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LK, to pop or not to pop

Discussion in 'Single Player Forum' started by Brak, Mar 6, 2016.

  1. BRKO

    BRKO Diabloii.Net Member

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  2. Brak

    Brak Diabloii.Net Member

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    That's very cool. I'm p sure that is a chest due to the fire and the number of items (dont remember poppables being booby trapped except a few exceptions, cant find link right now). I think this indicates that you produced the Vex from a locked chest, and the previous iterations were its unlocked counterpart
     
  3. Treeharl

    Treeharl Diabloii.Net Member

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    Time to upload two of mine I did find two days ago. Nothing to spectacular Um from a skeleton and Gul from a stash... Both seem to be new patterns. We still need to confirm if logs or skelettons for example have the same or different patterns. My guess would still be for example that each different object has its own 65536 patterns with maybe an exeption on chests vs locked chests.
     

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    Last edited: May 24, 2016
  4. T72on1

    T72on1 Diabloii.Net Member

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    Btw, sometimes there's so much clutter on the screen from items and fold from the superchests that I'm afraid I won't notice a good drop and will miss it. How do you guys solve that problem?
     
  5. Brak

    Brak Diabloii.Net Member

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    pop corpses instead
     
  6. pharphis

    pharphis Diabloii.Net Site Pal

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  7. maareek

    maareek Diabloii.Net Member

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    There's a Grip post for that.

    Edit: Oh right, I've already linked you to that ... well then, I'm not really sure what else to suggest right off hand. :/
     
    Last edited: May 25, 2016
    T72on1 likes this.
  8. T72on1

    T72on1 Diabloii.Net Member

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  9. Brak

    Brak Diabloii.Net Member

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    So I'm reasonably sure that the chest patterns are likely truncations of the SuperChest patterns

    Chest Pattern:
    Mal #3 Chest(lk) Gold x 3 Mesh Belt (CR) Sac Rondache (Cr)
    Super Chest Pattern:
    10/11?

    Chest Pattern:
    Gul #1 Chest(lk) Amulet (M) Defender (Broken?) Gold x 3 Long Bow (Broken?) zticazzy
    Super Chest Pattern:
    Gul #3 Amulet Defender DmnhdGloves Long Bow (image link broken)

    Chest Pattern:
    Vex #8c Chest(lk) Bolts Chaos Armor (Cr) Gold x 3 BRKO
    Super Chest Pattern:
    Vex #5 Amulet Battle Staff Chaos Armor +4 Others

    Chest Pattern:
    Ohm #1a Chest(lk) Antidote Gold x 3 Mithril Point (D) Ral
    Super Chest Pattern
    1/4

    Chest Pattern:
    Ber #3a Chest Gold x 1 Great Heal Saber (LQ)
    Super Chest Pattern
    3?

    I couldn't compare the other three patterns we have because the image links are dead. What would really help would be to find a screenie of SuperChest Ber #3 because 1&2 do not contain a Sabre. It's presence or absence in Ber#3 would confirm or refute my theory (also finding screenies for Mal 10/11 and Ohm 1/4). Furthermore Ber #9 from a corpse is rather information rich containing a Pike and a Stag Bow. These also cannot be found in Ber 1&2. If they are absent from Ber #3 we would be able to, in my mind, solidly establish that poppables have entirely different spawning rules from Chests and Super Chests. While at the same time, LK Chests are simply portions of the Super Chests.
     
  10. Treeharl

    Treeharl Diabloii.Net Member

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    That is intresting, I never thought about that possibility! That would mean both superchests locked chests and regular chest would share parts of their superchest patterns indeed! Regular chests and locked chests are simpely capped by 4 or 8 picks. I guess if this is indeed the case that the patterns of all chests and locked chests are fixed and not influenced by a no drop ratio! I still do think however that mf influence the itemquality on these chests. Anyway nice going Brak!
     
  11. Brak

    Brak Diabloii.Net Member

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    And as usual, jjscud already knew all of this


    EDIT:

    Anyway, if my math and sources are correct odds of a Ber equivalent from a poppable should be:
    odds of a rune to drop, 1 in 300 (from ATMA, comparing to non-Hell Buzzard monsters in LK)
    odds of a Ber, 1 in 1475 for any given rune drop (from this chart of a Zod capable rune drop)
    the number of drops from a poppable, 2.93 (averaged the number from all non-HR screenshots in this thread, 41 in total)

    This gives me 1 in 150,024 poppable checks for a Ber rune
    Chests should then be 1 in ~90,000
    Super Chests are then 1 in ~21,700

    If you include runes below Ber, Poppables should start catching up with normal chests, but Super Chests become that much more Super with basically 5-6 Ber equivalents from the Sur runes alone.

    from the old threads, I saw jjscud stating that Super Chests were 25 times more favorable to poppables prior to 1.13, from my back of the envelope calculations that looks to be about 20 times more favorable currently
     
    Last edited: May 26, 2016
  12. Treeharl

    Treeharl Diabloii.Net Member

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    Hi Brak,

    I think jjscud is indeed fully correct with his statement. But still on the no-drop argument jjscud literary says including nodrops If the no drop argument would be true that would mean it is highly unlikely to get exact matches from super chests but we all know these patterns are 100% exact! What I think is the regular chests have the first 4 drops from the dropcycle and when a nodrop appears it always appear when a match occurs. That means we have 65536 regular chest patterns with the first 4 dropcycles from super chests and 8 cycles from locked chests and not 150,024. The fact from 20 times more favorable seems correct though! Could you Brak explain why you think the no-drop occurs when the pattern is generated instead of just 65536 pre-existing patterns related to the drops of superchests?
     
  13. Brak

    Brak Diabloii.Net Member

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    The no drop should be counted because all normal chests on p7/8 settings have a roughly 25% chance to be empty, meaning they dont query their loot tables. This is what changes the chests from a 1 in 65k Ber to 1 in 90k. This isn't talking about the No Drop chance from within the treasure tables.

    Where I'm getting the 150,024 number is treating the poppable as if it were a monster (ie use an appropriate treasure table for its alvl). From the Item Generation Tutorial it states that all poppables will drop from the appropriate chest TC (should be Act 3 (H) Chest B). I don't have the rune drop rate for any of the Chest TC's because none of the drop calculators get into poppables as they are complicated, so I just plugged in a place holder from a local monster. If someone could correct the base rune drop rate from Act 3 (H) Chest B, I'd be very appreciative.

    I dont think 20 times more favorable should be accurate though. The Superchests are pulling from the same TC, but it is just truncated. Assuming that the higher drop rates of 1.13 now have truncated Superchests approaching more representative drops and not noise like before (except all those Surs obv), the Superchests should just be like hitting about 4 poppables at a time (avg ~12 items per drop vs ~3).
     
  14. Treeharl

    Treeharl Diabloii.Net Member

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    Hi Brak, thanks for your explanation! This seems indeed valid to me and I believe the same happens to all kind of objects in LK. Still I wonder though if the 25% empty drops are added to the pre-existing patterns or are within the 65K patterns. I guess your statement is right.

    About the runedrop from Act 3 (H) chest B that would be the following I guess. Act 3 (H) chest B from it makes up to 4 picks has a 2/42 chance of dropping act 3 (H) goods from all the item possibilities there is also a nodrop of 100 (which I am unsure what that value becomes at players 8, I guess around 20) Whenever Act 3 (H) good is selected the chance of rune 15 is 14/130. That means if I say due to nodrop every dropping chests has an avarage of 3 itempicks that would mean that you have exactly an 1/65 chance of a runedrop. This would give nearly 1000 patterns where a rune drops from the dropping chests (to be exact 1008/65536) When you think that roughly 1% of all runes is a HR the expected value would be 10 patterns. So when popping regular chests the chance of finding a HR would be aproximatly 10/90K which means you could expect every 9000 chests drop 1 HR!
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2016
  15. Brak

    Brak Diabloii.Net Member

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    EDIT: Caught a math error in that odds for rune should be 1 in 200 not 1 in 50, table adjusted accordingly

    I certainly wouldn't take my word as gospel for any of this.

    I usually feel like someone from the Middle Ages trying to piece together things the Greeks already knew when looking into D2 related stuff

    But if I'm understanding the Act 3 (H) Chest B information you just posted that means, my 1 in 300 number should have been closer to 1 in 50 making odds 6 times higher than my estimate. So a Ber would pop 1 in 25000 clicks of a corpse, skellie or stash. This puts Ber odds in the ball park of Superchests (1:21,700), but Sur runes are then a lot better there; 1 in ~5,900 for SuperChests, 1 in 16,700)

    nm I'll just make a table then
    Code:
    Rune      ~Superchest odds         ~Poppable odds
    Ber       21,700                   100,000
    Sur        5,900                   66,800
    Lo        32,500                   74,000
    Ohm       13,000                   49,200
    Vex       10,800                   52,000
    Gul        5,000                   34,800
    Ist       10,800                   36,800
    
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2016
  16. pharphis

    pharphis Diabloii.Net Site Pal

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    Are you sure the chance of a gul rune isn't 1/5, and ist rune is 1/20k?
     
  17. Brak

    Brak Diabloii.Net Member

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    there are 13 Gul patterns and only 6 Ists

    For HR's there is a quirk in the drop mechanics that makes the higher teir lower 'quality' rune more likely to drop than the lower teir higher 'quality' rune. This is super amplified by the Sur vs Lo drop rates, and shows up again in the Gul vs Ist drop rates.

    That's why I was so gung ho about RoF. On paper there should be more Jahs than Bers
     
  18. Treeharl

    Treeharl Diabloii.Net Member

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    To add some information for people who don't have a clue what is going on I have uploaded my own LK map. At point 1 there is always a log a skeleton and a stash to pop, at point two a skeleton is there to pop point 3 is the same as point 1 at point 4 there is a corpse at point 5 there (locked?) chest and a skeleton to pop and at point 6 there is another corpse. These poppables are fixed. Usually some random poppables (Nearly always chests or stashes) exist on the route towards your superchests. If we say there are two stashes and a chest that means there are 13 poppables to pop every run. When you take the expected value of 1/9000 is 1 hr for every poppable that means you would get an aditional hr for every 692 runs you make!
     

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  19. pharphis

    pharphis Diabloii.Net Site Pal

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    This is also why I've found a total of 2 jahs in my life, less than 6 bers (I think) and at LEAST 20 sur runes.

    ~6 cham runes, too, iirc. 500k gul runes and less than 10 ist runes
     
  20. Gripphon

    Gripphon Diabloii.Net Member

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    This dropping odds from poppables seem too optimistic for me. Did someone do more testing to confirm they are comparable or almost comparable to superchests? So far what I've noticed is they are not really comparable, not even close. I might have been unlucky though. Now I can hit 7 standard poppables +1-2 extra per run and will be able to tell after few thousand runs are they really anywhere near superchests. If I had to estimate, I'd say by hitting like 4 poppables per run before, I found like 6 times more runes from superchests. That would mean 1 superchest is comparable to 4 poppables. But that is just some experience from my not so recent running. I've been ignoring poppables most of my career (and I started to ignore them for a stated reason - they didn't seem to drop much in comparison to superchests), but now I started to hit them again just for testing purposes to see how good they really are.
     

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