CombatShrine
Banned
Idea: Logging all BNet Diablo 3 trades to regress fair market values
I just had an idea I think that would be really great to have in Diablo 3.
In theory, assuming an accepted currency (lets assume gold) was introduced into the game, it would be rather simple for the item info box to have a "Fair Market Value: <gold>", with that number calculated from logging all trades made on Battle.net, and compiling the data to regress an average.
For example, lets say someone finds a skill rune. Someone wants it, and pays 100 gold for it. Nine other people do the same trade - but due to variations in supply and demand from buyer to buyer and seller to seller, not everyone buys for 100 gold. Some will do it for 90. Others for 120. Maybe someone will pay as much as 1000 gold in desperation. All of these trades would be reported, and an average calculated. (Even better would be to give a 95% confidence interval).
There is a problem with the common situation where multiple items are traded at the same time for other items and/or gold. It would still be possible to regress cost data from item-to-item trades by basing them on other trades that were strictly gold-for-items; it wouldn't be spot on accurate, but it would at least be a rough estimate.
The greatest difficulty would be in calculating a cost for rare (that is, randomly-generated) items, but this too would be possible by correlating the trade information with the item modifiers.
To borrow a Diablo 2 example, lets say someone finds a rare amulet. It has +1 barbarian skills and 5 other weak modifiers. The game would, from its large pool of correlated data, see "+1 barb? ok, 10 gold... all other modifiers are weak ...no real effect on price...same for the 5 others...about 10 gold." Now lets say someone finds a 35 MF ammy, with 5 crappy mods. "35 mf? about 10 gold...other modifiers don't change worth...okay 10 gold."
Now what if the amulet had BOTH? "+1 barb... 10 gold... 35 MF...similar amulets have gone for 100 gold" and it would display the price as that. It would need some slick mathematics (principal components; Bayesian; whatever) and a large pool of data, but it could be done.
I doubt Blizzard would put in the effort to do such a thing, but it would be insane-omfg awesome, and would make trading a breeze; new people wouldn't have to put up with getting ripped off. People could have up-to-date cost information based upon the entire populating of players on Battle.net. The estimates would be pseudo-accurate, but they would the best possible.
Logically, the beta-test realm would provide a starting data pool for prices.
I just had an idea I think that would be really great to have in Diablo 3.
In theory, assuming an accepted currency (lets assume gold) was introduced into the game, it would be rather simple for the item info box to have a "Fair Market Value: <gold>", with that number calculated from logging all trades made on Battle.net, and compiling the data to regress an average.
For example, lets say someone finds a skill rune. Someone wants it, and pays 100 gold for it. Nine other people do the same trade - but due to variations in supply and demand from buyer to buyer and seller to seller, not everyone buys for 100 gold. Some will do it for 90. Others for 120. Maybe someone will pay as much as 1000 gold in desperation. All of these trades would be reported, and an average calculated. (Even better would be to give a 95% confidence interval).
There is a problem with the common situation where multiple items are traded at the same time for other items and/or gold. It would still be possible to regress cost data from item-to-item trades by basing them on other trades that were strictly gold-for-items; it wouldn't be spot on accurate, but it would at least be a rough estimate.
The greatest difficulty would be in calculating a cost for rare (that is, randomly-generated) items, but this too would be possible by correlating the trade information with the item modifiers.
To borrow a Diablo 2 example, lets say someone finds a rare amulet. It has +1 barbarian skills and 5 other weak modifiers. The game would, from its large pool of correlated data, see "+1 barb? ok, 10 gold... all other modifiers are weak ...no real effect on price...same for the 5 others...about 10 gold." Now lets say someone finds a 35 MF ammy, with 5 crappy mods. "35 mf? about 10 gold...other modifiers don't change worth...okay 10 gold."
Now what if the amulet had BOTH? "+1 barb... 10 gold... 35 MF...similar amulets have gone for 100 gold" and it would display the price as that. It would need some slick mathematics (principal components; Bayesian; whatever) and a large pool of data, but it could be done.
I doubt Blizzard would put in the effort to do such a thing, but it would be insane-omfg awesome, and would make trading a breeze; new people wouldn't have to put up with getting ripped off. People could have up-to-date cost information based upon the entire populating of players on Battle.net. The estimates would be pseudo-accurate, but they would the best possible.
Logically, the beta-test realm would provide a starting data pool for prices.