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Insane probablities for this meph drop? (Or am I just over-reacting?)

Discussion in 'Theorycrafting and Statistics' started by newb-newb-newb2, Feb 7, 2004.

  1. newb-newb-newb2

    newb-newb-newb2 IncGamers Member

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    Insane probablities for this meph drop? (Or am I just over-reacting?)

    I did a couple of Mephisto-runs, and from the last TWO consecutive runs, I got Immortal King's Stone Crusher (38% CB). One in each run. according to www.d2data.net, the chances for a single item of weapon69 is
    Mephisto [TC] Hell 1.07649679
    Should this happen? I feel lucky, in a weird way, since I don't really need another two of that maul. I now have one 35%, and three 38%, that's the four I've ever found. And the other two were also just a few minutes apart :)

    Edit: OMG the FIRST run I did after typing this got me Ornate Plate and Ornate Plate!!!!! :D
    I found my first Griswold's Armor just two days ago, and I've never had a Corpsemourn :D
    d2data says the drop probabilities for Ornate Plate is
    Mephisto [TC] Hell 0.67638271
    And I got two in one run! I have a screenshot (which could easily be faked for no gain) but I have nowhere to post it. I can mail it if you really like. Weeeeeee I'm glad! :D

    Last thing: Why do I get White or Grey Quilted Armor at least 7/10 times from the Armor Stand at Mephisto in Hell?
     
  2. Knalb

    Knalb IncGamers Member

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    I seem to find a lot of certain (sort of good) uniques. 5 Jalel's Manes, 5 IK Mauls, etc.

    Are you playing single player? if so, then the seed of the game stays the same, and i *think* that if you go through the levels in the same way, the racks will always drop the same item type. A lot of single-player only players do "rack-running" to try and find uniques/sets of a certain type when they find a rack that drops the correct item type.

    -Knalb
     
  3. Thrugg

    Thrugg IncGamers Member

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    This may seem like a bubble burst, but I'm afraid I have to debunk you of any thought you might have of the IK Maul being at all hard to find.

    The top 12 most common set or unique items that Hell Mephisto can possibly drop are

    Isenhart's Case
    Berserker's Hatchet
    Cathan's Mesh
    Isenhart's Horns
    Isenhart's Lightbrand
    Milabrega's Orb
    Tancred's Crowbill
    Cleglaw's Tooth
    Immortal King's Stone Crusher
    Sigon's Wrap
    Sigon's Sabot
    Sigon's Gage


    (and at #13 is the first unique, not surprisingly Venom Ward)

    Once you start MFing heavily, IK Mauls start to really tick you off.
     
  4. newb-newb-newb2

    newb-newb-newb2 IncGamers Member

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    That's okay, but still, I thought two in a row with same variable was nice. I know of course that for example Goldstrike Arch has much more variables, i just liked it. And the double Ornate Plate was sweet.
    BTW, yes I play Single Player. Is it possible to create a game (changing difficulty levels) untill a certain rack drops a specific base item often, and then just doing rack-runs? sounds boring, at least untill I get the right base item.
     
  5. Thrugg

    Thrugg IncGamers Member

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    Essentially, yes. Back in 1.07 this was raised to an art form out of necessity - because the monsters couldn't drop the high TC stuff, only the racks could.
    In 1.09 it became less popular because they fixed the monster drops so everything could be dropped by some monster, and they nerfed racks so they only went up to TC75.
    It appears now in 1.10 that they think they have the balance right again, and racks can drop (practically) anything rack-legal.
    Rack-running is still fairly boring. Not all racks are stable - some drop a few different items in a pattern, some drop different things depending on which way you go to them. And you expect about 1000 rack-hits per unique (125 per set), I believe (or so it was in 1.07 at least).

    The difference between 1000 rack runs and 1000 eg Meph runs is that you might not get what you want from Meph, but you'll probably find something else nice instead. From 1000 rack runs you'll just find a bunch of garbage on the failed runs. So it is really only worth doing if you desperately want one particular item.
     
  6. spellegren

    spellegren IncGamers Member

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    Eh. Things go in streaks sometimes.

    Last night I found 3 Harlequin Crests, in 3 straight games, first off Meph, second off Andy, third off Meph. /Shrug

    Then for days I find nothing. Sigh. Back to MF'ing.
     
  7. UselessOne

    UselessOne IncGamers Member

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    Funny how Ogre Mauls and Ornate Plates are in a higher treasure class than Shakos and Spiderweb Sashes.

    I've been giving IK Mauls and Griswold's Hearts for free or some low level runes or set items these days.
     
  8. Mr Evil

    Mr Evil IncGamers Member

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    Actually, I think you'll find the list should look like this:
    Isenhart's Case
    Isenhart's Case
    Isenhart's Case
    Isenhart's Case
    Isenhart's Case
    Isenhart's Case
    Isenhart's Case
    Isenhart's Case
    Isenhart's Case
    Isenhart's Case
    Isenhart's Case
    Isenhart's Case
     
  9. redalert

    redalert IncGamers Member

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    Oh Mr Evil don't forget to add:

    Isenhart's Case

    oops u already did

    i should be rewarded for finding so many.
     
  10. muteownz

    muteownz IncGamers Member

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    one time meph dropped 2 isenhart cases... which i thought was impossible... 1 monster droping the same item 2 times from one kill.. hmmm

    but uhhh as far as griswolds armor goes i find that a lot. so much in fact i sell them to the vedors. :)
     
  11. spiderman2k9

    spiderman2k9 Banned

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    keys anyone? :)
     
  12. spykat

    spykat IncGamers Member

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    on a pindle run i found a rare, set, and unique kraken shell on the same run :eek:
     
  13. justy303

    justy303 IncGamers Member

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    Pindleskin dropped me Nat's claw and Bul Kathos small sword in the same drop. They are both TC 87.
     

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