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odds of gambling a SoJ ?

Discussion in 'Theorycrafting and Statistics' started by Zephyrin, Jun 9, 2005.

  1. Zephyrin

    Zephyrin IncGamers Member

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    odds of gambling a SoJ ?

    Since my sorc reached lvl92, in each run I make I have gambled rings at Gheed's and Anya's.
    It looks like I spent zillions of gold already, but still the best I got was a Nagelring and a few rares not even worth muling.

    What are the odds of gambling a SoJ at Gheed's and Anya's ? I know that the clvl affects the chances. Is the formula known ?
     
  2. Myrakh-2

    Myrakh-2 IncGamers Member

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    IIRC:
    The chance of gambling a unique is 1/2000.
    The chance of gambling a set is 1/1000.

    After that, the normal rarity applies
     
  3. Aerath

    Aerath IncGamers Member

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    In which case you'd have been better off keeping your sorc a lower level if all you are after is that gambled soj, since now you opened up the possibility for a high level ring as well.

    However, a lvl 92 sorcy should be able to run NM Andy quite easily ;)
     
  4. krischan

    krischan Europe Trade Moderator

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    For an optimum gambling result, the character level has to be L44-48. Above that level, Ravenfrosts and Dwarfstars are possible, reducing the chance for SoJs and below it, SoJs appear with a lesser chance or not at all. At L44-48, 1 in 31 gambled unique rings are Sojs (1 in 16 in a game where either a Nagelring or Manald already dropped and all unique rings in a game where both dropped).

    That means, this might be a good SoJ gambling strategy (which does not mean it's a good strategy in general):

    1. Do MF until Manald Heal and Nagelring have dropped in the same game.
    2. Come in with a L44-48 character and gamble for rings.
    3. When all gold is gambled away, let the char do some endless task to perm the game while you are gathering new gold in another game on a second game instance.

    You will need an average of 2000 tries in such a game. With an Edge bow and a perfect -price Gheeds, you pay 30% less, i.e. 35,000 gold per try and 70 million gold per SoJ (plus lets's say 20,000 sec = 5.6 hours seconds of gambling time and 200 minutes = 3 hours of gold find and 30 minutes of muling etc.)., i.e. 9 hours of work - providing you finally have such a game. Else it's 16 or 31 as much time and resources !
     
  5. SharnMes

    SharnMes IncGamers Member

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    In short to above post : Dont bother...
     
  6. jiansonz

    jiansonz IncGamers Member

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    I do not think this is true. I think the chance would still be 1/31 for any unique ring. If a Manald Heal had dropped in that game and you rolled one when you gamble, won´t you get a failed unique ring then, i.e. a rare ring.

    I think someone tested this. He modded the game so every monster dropped a unique ring. From lvl 45 monsters, he would usually get a sequence like this:

    Manald
    rare
    Nagelring
    rare
    rare
    rare
    ...
    ..
    SoJ

    If it had worked like you suggests, he wouldn´t get any rares.


    You are right about the optimal character levels, though. The probability that a gambled ring is an SoJ would be 1/2000 * 1/31 = 1/62000

    Good luck.
     
  7. krischan

    krischan Europe Trade Moderator

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    If you are after SoJs only and you have a game like the one I mentioned, this method might lead to quicker successes than doing Andy runs. You can gamble very quickly (once per 5 seconds with a little practice) and you don't have to create new games all the time (except for the gold finder). I guess nm Travincal will produce the most gold per minute and to avoid getting realm down errors, you might clear the nm cow level as well... all in 8 player games, of course.

    I wouldn't be surprised if there are bots for that.
     
  8. thegiantturtle

    thegiantturtle IncGamers Member

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    This is incorrect. if a manald and nagel have already dropped, you are no more likely to gamble an soj then if you start in a fresh game. For item generation, diablo follows this general procedure (greatly simplified, but in the same order).
    1) pick a base type
    2) pick a quality level
    3) if it has picked an item with multiple of that quality level (unique rings, set belts), take all possible options that can be created at whatever ilvl/qlvl and pick which drops based on it's rarity.
    4) if it's unique, check if that item has already dropped. If yes, drop a rare with triple durability (rings have a hidden durability, so you never see this.

    since the check for whether a unique has already dropped comes AFTER which unique is picked, a specific unique ring dropping will not increase your chance to get a different unique ring.

    What is increased is the chance a second physically dropped unique (not the second attempted drop by the game) will be the different specific one. It is actually less likely that a second unique will physically drop, but the chance for any unique that has not dropped will not change.

    [EDIT: cross posted with jiansonz. In that post you see the physical test, my post (poorly) describes the theory.]
     
  9. Zephyrin

    Zephyrin IncGamers Member

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    Before reading your posts, I was sure (from readings made long time ago) that there was a threshold (which I thought was clvl 92) above which gambling was more worthwhile.

    Is the 1:2000 ratio constant, and not dependent on clvl ?

    If yes, and I guess it is because I trust you all, I must have made some confusion with something else, maybe crafting.

    The good news is, I won't spend time any more gambling systematically. Just once in a while, as gambling should be.
     
  10. helvete

    helvete IncGamers Member

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    You probably confused it with crafting gambled amulets in order to have a chance of +2 character skills. At clvl 92, 9 out of 10 gambled and then crafted amulets have a chance of getting that +2 skills. (At clvl 91, 6 out of 10 have that same chance).

    /brag

    Did I mention that I've gambled 2 metalgrids, but never actually found one from a monster or a chest? :D
     
  11. krischan

    krischan Europe Trade Moderator

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    Hmm :scratch:

    To fully understand step 2, how is the quality level picked when step 1 produced e.g. a phase blade and what happens with respect to rings ?
     
  12. thegiantturtle

    thegiantturtle IncGamers Member

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    for the purposes of this discussion, you can read step 2 as: "Decide whether we want the item to be unique, set, rare, magic, plain, or low quality" or "Decide whether the ring is unique, set, rare, or magic"

    Step 3 is then: "if we're dropping a unique one, let's decide which"
    Step 4 is then: "Lets check to see if we've already dropped that unique. If we have, make it a rare with triple durability instead"

    Rings have a hidden durability field. Phase blades also have a hidden durability field (the indestructible property hides durability. Look at a BOTD runeword.)

    Triple durability rares also are created when there is no unique version of an item that the game wanted to make unique -> (like a katar or javelin)
     
  13. Ax2Grind

    Ax2Grind IncGamers Member

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    Say what?

    Under this theory, I can get three unique rolls on rings: the first a Nagel, the second a Manald. If those already drop and the only other ring the monster can drop on the third unique roll is a Stone of Jordan it should drop a Stone, period. If you're saying it could blow your unique roll right out of existance then WTF is the point of playing? That's the entire reason of staying in a game and getting those lower rings to drop first.

    Personally, I believe that formula/procedure/precedence to be extremely flawed.
     
  14. thegiantturtle

    thegiantturtle IncGamers Member

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    Flame alert!



    Your unique roll is not blown out of the water. Diablo II v1.10 does not allow 2 of the same uniques to drop in the same game. That is true for EVERY item base type. (There may be one exception to this rule. In 1.09, I know it was possible to get 2 or more of the same unique if they all dropped from the same monster, but i think that was changed in 1.10.)

    The checks are done in that order so as to not make it easier for the high rarity items to drop. If steps 3 and 4 were reversed, then one could force higher rarity items to drop. Blizzard specifically changed the way unique rings spawned in v1.07ish to eliminate this.

    I'm sorry the game doesn't live up to your standards. I still find plenty of reasons to play.
     
  15. krischan

    krischan Europe Trade Moderator

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    I didn't mention phase blades because they don't have durability, but because there are two unique phase blades. Anyway, I agree that it makes sense to prevent the rare uniques of the item class to drop more often just because the the not so rare ones already dropped.
     
  16. FirepowerZ

    FirepowerZ IncGamers Member

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    That's false, u can get 2 of the same unique from the same monster, boss in my case, as many times i've found 2 of the same unique from meph, sets as well.
     
  17. Superhal

    Superhal IncGamers Member

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    adding my own observation to the mix:

    clvl 86: 1 in 90 (or more, hard to keep track with that many) +2 skills ammy

    clvl **: 1 in 30

    if it is truly 9 out of 10 at clvl 92, then maybe i should spend a few more agonizingly boring days in baalruns. :)
     
  18. krischan

    krischan Europe Trade Moderator

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    I doubt that it's false, although I cannot say with certaincy. Even if you were right, I haven't said that in my previous posting anyway :p

    I found double set items in the same game several times, sometimes from the same monster, sometimes from different ones, but it never happened with respect to uniques so far, even from the same monster. We can just make guesses about the game server at bnet or draw conclusions from the code of the game engine on our local computers (used for singleplayer at home), but perhaps your memory is failing you.
     
  19. Ax2Grind

    Ax2Grind IncGamers Member

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    Wrong

    There's absolutely nothing in my post that could be interpreted as flaming.

    As for forcing higher rarity rolls, by definition if I have already gotten the roll for a phase blade to drop and gotten the roll for it to be unique from a monster capable of dropping a Lightsabre, then get both rolls from a monster capable of dropping Azurewrath in the same game, I deserve both unique rolls. The 'triple-durability rare' is supposed to be a back-up as a reward to the player when nothing else can be dropped (i.e. that second monster could only drop Lightsabre), not screwing you over when you've actually earned those incredibly hard-to-get rolls on the appropriate monsters by playing the game for such a long time.

    As for my standards, they are incredibly high. When people put out trash and make you waste your money and time playing it you tend to have a different view towards gaming than if everyone had those high standards and now and then something was wrong. With Blizzard, it seems half of the things they do are meant to screw players over.
     
  20. helvete

    helvete IncGamers Member

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    Playing Diablo 2 is much like a religion. Most of the time, your God (blizz) screws you over, but once in a while, you'll get JUST enough to keep you going.
     

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