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NM Andy soj question

Discussion in 'Theorycrafting and Statistics' started by MoRiNpHeN, Nov 1, 2006.

  1. MoRiNpHeN

    MoRiNpHeN IncGamers Member

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    NM Andy soj question

    Hey everyone, I've just started up d2 again and decided to mf for sojs :smiley: I've read that NM Andy is the best place for sojs, but after 500+ runs I still have not found it. I've only found 9 unique rings so far from her but they are all nagels or manalds. I have around 400% mf, is that affecting the drops in any way? Does Nm Andy still drop sojs at all? Just how rare is finding soj from her, its getting a little frustrating :undecided:
     
  2. Sgraffite

    Sgraffite IncGamers Member

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    If she drops a unique ring, the odds of it being a SoJ are 1 in 31 if I remember right. That means 15/31 it will be a nagel and 15/31 it will be a manald, or 30/31 times it will not be a SoJ.



     
  3. MoRiNpHeN

    MoRiNpHeN IncGamers Member

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    So theoretically, I should get an soj when she has dropped 31 unique rings?
     
  4. PhatTrumpet

    PhatTrumpet IncGamers Member

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    Not exactly. After 31 unique rings, there's approximately a 36.2% chance that none of them will be a SOJ. The 50-50 point is at around 21 unique rings. Of course, you could find 100 unique rings and not one of them be a SOJ, but this is fairly improbable (3.76% chance of occurring).
     
  5. MoRiNpHeN

    MoRiNpHeN IncGamers Member

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    Thanks for clearing that up, my next question is should I increase my mf%? Will I be able to find more unique rings?
     
  6. jinntonic

    jinntonic IncGamers Member

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    Yes, it would, but the slight increase in chance might not be worth the drop in killing speed.

    e.g.: Killing her Twice with 500 mf is better than once with 1000, because:
    1) with too much mf, your kill speed drops way too much
    2) diminishing returns on the increase in chance of finding unique
     
  7. krischan

    krischan Europe Trade Moderator

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    I think that's quite a confusing statement for people who aren't stats experts. The number of rings needed for a 50% SoJ chance might be interesting as well, but MoRiNpHeN wants to know how many SoJs are among a certain number of nm Andy rings on average.

    Yes, with stress on "should". With other words, if you find e.g. 31,000 rings from nm Andy, about 1000 of them should be SoJs. Not exactly (the average deviation is the square root of the average number of SoJs IIRC, i.e. 31.6), but the more rings you consider, the closer to 1/31 the portion will be.



     
  8. kaervek

    kaervek IncGamers Member

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    If you put it in a drop calc you should have about 1:1500 chance of getting SoJ which matches up with what you've done so far; gone 1/3 of the way and got approx 1/3 of the unique rings your likely to.
     
  9. MoRiNpHeN

    MoRiNpHeN IncGamers Member

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    Another question regarding this, what are the approximate chances that NM Andy will drop a unique ring in a run? Sorry I'm kind of bad at this statistics thing :undecided:
     
  10. MoRiNpHeN

    MoRiNpHeN IncGamers Member

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    actually I would like to rephrase that question, what are the chances that a ring from NM Andy will be unique? And sorry for double posting :sad2:
     
  11. Ax2Grind

    Ax2Grind IncGamers Member

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    Where's that thread about this subject? Would come in handy, now, wouldn't it?
     
  12. magnusthescott

    magnusthescott IncGamers Member

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    i do not believe there is a thread however there is a fairly decent guide in the strategy compendium under misc. i belive however it might be slightly dated and also uses the fact that nm andy's drop can be bugged to always occur as a quest drop
     
  13. MoRiNpHeN

    MoRiNpHeN IncGamers Member

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    I was slightly confused by that guide, it says that 1 out of 141 unique rings from Andy will by soj yet the chances are 1/31? :undecided:
     
  14. bloodyscissors

    bloodyscissors IncGamers Member

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    first soj I got I remember I was doing nm andy runs all day, back in the glory days of C3PO. got nothing, and then the next day I start playing and get one from a hell zombie >_>
     
  15. helvete

    helvete IncGamers Member

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    Base unique chance on quest drop is 10% (0%mf) and then MF multiplies it. But not by the listed percentage, since MF has diminishing returns when it comes to rare/set/unique
     
  16. Fearlessone

    Fearlessone IncGamers Member

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    Just to throw some cold water on all this. I went from 2002 until late 2005 without finding any soj's: well over 100 unique rings. I had found 4 in the previous year, mid 2001 to mid 2002. Then in Dec of 2005 I found 2 soj's in 2 hours. I found another 2 months later. It can be very frustrating.

    The night I found 2 of them, one was from a council member in Hell and the other from deSeis in Hell. I was alone the first time and with two other players on the second. And that is part of the strategy for success, minimize who can scoop up on your kills. Also eliminate any hammerdins or possible other pickit people. Dins always station themselves squarely in front of a boss, are well shielded and are stunning all the monsters around them with their huge damage: easy to hit alt and not have to walk over and get the item.
     
  17. costi

    costi IncGamers Member

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    Re: NM Andy soj question

    Well this is funny.I read about the soj andy thing and i decide to do a few runs.I do 10 1 ring drops nagel 16 and i have to go,i talk with a friend on the phone kinda nub rarely playing diablo and i explain nm andy.He starts to do some runs get's bored and on his 24th run guess what soj:)I try 30 when i get back home and i get banned cuz i did them to fast:) v 1.11.
     
  18. helvete

    helvete IncGamers Member

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    Re: NM Andy soj question

    Holy sh** that's necromancy!
     
  19. windz

    windz IncGamers Member

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    Re: NM Andy soj question

    actually increasing mf would be better IF u are only going andy because u don't want to join/leave games too fast or else R/D for ya
     

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