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How many rings must fall for a SoJ?

Discussion in 'Theorycrafting and Statistics' started by JoJeck, Mar 13, 2004.

  1. JoJeck

    JoJeck IncGamers Member

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    How many rings must fall for a SoJ?

    Is there a simple relationship between the average number of magical rings that fall and getting a SoJ? I appreciate this is an alternative way of looking at the chance of a SoJ dropping which for the most part is very rare.

    I guess that the effect of % magic find works a little differently for rings and amulets than it does for other items like armour since rings can only be magical, rare, set and unique while armour can be normal, socketed, cracked and so on as well and mf affects that process. I know how the generation of a ring works by being selected as the type of treasure to be dropped but how is it decided whether it is a unique in the 1.10 patch and is that the same as in 1.09?

    Also once the server has decided that a unique ring will drop how does the server then decides whether it will be a SoJ or Ravenfrost and so on. Assuming the area is high enough to drop all unique rings what is the relative frequency of the SoJ among unique rings? In 1.09 for instance the Ravenfrost was 15 times more likely to drop than a SoJ IIRC.

    According to a monster drop calculator ordinary monsters in a level 83 area can drop the highest level ring Wisp Projector. So assuming areas of level 83 or above were searched how many rings of all types would have to be found on average to get a unique ring, when using say 0 % mf, and 200% mf and 500% mf.

    Assuming a ring has been dropped do any monsters (including bosses) have a higher chance of dropping a unique ring or are all ring drops treated the same and only the amount of % mf carried by the player / merc affect whether is is unique? In other words are all monsters the same even though some have a higher chance to drop a ring versus other treasure types.

    I read somewhere that chests, jugs, dead bodies and shiny chests and so on are treated as being one level lower than the area they are in. So chests in a level 84 area can drop all unique rings. Is that true?

    That is a lot of questions I know but I would dearly like to get an appreciation of the scale of the task and expressing the chance of a ring as being 0.000124% or whatever per kill of monster XYZ is just not as meaningful to me as knowing that 20 rings have dropped in the last hour and I need say 700 to get a unique and that on average one ring in 75 will be a SoJ and one will be a Bul Kathos etc. Also the number of rings dropped depends on the number of players in the game and it is easier to scale the likelihood in terms of rings dropped per hour.

    Thanks for reading, let's hope someone can answer (or provide a link to) at least some of these questions. :)
     
  2. Tapewar

    Tapewar IncGamers Member

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    Chance of monster dropping a "ring" is always the same for that specific monster.

    Chance of it being unique based on ur MF, and mob uniqueness (actboss, superunique, unique, champion, regular).

    Chance of it being soj is 1:30 off monsters that can only drop up to soj (like NM andy), and even lower once more rings become available (ie: hell meph)

    NM andy is ur best chance to find an soj, and MF is extremly important to increase chances of ring being unique.
     
  3. JoJeck

    JoJeck IncGamers Member

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    Thanks for your reply.

    Yes, I suspected that would be the case.

    This is very interesting. Could someone indicate how much better an actboss is at dropping a unique ring than a regular monster or a unique for a given amount of mf and assuming a ring has been selected to drop. Is it a factor of 3 or 10 or 100 as that could make a big difference to my way of thinking about getting good unique rings etc.

    Thanks, :) I am aware the the current methods to get just a SoJ. And I think my title for this thread was a bit misleading, sorry. I really want some of the other difficult to get unique rings as well as the SoJ like Bul Kathos, Wisp Projector as well as a chance to get some top Set Items like the IK Armor. Running bosses is boring for me compared to area clearances especially in dark underground areas that are dangerous to my characters.

    So really I want to know the chances of getting an SoJ (or other equivalent unique ring) in clearing high level areas like Black Marsh, Tamoe Highland and Pit levels 1 and 2. I know these areas have diffent level monsters and the odds of the highest ring like Wisp Projector would vary during such a clearance. But I can adjust my thinking to compensate once I understand the underlying statistics.

    What sparked my interest in this was something that happened the other day. I guess something like 40 rings dropped while I did several of the above runs to the Pit using my Stafing Amazon. Of those rings 4 were rare and one was a Bul Kathos.

    So how many rings do I have to get to find a unique one and given that what are the odds that it is a SoJ / Bul Kathos / Wisp Projector rather than the Nagel Rings and Dwarf Stars I keep getting.
     
  4. Shadow_247

    Shadow_247 IncGamers Member

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    I highly suggest giving this thread a read. It will end up answering most of your questions. I think it was determined that something like 141 rings had to drop off NM andy so you could find one soj.

    The odds that you will find one soj in the pit, or any other level 85 area -

    in an 8 player game with 400MF

    1:1217421 for regular monsters
    1:289289 for champions
    1:134055 for random uniques

    in a 1 player game with the same MF only the regular monster drop is decreased as champs and random uniques have 100% chance to drop.
     
  5. Jarulf

    Jarulf IncGamers Member

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    No, it works exactly the same way for ALL items. What happens with rings for example is that when it comes to checking for magic quality (after having checked normally for unique, set and rare) it just set the chance for magic automatically since it can be of lower quality.
     
  6. JoJeck

    JoJeck IncGamers Member

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    Thanks, I was aware of Igorpotapov's thread and have just re-read it. As you know he is concerned with running Andariel in Nm and that is specificaly what I do not want to be doing. There are a few useful hints but none of my questions are answered definitively :(

    Now this is much more useful information :) and although it is for killing monsters, rather than orientated towards rings, and is therefore too limited for my purposes, it has inspired me to plough into the drop calculator on the German website. Having spent some time there, it seems that most of the detail I require can be extracted from numbers like you have given here. I hope to present some results here in a day or two. So thanks for giving me that idea.

    One thing that is easy to extract is the relative frequency of unique rings often called their Rarity

    <TABLE style="WIDTH: 238pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=317 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 61pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2962" width=81><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=2 width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 81pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3949" width=108><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; WIDTH: 157pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" width=209 colSpan=3 height=17>Bul-Kathos' Wedding Band</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; WIDTH: 81pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=108 x:num>1</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Carrion Wind</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>3</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Dwarf Star</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>10</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Manald Heal</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>15</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Nagelring</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>15</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Nature's Peace</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>3</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Raven Frost</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>10</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>The Stone of Jordan</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Wisp Projector</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
    So in a level 85 area there is 1 / 59 chance of getting a SoJ if a unique ring drops. And importantly also a 1/59 chance of a Wisp Projector and a BK. I also need a Carrion Ring or 2 and who doesn't need more Ravenfrosts? So I figure that searching in these areas has a higher percentage of useful drops than farming NM Andriel endlessly.
     
  7. Thrugg

    Thrugg IncGamers Member

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    I can add a few facts which you can interpret as you need.

    Once the game decides to drop a ring, the chance it will be unique depends on the mlvl of the killed monster, your MF, and any unique bonus the monster has. This is worked out in the following way.

    Start with 400 (the "base" chance for a monster to drop a unique is 1/400 in 1.10)
    Subtract (mlvl - qlvl). For rings, qlvl = 1, so here you pretty much subtrct mlvl from 401.
    You now apply your MF. For uniques, this means you divide by (1 + (MF * 2.5)/(MF + 250)). There are rounding issues to worry about here, but this is close enough.
    You now apply the monster's unique bonus. This is a number between 0 and 1024, usually called "cu". For regular monsters cu=0. For random bosses and champions and superuniques, cu=800. For act bosses, cu=983, or 993 during their quest drop (Andariel is 995). Some other special monsters have their own values (eg Cow King is 900). This number is applied by multiplying your chance so far by (1024-cu)/1024.
    What you are left with is the inverse of the chance of unique.

    Example. Hell Mephisto (mlvl 87, cu 983), 500 MF.
    400 - (87 - 1) = 314.
    314 / (1 + (500 * 2.5)/(500 + 250)) = 118
    118 * (1024 - 983)/1024 = 4.72
    So 1/4.72 rings that Hell Meph drops will be unique.

    Basically the cu makes the biggest difference here (for act bosses it improves the chance by about a factor of 25). Higher mlvl makes a small difference too.

    For regular area 85 monsters, you are looking at around 1/316 with no MF up to about 1/100 with enormous MF. For random bosses, rings drop unique about 4.5 times as often (so 1/70 up to 1/23).

    The next step is to apply rarity, which you seem to have worked out.

    Hope this is of some interest/help
     
  8. JoJeck

    JoJeck IncGamers Member

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    Thank you very much Thrugg :thumbsup: That is precisely the information I was looking for and I should now be able to model this much more effectively knowing that part of the process.
     
  9. igorpotapov

    igorpotapov Banned

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    JoJeck. Yes, NM Andy runs can be very boring, but chances of a soj are several times bigger then pit ones. Find a soj from Andy then find other equipment in pit. For example I found 2xSOJ from Andy and then full Tal’s set from Pindle. Imagine how many pit runs do you need for 2xSOJ and Tal’s amulet?

    Shadow_247. Thanks for reference to my guide.
    Not 141 ANY rings, but 141 UNIQUE rings gives 99% chance to generate a soj.
    And how can I calculate your numbers for pit monster chances?

    Jarulf. If you are Pedro Faria, then thank you very much for your D1 guide. And where I can discuss with you your tables in magprob.zip and mondrop.zip files?

    Thrugg. Can you post information on normal ring generation process? I mean chances for monster to drop any ring. See it here: http://www.d2data.net/tc/rin.html

    P.S.: Jarulf, Thrugg, Shadow_247, can anyone of you be my editor for the second edition of my SOJ MF guide? Or even may be co-auther?
     
  10. Thrugg

    Thrugg IncGamers Member

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    All rings that fall come through a set of TCs called the "Good" TCs. These are distinct from the "Equip" TCs that contain all the weapons and armour. The "Good" TCs also contain amulets, jewels, charms, gems and runes.
    To make things easier, from the start of NM onwards all the Good TCs are practically the same. So to compare monsters' chances of dropping rings, you need only compare their chance of dropping from a Good TC (the same can be said about runes, BTW).

    I'll give a listing of various types of monster and what fraction of their drops are from a Good TC. This is not dependent on number of players, which only affects whether they drop nothing. The fraction of actual drops that will be Good remains the same.

    Wraiths 1/7
    Summoner/Council 1/12
    Andariel 1/14
    Hephasto/Nihlathak/Blood Raven/Izual 1/14
    Uniques/SUs 1/15 *
    Duriel/Radament 1/16
    Countess 1/16 #
    Cow 1/20
    Chests 1/21
    Mephisto/Diablo/Baal 1/22
    Most regular monsters 1/30
    Champions 1/33 *

    * this doesn't include their potion drops
    # this doesn't include her rune drop

    If they ever fix Andariel's quest drop bug she will drop back to 1/16 like Duriel and Radament.

    As you can see, wraiths drop some serious rings. However, they also drop some serious nothing most of the time. If you plan to hunt wraiths (that is all three types, ghosts, gloams and finger mages) for rings it is best to do it with more players in the game, because their drops improve a great deal from that.
     
  11. igorpotapov

    igorpotapov Banned

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    Thanks.
    Well, but I still need to know chances to drop ring if monster like to drop from “good†TC. Are they equal for rings, amulets, jewels, charms, gems and runes?
    And how about lvl85 areas? Chances remain the same or not? I mean random monsters, of cause.
    For example, if I find random unique boss in Tamoe Highland, then chance of the Good TC is 1/15? And if I find the same boss in The Pit, then chance is again 1/15?
    How about guest Wraiths in act 5? Chances still are 1/7?
    And about Andariel bug. I hear, I can fix it, if I will do Save&Exit immediately after Andariel kill during completing her quest, wouldn’t I? There is good discussion of it here on Bug’s Discussion Forum.
     
  12. Thrugg

    Thrugg IncGamers Member

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    Sorry, yes, I try to be brief, I leave things out...
    The ratios are a little different in Normal, but from NM onwards, 6/13 Good drops will be "Jewelry", and 2/5 Jewelry drops will be rings (1/5 amulets, the rest split equally between jewels and the 3 charm types)

    Well, the monsters in level 85 areas are just regular monsters, the only thing interesting about them is their mlvl. I would not look in a lvl85 area if I was specifically after a SoJ. I could look in an area with easier monsters and kill them faster. The better chance of a SoJ dropping if it is a unique ring will make up for the fact that lower level monsters have a slightly lower chance of dropping a unique.

    Yep. Same if he is in the WSK in Hell or the Flayer Jungle in NM. The mlvl changes, drop ratios don't.

    Yep. Guest monsters still drop from the same group of TCs, just (usually) a higher level one. The ratios don't typically change after NM level, just the highest level drop of each type you can get.

    You can avoid it (not really fix it) by never talking to the Act 1 NPCs after you kill her. But that means you can't ever get to Act 2. I'm not sure why you would want to avoid it though, it is a (rare) "good" bug, the bug makes her drops better.
     
  13. Trapp

    Trapp IncGamers Member

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    I installed Diablo 2 a week ago. I've found 3 SOJ's already in that time frame. I have 450ish MF. I think its all luck but one can definitiely use any edge. Good luck finding what ya need. I've been pretty lucky so far.. and now that I'm learning whats worth keeping I hope I don't throw away another one of the best belts in the game.
     
  14. igorpotapov

    igorpotapov Banned

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    Thrugg, thanks.
    All your information seems to be accurate, but Wraiths chances are too big. They drop rings with probability (1/7)*(6/13)*(2/5)=2.64% per item, and Quest Andariel drops rings with probability (1/14)*(6/13)*(2/5)=1.32%? Is it correct? www.d2data.net says 1.35% for Quest NM Andy and 0.43% for NM Wraith. May be you missed something or I misunderstand you?
    And how about Unique Wraith? Chances of Good are 1/7 or 1/15 as usual unique monster ones?

    You are still too lazy to read Andariel Bug thread at bugs forum (or too busy with something).
    This is Zenkat quote:
    And I don’t think bugs ever can be “good” thing. A game is a game if it is limited by rules. If there are not rules, then there is not a game. ANY bugs make a game more badly. Chess is good example, do it has any bugs? Just imagine computer chess. Are there bugs, which makes chess better?
    Here is example of “good” bug in 1.10. Marrowwalk bug is “good” as it is, but it make game very misbalanced. And many good necromancer players hate it as the worse bug of 1.10.
     
  15. Jarulf

    Jarulf IncGamers Member

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    You can always message me. Do note that I never ended up finnishing the program or work I did with those files. They are slightly incomplete and might have some errors too.
     
  16. Ruvanal

    Ruvanal IncGamers Member

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    I would not say that Thrugg is lazy, he is just using better information than what Zenkat provided. I have tested the way the quest special drops behave as have others at the Phrozen Keep. In fact one the first specific tests that I did involved using a character that was killing Andariel for the first time and imediatily exiting. At the that point and for over 5 runs of never talking to the act 1 NPCs the drops were from the non-quest TC listing. But once that chararacter did talk to the NPCs (part of the over all test) the drops were there after using the quest TC drop for her, even on repeated runs and even after later going to act2 and returning.

    The bug is caused by the code only looking at the current quest status flags of the character doing the killing blow AND the way the quest flags were set up for the last quest of act1 (they are set up sort of screwy compared to the other act end quests). The quest flag (one of several used in the quest) that is used for noting when Anderial is killed is set to a state that shows she is killed when first kill her for credit (blocking the Quest drop at that point) and it also is used as the trigger to show the "!" over the NPC heads that they have something to say to you (various congragualtion messages). To avoid having the NPC always trying to talk to you in future games, when you talk to one of the NPCs the flag is reset back to its previous condition of not having killed Andarial (and there are a couple of other flags also set to indicate the that the quest is completed and to no longer do updates to that set of quest flags). At this point the only test that is being done for the quest flag is for the specific sub condition of if Andariel was killed (flag indicates she has not been) and it is unchanging. You will not be able to avoid doing the quest flag reset if you intend to play any farther into the game.
     
  17. duneforever

    duneforever IncGamers Member

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    heh ^_^ I was rushing a friend through normal - nightmare, and when I killed baal for him baal dropped one unique ring, and alas it was SoJ. My Second hc ladder soj found this season
     

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