Interesting thoughts/theory of mf'ing

Interesting thoughts/theory of mf'ing

So I recall reading in the pindlethon 3 thread that everyone was saying that the chances of a TC 87 dropping was one in about every 2000 runs. Here is what has been bothering me though. Do you at all think it makes a difference how many runs you run at once.

For example, lets just say that one in a hundred was the exact probability of a TC 87 dropping. Now, if I ran 1000 pindle runs in a row, I would therefor obtain one TC 87. On the other hand lets say I only ran 100 runs. The 1 in a 1000 probability still applies but yet more than likely you will not recieve your TC 87. Anyways, after those hundred runs you go eat some lunch then maybe watch your favorite tv show. Afterwards you come back and run 100 more runs with that 1 outta 1000 probability still existing and more than likely you will still recieve no TC 87.

Now as of now this may have seen like random rambling but here is my point for all of this. Right now I'm a college kid with no job which means I do have my oppurtunties to run pindle often, but not consistenly. So does anyone think it would be pointless to run him 5 times a day and only 20 runs each time due to conflicting time schedule. I often find myself with only 20 minutes but I never feel like running him since I feel I only have luck with him when I can at least run 100 runs in a row or more.

Sorry if this was long, but its just been bothering me for the past week or so.
 

huangfusong

Diabloii.Net Member
if it helps, think of it the way I do it:

in your exampke, you have a 1/1000 +/- random(chance) to get the item you're looking for. That number is fixed. If you run 5 minutes a day or 35 minutes a week, you're still whittling off the same amount of hypothetical duds before you become a winner.

i never run for specific items, though i do want a grail -- which means lots of tc87s. just pretend that every elite non-87 unique means one less chance that the next one won't be something you don'y need.
 

Drystan

Diabloii.Net Member
So does anyone think it would be pointless to run him 5 times a day and only 20 runs each time due to conflicting time schedule. I often find myself with only 20 minutes but I never feel like running him since I feel I only have luck with him when I can at least run 100 runs in a row or more.
Mathematically, every run counts. It isn't exactly, 'you should find one every 1000 runs' but more:
Each time you run him, you have a 0.05% (1/2000*100 [not sure if the *100 is required to make it a %] probability you said) chance of him dropping something in TC87. If you run him 2000 times, that adds up to 100%, however, it is sill the 0.05% chance of him dropping it on the 2000th run, or the 1999th run.
Obviously, the more runs you do per session, the closer you'll be to finding one. (Do 100 runs, and suddenly you've had multiple 0.05% opportunities, meaning you've had more chances.
I know the annoyance of having to leave in 30 minutes, and already being ready. There's not enough time to start anything, and there's too much time to just sit around waiting, but mathematically, each run gets you another opportunity. It is pretty unlikely you'll find anything on one of these short sessions though, just due to the fact that you're not getting enough opportunities.

Hope this helps a little.
(My numbers may be wrong, but I did: 1/2000*100=0.05 to get it to a percentage. I haven't done percentages/probability for ages, so I'm not sure what to do with them. The idea's still there though.)
 

kabal

Diabloii.Net Member
Frozen Orb said:
Now, if I ran 1000 pindle runs in a row, I would therefor obtain one TC 87.
That's false. It's not like you're finding 1/1000th of a TC 87 each run, so after 1000 runs you've collected all the pieces and have an item. If you haven't found anything by run #999 you're no closer than you were at the start. Doing X number of runs gives you the same chance regardless of how many you do at a time or how long it takes you do to them.
 

Arreat_mercenary

Diabloii.Net Member
Well, it can be an interesting theory.

But in fact, as someone else said, there are 3 types of lies: the lie, the damn lie and the stadistics.

Having a 1 in 1000 chance to get a tc87 does not mean you actually have to run 1000 times to get your tc87. It means just that is very rare, you can run pinddle 1000 times and probably you won't get a tc87, or at a time run him only 10 times and get a tc87, it all resumes to: LUCK.

From my point of view, it does not matters if you run consistently or not, just do it for fun, as shags says: just play the game, don't do it because you want to find something.

And pinddle rarely drops something good, don't bother with the guys like DC which post very nice finds, they do it for HOURS a day, for the rest of us, good items drops from pinddle seldom happen :wink3:
 

Brak

Diabloii.Net Member
Yeah if the odds are 1 in 1000, just cause you do 1000 runs doesnt mean you'll get an 87. Formula is:
1(total odds)-.999(odds of not getting)^1000(number of attempts).
So if you set aside time for 5 runs, the exponent becomes 5, and you'll have an idea of what your odds are before you start. But remember each event is completely independent of the last. If I had a dollar for everytime I saw people betting on Red just because 5 Blacks had come out in a row I'd have...well only 6 dollars but I don't spend much time at the roulette table.
 

Drystan

Diabloii.Net Member
Brak said:
But remember each event is completely independent of the last
QFT. It is still the same percentage drop, and the previous drops don't have an impact, thus the number of previous runs don't really matter. But the more runs you do, the more opportunities you give yourself.
 

Moar

Diabloii.Net Site Pal
Average is the key word here. You can go several thousands of runs and not get any tc87 and then suddenly get several within the next thousand.
I got 4 tc87 in the Pindlethon (2k runs) and that is much above average. When I then count in the 1.8k runs I did before the Pindlethon without any tc87 at all, it averages out again.

I don't do the math and statistics beyond it, I rely on others there and so far their average prediction 1/1000 has been correct.

What I do is to run Pindle when I feel for it, no matter for how many runs in a row. :smiley:
 

Hp_Sauce

Diabloii.Net Member
The game does not keep track of how many times you've done something. I.E. killed Pindle.

Therefore 1 Pindle run a year for 1000 years = 1000 Pindle runs in a day without turning the game off.

As Edward Norton said in Fight Club, "on a long enough time line everyones survival rate drops to zero." Thats because the longer they are alive for the more deadly things they've encountered and one of them is bound to get them eventually. However, it could be the very first deadly thing you encounter that gets you, or it could be the deadly thing that happens on day 56 of your 104th year of being alive.

In the end It's just random luck. Odds are just a guideline, a referance point, they just say by the time you've lived x number of days then y number of deadly things should have happened to you and mathimaticly speaking something should have killed you.

But there is no math in real life so again I point to luck. Just as in Diablo 2 items dropping there technically is no math involved, the "yes drop" or "no don't drop" numbers are randomly generated. There is no point at which the game says "oh crap he's done 1000 runs so I gotta drop him a TC87 item.

Tried to do it without too much math... and apparently I got philosophy instead.

-hps

Edit: Bah! Drystan said it better, shorter and simpler 2 posts up. I got pwned.
 

cade88

Diabloii.Net Member
DarkChaos said:
Math dictates nature and real life. Luck is probabilities; and that is math.
man made up math, math did not make up man

therefore math doesn't dicatate man, man dictates himself through math

math is the way man makes the world seem less scary
 

DarkChaos

Diabloii.Net Member
I made it sound too extreme; I was actually just trying to say that luck is just probabilities, and eventually Pindle will drop the loot.
 

cade88

Diabloii.Net Member
DarkChaos said:
I made it sound too extreme; I was actually just trying to say that luck is just probabilities, and eventually Pindle will drop the loot.
well this comment get me laughing yea it got a little complicated and extreme way to make it funny dc
 

ZeN

Diabloii.Net Member
DarkChaos said:
I made it sound too extreme; I was actually just trying to say that luck is just probabilities, and eventually Pindle will drop the loot.
That is the thing - the whole probability formulae doesn't assure you that he will:

1 - ( .999 ) ^ N where N is the Number of the independent tries ( events ).

There is no natural N that for it:

1 - ( .999 ) ^ N = 1

The only N that satisfies this equasion is INFINITY which is of course:

1. Is not a natural number
2. Is unreachable in human terms

So there is a possible events chain that never leads to Pindle dropping "the loot". The probability of this chain is very small, but what people forget is : IT EXISTS!

So its not math, it is still very much luck/non-luck.
 

Drystan

Diabloii.Net Member
Zen said:
So its not math, it is still very much luck/non-luck.
Please don't say that. Almost anything that occurs in this world implies some form of maths.

Some people believe the chaos theory, in which every thing is random, may follow a pattern (form of maths.) Kinda a contradiction, ey?
Possible though, in a world of so little knowledge about how the world works.
Yes, item finding is luck, but luck based on maths.

The fact that Blizzard in their code made "x" item have a drop probability of "y" means that it includes maths. Probability is maths.
Probability also includes luck and randomness.

Zen said:
DarkChaos said:
[...]and eventually Pindle will drop the loot.
That is the thing - the whole probability formulae doesn't assure you that he will:
What DarkChaos said was, given infinite runs, he will drop everything he can. That's assured, because eventually, even though the drops don't always have to drop, he's given infinite time to drop it.
You're right in what you said, infinite is the only 'number' that assures you get an item, but DarkChaos said "eventually," which in a way includes infinity.

Anyway, I think this is way Off-Topic. Could we please leave it be. If I've made a mistake here, could you PM me? Cheers!
 

jiansonz

Diabloii.Net Member
I don´t do runs, but I have a question on Pindle runs nonetheless:

How often do TC 87 items of any quality drop from him or his minions?

Because when I go through the game (full clear, no repeats) I jump for joy at every Cracked Corona, magical Ogre Gauntlets, rare Sacred Armor, etc, etc. that drop. I think they are cool finds just because they are so damn rare. I have yet to see all base item types, despite 5 Guardians and half a dozen characters more that reached act 3 Hell.

At least it´s less ridiculous than in 1.09 (where I have never seen any TC90 items other than for sale in shops)
 

Tigereye

Diabloii.Net Member
jiansonz said:
How often do TC 87 items of any quality drop from him or his minions?
According to ATMA drop calculator Pindleskin drops TC87 weapons 1:49 and TC 87 armor 1:93. So the chance of a drop to be TC87 is 1/49+1/93 = 3.12%
Having two drops you will see:
No TC 87 drop: (100%-3.12%)*(100%-3.12%) = 93.865%
One TC 87 drop: (100%-3.12%)*3.12%*2 = 6.038%
Two TC87 drop: 3.12%*3.12% = 0.097%

Hope this helps a bit.
 

Hrus

Diabloii.Net Member
Tigereye, these are odds per kill (there are already 2 items factored).
Per run you will see
armoTC87 1:93
weapTC87 1:49
armo or weap 3.12%
 
Top