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LK, to pop or not to pop

Discussion in 'Single Player Forum' started by Brak, Mar 6, 2016.

  1. Brak

    Brak IncGamers Member

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    So zticazzy's recent post, and my long standing belief down in my subcockles got me thinking that it's about time to look into the benefits of hitting all the poppables at Lower Kurast. Since zticazzy clearly demonstrated that popppables are held to the same restrictions as the SuperChests (ie identical pool of drops, likely also numerated ~65k), I trawled through the last two Item Find threads and my old screenshot records to pull out high rune drops from LK in non-superchests. Note that I am making two major assumptions:

    1: All of these drops are from p7/p8. I know for all my drops this is the case, but for others I am assuming p7/8 because these are contemporary drops and it has long been established that this is a far superior setting for running LK.

    2: All poppables are created equal (aside from baskets, baskets are stupid). I know less about this assumption, but provide a tidbit of evidence arguing that at least some poppables are pulling from the same drop pool.

    Disclaimer: I stupidly only bookmarked the pictures, so some of these finds I do not currently have the information about who actually found the item

    Code:
    Rune       Source     Item 1     Item 2     Item 3     Item 4     Item 5     Item 6     Finder
    
    Pul #1     Skeleton   Gold x 1   Gothic Shield (Cracked?)                               zticazzy
    
    Ist #1     Chest?     Arrows     Gold x 1   Super Heal                                  ??
    Ist #2     Corpse     Flawless Amethyst     Gold x 1   Ring (M)                         Brak
    
    Gul #1     ??         Amulet (M) Defender (Broken?)    Gold x 3   Long Bow (Broken?)    zticazzy
    Gul #2     Log        Flawless Amethyst     Town Portal                                 Brak
    
    Vex #1     Skeleton   Bolts      Gold x 2                                               Brak
    Vex #2a    Skeleton   Gold x 1                                                          ??
    Vex #2b    Big Stash  Gold x 1                                                          Brak
    Vex #3     Big Stash? Flawless Amethyst     Ornate Plate (Crude)                        ??
    
    Ohm #1a    Chest(L)   Antidote   Gold x 3   Mithril Point (D)      Ral                  PandadueSP
    Ohm #1b    Chest(L)   Antidote   Gold x 3   Mithril Point (D)      Ral                  zticazzy
    Ohm #2     Corpse     Gold x 1                                                          Brak
    Ohm #3     Corpse     Coronet (Sup, Gray)   ID x 2                                      ??
    
    Sur #1     Corpse     Bolts       Gold x 2                                              locohead
    
    Ber #1     Corpse     Bolts      Chain Boots (LQ)       Ith                             Brak
    Ber #2     Big Stash  Great Heal War Javelin (Cr)                                       ??
    Ber #3     Skeleton?  Gold x 1   Great Heal Saber (LQ)                                  ??
    Ber #4     Stash?     Gold x 2   Two Handed Sword (M)                                   ??
    Ber #5     Big Stash  Gold x 2                                                          KO Bossy
    
    Pul #1
    Ist #1
    Ist #2
    Gul #1
    Gul #2
    Vex #1
    Vex #2a
    Vex #2b
    Vex #3
    Ohm #1a
    Ohm #1b
    Ohm #2
    Ohm #3
    Sur #1
    Ber #1
    Ber #2
    Ber #3
    Ber #4
    Ber #5

    So to sum all this up, if my assumption that all of these data come from p7/8 and all poppables draw from the same 65k pool, there are MORE BER's in the poppables than the superchests. So far there appear to be two patterns that we have replicated, the Ohm that started this and a Vex that dropped with only a single gold pile. Both of these replicates appear to have come from a different poppable supporting the idea that all popables are created equal. I would also be pretty big money that there are quite a few patterns still at large. I may try screening the 1.13 LK thread because just looking for the most up to date patterns there I found locohead's Sur rune from a corpse.

    Finally one small point. The duplicated Ohm pattern of zticazzy and PandadudeSP was pretty information rich. I know some have postulated that the poppable runes would be truncated versions of the Super Chest runes. But I cannot find any Ohm patterns from the Super Chests that contain either a Ral rune or a Mithril point. This would support the theory that there could be more Ber's in the poppables than the Super Chests themselves.

    Anyway, if you guys have any old screen grabs laying around, I'd love to have more data for this. In the meantime, happy popping!
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2016
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  2. zticazzy

    zticazzy IncGamers Member

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    I'm glad you started a thread about it, @Brak :) I'll try to add more screenshots in case I find them while lurking on the internet (the URL of Vex#2 seems to be broken, can you fix it?).

    Some considerations on the project:
    - one problem is to know the /p settings of each screenshot. More Bers doesn't necessarily mean more of them in the same /pX (even though most players run LK at p7 I suppose);
    - being the quantity of items in poppables so scarce, there could be more patterns that are identical in the composition but are actually different, see the Vex drop for example: 1 Vex and 1 gold pile is a combination that could've been easily generated twice by the algorithms. This could lead to an underestimation of potential rune patterns available;
    - i have several hypotheses about the theory that poppables are truncated versions of superchests:
    1) it could be plain wrong: poppables and superchests are genarated separately. After all, things you see in poppables are clearly not those you see in superchests: cracked objects, uniques, set items...
    2) maybe it's correct instead, and the quality of items in these "drop chunks" is semi-randomly generated: if it's a poppable, generate them with their default qualities (cracked, magic, unique, etc. probably linked to the player %mf to some degree), while if it's part of a superchest, automatically set their quality to magic/rare.
    3) maybe only few poppables are considered "eligible" by the game to take part in the superchests generation, while some others (like the repeated Ohm pattern I discovered) are not taken into account -- but then you would often see the same few items repated in superchest drops;
    4) it could also be that some poppable patterns are recursive and some totally random, or that there are way more than 65k, let's not forget it.

    Anyway, take a look at this drop: someone would have reported a superchest with such a combo of runes at some point in the story of LK threads, so my personal conclusion is that poppables and superchests are two different things, completely separated from each other in their generation. I'd like to know if more research has been done by previous forum users on the matter.

    Here another Ber pattern by sebhehe. It's /p8 for sure, he stated it while posting the picture. Now I'm really starting to hope some of the screenshots you posted are not /p8 since 5 Bers over 65k patterns is far too hard to believe.

    EDIT: now that I look more carefully, it seems like the two Ohms#1 came both from locked chests. I did some testing in LK and apparently poppables can't drop more than 4 items. Locked chests, on the other hand, can drop more since they gain another potential drop. So it is very likely that Ohm #1 is actually two different patterns that coincidentally (or for a coding quirk related to locked chests) emerged together. But I still believe all poppable drops are organized in patterns, see also the Zod drop in act 5: the fact that both my drop and the youtube guy's drop had in common the exact same items (1 Zod, 2 greater healing potions) is beyond pure chance. Speculations speculations speculations...
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2016
  3. thefranklin

    thefranklin IncGamers Member

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    Maybe try searching some before you post something like this instead of just putting the research effort on us? Here is the easiest source to quote:

    http://diablo2.diablowiki.net/Item_Generation_Tutorial#Object_Drops
     
  4. Brak

    Brak IncGamers Member

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    Thanks for the link and relevant point is here
    so it would seem to be a correct assumption

    sorry for missing this point
     
  5. Brak

    Brak IncGamers Member

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    I think you're right, we're getting too many Bers now.

    Maybe you've run across some odd behavior of Locked Chests?
     
  6. T72on1

    T72on1 IncGamers Member

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    I had an Ohm from one of the corpses there once. I checked my screenshots, but only took it in my inventory unfortunately, so have no clue about the pattern.

    Thanks for that link TheFranklin. Didn't know that, very interesting.

    Edit: o yes, this was on /p8.
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2016
  7. PandadudeSP

    PandadudeSP IncGamers Member

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    Glad to be gathering data for science ;) My ohm was p7 but can't remember what type of poppable it was.
     
  8. thefranklin

    thefranklin IncGamers Member

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    Here is another link I found, but was on a different computer when I posted last night (and sorry if I was a little harsh, it was late...) This was before the rune drop boost, though, but rune drops were boosted somewhat equally in 1.13. jjscud did a lot of research into the LK superchests over the years:

    [QUOTE = jjscud]Just a few numbers to back it up, the average odds for a normal object (chest, log, stash etc) to drop a Ber at p8 is right about 1/1000000. Divide by the odds per special chest and the special chests are about 15 times more likely to drop a Ber.[/QUOTE]

    http://www.diabloii.net/forums/threads/lower-kurast-campfire-runs-or-full-clears.594277/

    And then the LK FAQ is here:
    http://www.diabloii.net/forums/threads/lower-kurast-lk-faq.720492/
    It doesn't mention anything about hitting poppables. Not that it isn't a good idea with the boosted rune odds, but they are not anywhere close to 1 in 65k drop chance. But that doesn't stop anyone from getting great results by hitting poppables (I can't get reddragon's screenshots to show, but his Ber came from a corpse):
    http://www.diabloii.net/forums/threads/1500-lk-runes-results-runes-not-runs.847560/
     
  9. Brak

    Brak IncGamers Member

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    @thefranklin Thanks for more links

    I think we've pretty quickly scratched off the poppables being like superchests in regards to their set drops, but the outlier seems to be the matching Ohm patterns that should have come both from locked chests given the size of the drop. Do you have any ideas on this? I haven't come across anything specific about locked chests being truncated.
     
  10. zticazzy

    zticazzy IncGamers Member

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    Nice info, thefranklin! It would be nice to know where that pre-1.13 1:1000000 estimate comes from.
    I'm developing a new theory about the number of items dropped: it could be that there are 65k static patterns, each one composed of, say, 4 items maximum (but they could be 6, 8, 128, 1024..., however I think that in order to have those recursive patterns we found, this number should be rather small), and every time an object is popped the game selects a pattern among the 65k, then randomly decides how many (0-4) and which items of that pool will spawn. If that's so, pops like Ber #4 and #5 could be part of the same pattern.
    These are ofc assumptions based on nothing, we need more data to come to better conclusions, like screenshots with peculiar items to compare. In the meantime I'm hitting pops in LK for the Zodthon (actually because I hope to find a RjoF) and I'm having several results that I'll keep secret till the end of the competition, let's just say that I didn't find any known pattern for now.

    EDIT: after writing this comment I started a new LK session. Very first pop --> Stone of Jordan :eek::D
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2016
  11. T72on1

    T72on1 IncGamers Member

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    Wow, major congrats !!!
     
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  12. thefranklin

    thefranklin IncGamers Member

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  13. Brak

    Brak IncGamers Member

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    Thanks for the links, but this info is all quite old and seems to predate the knowledge of Superchest patterns.

    One cool tidbit that I didn't realize (if I'm reading correctly) is that corpses, skeletons and logs actually have a higher drop rate than chests.

    They also mention that mechanics for stashes of Act III are unknown
     
  14. Timinator

    Timinator IncGamers Member

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    Urlik was a great source of info who has moved to d3. It's a shame I haven't seen rtb around for a while. Him and others used to be great at the behind the scenes stuff
     
  15. srrw

    srrw IncGamers Member

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    Okay, so I'm not completely sure because it was awhile back and I don't really play anymore (2 hours a month doesn't count you lazy f**k). From the sh*tload of LK runs I've done in 1.13 I've gotten about 3 times more Bers from poppables than from Superchests. I think I've gotten 2 from Superchests and 5-6-7? from poppables.

    So yes, I'm trying to say that there ARE more Bers in poppables than in Superchests. BUT, but... I still think the most efficient way is running only the Superchests in the long run, maybe popping 1-3 other objects in the huts or near waypoint when going back to Act IV. You'll get higher average rune drops not popping other objects, unless they take so little time to pop that it doesn't affect your run times by more than 1-2 seconds.
     
  16. Timinator

    Timinator IncGamers Member

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    Keep in mind those numbers aren't statistically significant. You might have just had some run of luck. Will be good to the more data
     
  17. srrw

    srrw IncGamers Member

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    I doubt it was luck considering I've done 20k+ runs in total. Sadly I can't find my old screenshots, but I'm sure if I dig up the IFT's I'll find some of those.
     
  18. zticazzy

    zticazzy IncGamers Member

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  19. Grape

    Grape IncGamers Member

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    Hey, great that this thread was now made after the topic arose.

    I've also got more Bers from the poppables than from the superchests itself. And I've done runs similar to amount of srrw, maybe much more, really hard to estimate anymore.

    I may have some screenshots of those, but I need to dig them from my old computer. Maybe over the weekend I'll do that, maybe.

    Anyway, here's a P7 Lo drop:
    Screenshot123.jpg
     
  20. Amnethio

    Amnethio IncGamers Member

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    In three days of lazy looting I have found 2 bers, 5 mals, 2 guls, 1 sur from poppables(sp, p7, also like only 1 hi-rune from the superchests). Though it sounds reasonable that the focus should be on the superchests as they drop up to 7 items, it still sounds time-efficient to pop everything on the way or more, especially if there is a fixed location with a lot of popables and stashes that you know of, because you still probably spend more time on walking in the town than just instantly teleporting to the superchests and opening them in a couple of seconds(I'm also slow because I'm wearing cheap mf items, including boots).

    And two gheed's fortunes with ok rolls(141,33,13 and 158,35,11), as a side note(I'm also a noob who plays hell for the first time so it's my first time seeing those). Made my first CoH and now looking for a weapon to make eternity, so I think I'm done with LK.
     

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