary mods, would have lower chances of rolling up a skill each roll)? Anyone ever expiremented to see what your chances of rolling a skiller are or know how the drop chances are calculated (would the precentage of a normal skiller drop be exactly the same as a reroll - that might be an easy way of figuring it)?

    Looking at the Battle.net stats page, it looks like there are 73 different prefix mods and 27 suffix mods (100 total). Out of those, there are 21 skiller mods, or about a one out of five chance (pretty good). But I'm not technically knowledgable of these things and it seems like different ways of calculating the drop chances would radically change this surely flawed knee-jerk calculation. Obviously having a lvl 50 GC would raise your chances, but does the game select a type of magical affix and then selects again a more specific level (i.e. skiller or poison damage and then picks the specific skill or 6 PD or 15 PD). If "skiller" is just one pick among all the different types (I count 28 of these), then your chances pretty well suck. And are the higher lvl affixes more difficult to roll up to begin with? Oy vey, my head hurts...

    Anyhow, if someone could shed some light on this whole activity, I'd appreciate it. Is it really a method to wealth or an activity for the already wealthy and more akin to gambling (with the odds stacked against you...). Seems that you statisticians here might now exactly what percentage chance of various mods are. Thanks guys!
     
  2. helvete

    helvete Diabloii.Net Member

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    Chanse is 1/23 or something like that. It's not 1/5 because some prefixes are more common than others, and only 50% of charms gets to have a prefix at all. 50% of charms get only suffix. (Greed seems to be very popular, haven't checked tho..)
     
  3. Sharaz

    Sharaz Diabloii.Net Member

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  4. FreezerBurn

    FreezerBurn Banned

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    i've never bothered rolling charms. i know people say the chances are 1/13 or whatever. but it's the same chance as a dropped charm being a skiller. i've only gotten 1 out of hundreds in the whole time i've been playing and that was today. at least it was a good one - lightning with faster run/walk.
     
  5. Sharaz

    Sharaz Diabloii.Net Member

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    i save my charms back, and when im full of pgems (on my 3 gem mules) ill roll al the ones im holding. ill usually end up with at elast 3 skillers before i run out of gems.

    how many days have you had 3 skillers drop from monsters? even if it takes a month to fill my mules with gems, do you find 3 skillers a month? i dont. but they sure as heck are easy to roll.
     
  6. helvete

    helvete Diabloii.Net Member

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    Errr.... Have you read this thorougly yourself?? It says 21/460 chanse (that's for ilvl 50 charms, higher ilvls are _slightly_ less chanse) of getting a skiller. That's not even CLOSE to 1/13 chanse, thats about 1:21.9 chanse. A baal charm would have ~1/23 chanse, if I remember correctly.

    And by the way, this same topic has been discussed a hundred times, and then a hundred times over in this forum. Next time, search for "skiller".
     

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