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How CAN I FIND SILKS OF THE VICTOR???

Discussion in 'Classic' started by Lair, May 2, 2008.

  1. Lair

    Lair IncGamers Member

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    How CAN I FIND SILKS OF THE VICTOR???

    I am playing diablo 2 classic v1.09
    I have about 150%mf gear on my zon.
    I have been doing NM meph runs about 50+ times now and he still hasn't drop Silks of the Victor?
    Should I just keep at it? I read on another forum that its 1 in 600 that it'll drop in NM meph. Does that mean if I kill him 600 times he'll finally drop silks of the victor?
    Let know how you guys found it. Thanks
     
  2. Barl

    Barl IncGamers Member

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    Re: How CAN I FIND SILKS OF THE VICTOR???

    I'm not as good at game mechanics as other people on here (though I can say that 1/600 is probably wrong), but I can offer you some advice on probability:

    1/600 does not mean that he will drop it after 600 runs. The odds are the same every time you kill him (assuming he CAN, of which I'm not sure), it's just that at 600, the bell curve is the largest. At least I think it's a bell curve.
     
  3. HegemonKhan

    HegemonKhan IncGamers Member

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    Re: How CAN I FIND SILKS OF THE VICTOR???

    using atma program and using your 150% mf here is the results for silks of victor for most current patch 1.11 (if u are using previos patch tell me and i'll change it to that and re-give atma's results for u, scratch this, it took too much work to do this, not gonna re-do for different patch):

    8 players in game, 150% mf, searching for silks of victor:

    probabilty, name, area

    1 : 154 Diablo - (N) The Chaos Sanctuary - {mlvl 110}
    1 : 594 Mephisto ~ 1st kill - (N) Durance of Hate Level 3 - {mlvl 59}
    1 : 620 Diablo ~ 1st kill - (N) The Chaos Sanctuary - {mlvl 62}
    1 : 642 Baal ~ 1st kill - (N) The WorldStone Chamber - {mlvl 75}
    1 : 688 Duriel ~ 1st kill - (N) Tal Rasha's Chamber - {mlvl 55}
    1 : 714 Mephisto ~ 1st kill - [H] Durance of Hate Level 3 - {mlvl 87}
    1 : 721 Andariel ~ 1st kill - [H] Catacombs Level 4 - {mlvl 75}
    1 : 734 Diablo ~ 1st kill - [H] The Chaos Sanctuary - {mlvl 94}
    1 : 740 Baal ~ 1st kill - [H] The WorldStone Chamber - {mlvl 99}
    1 : 778 Duriel ~ 1st kill - [H] Tal Rasha's Chamber - {mlvl **}
    1 : 860 Andariel ~ 1st kill - (N) Catacombs Level 4 - {mlvl 49}
    1 : 929 Mephisto - (N) Durance of Hate Level 3 - {mlvl 59}
    1 : 969 Diablo - (N) The Chaos Sanctuary - {mlvl 62}
    1 : 1005 Baal - (N) The WorldStone Chamber - {mlvl 75}
    1 : 1117 Mephisto - [H] Durance of Hate Level 3 - {mlvl 87}
    1 : 1147 Diablo - [H] The Chaos Sanctuary - {mlvl 94}
    1 : 1157 Baal - [H] The WorldStone Chamber - {mlvl 99}
    1 : 1900 Duriel - (N) Tal Rasha's Chamber - {mlvl 55}
    1 : 2127 Andariel - [H] Catacombs Level 4 - {mlvl 75}
    1 : 2148 Duriel - [H] Tal Rasha's Chamber - {mlvl **}
    1 : 2538 Andariel - (N) Catacombs Level 4 - {mlvl 49}
    1 : 3427 The Cow King - [H] The Secret Cow Level - {mlvl 84}
    1 : 4979 The Cow King - (N) The Secret Cow Level - {mlvl 67}

    1 player in game, 150% mf, searching for silks of victor:

    1 : 190 Diablo - (N) The Chaos Sanctuary - {mlvl 110}
    1 : 756 Mephisto ~ 1st kill - (N) Durance of Hate Level 3 - {mlvl 59}
    1 : 789 Diablo ~ 1st kill - (N) The Chaos Sanctuary - {mlvl 62}
    1 : 818 Baal ~ 1st kill - (N) The WorldStone Chamber - {mlvl 75}
    1 : 909 Mephisto ~ 1st kill - [H] Durance of Hate Level 3 - {mlvl 87}
    1 : 934 Diablo ~ 1st kill - [H] The Chaos Sanctuary - {mlvl 94}
    1 : 942 Baal ~ 1st kill - [H] The WorldStone Chamber - {mlvl 99}
    1 : 1143 Mephisto - (N) Durance of Hate Level 3 - {mlvl 59}
    1 : 1193 Diablo - (N) The Chaos Sanctuary - {mlvl 62}
    1 : 1226 Duriel ~ 1st kill - (N) Tal Rasha's Chamber - {mlvl 55}
    1 : 1237 Baal - (N) The WorldStone Chamber - {mlvl 75}
    1 : 1285 Andariel ~ 1st kill - [H] Catacombs Level 4 - {mlvl 75}
    1 : 1375 Mephisto - [H] Durance of Hate Level 3 - {mlvl 87}
    1 : 1388 Duriel ~ 1st kill - [H] Tal Rasha's Chamber - {mlvl **}
    1 : 1411 Diablo - [H] The Chaos Sanctuary - {mlvl 94}
    1 : 1424 Baal - [H] The WorldStone Chamber - {mlvl 99}
    1 : 1533 Andariel ~ 1st kill - (N) Catacombs Level 4 - {mlvl 49}
    1 : 2652 Duriel - (N) Tal Rasha's Chamber - {mlvl 55}
    1 : 2970 Andariel - [H] Catacombs Level 4 - {mlvl 75}
    1 : 2999 Duriel - [H] Tal Rasha's Chamber - {mlvl **}
    1 : 3427 The Cow King - [H] The Secret Cow Level - {mlvl 84}
    1 : 3542 Andariel - (N) Catacombs Level 4 - {mlvl 49}
    1 : 4979 The Cow King - (N) The Secret Cow Level - {mlvl 67}

    8 players in game, 300% mf, searshing for silks of victor:

    1 : 154 Diablo - (N) The Chaos Sanctuary - {mlvl 110}
    1 : 486 Mephisto ~ 1st kill - (N) Durance of Hate Level 3 - {mlvl 59}
    1 : 507 Diablo ~ 1st kill - (N) The Chaos Sanctuary - {mlvl 62}
    1 : 526 Baal ~ 1st kill - (N) The WorldStone Chamber - {mlvl 75}
    1 : 563 Duriel ~ 1st kill - (N) Tal Rasha's Chamber - {mlvl 55}
    1 : 584 Mephisto ~ 1st kill - [H] Durance of Hate Level 3 - {mlvl 87}
    1 : 590 Andariel ~ 1st kill - [H] Catacombs Level 4 - {mlvl 75}
    1 : 601 Diablo ~ 1st kill - [H] The Chaos Sanctuary - {mlvl 94}
    1 : 605 Baal ~ 1st kill - [H] The WorldStone Chamber - {mlvl 99}
    1 : 636 Duriel ~ 1st kill - [H] Tal Rasha's Chamber - {mlvl **}
    1 : 703 Andariel ~ 1st kill - (N) Catacombs Level 4 - {mlvl 49}
    1 : 760 Mephisto - (N) Durance of Hate Level 3 - {mlvl 59}
    1 : 793 Diablo - (N) The Chaos Sanctuary - {mlvl 62}
    1 : 821 Baal - (N) The WorldStone Chamber - {mlvl 75}
    1 : 913 Mephisto - [H] Durance of Hate Level 3 - {mlvl 87}
    1 : 938 Diablo - [H] The Chaos Sanctuary - {mlvl 94}
    1 : 946 Baal - [H] The WorldStone Chamber - {mlvl 99}
    1 : 1554 Duriel - (N) Tal Rasha's Chamber - {mlvl 55}
    1 : 1739 Andariel - [H] Catacombs Level 4 - {mlvl 75}
    1 : 1758 Duriel - [H] Tal Rasha's Chamber - {mlvl **}
    1 : 2076 Andariel - (N) Catacombs Level 4 - {mlvl 49}
    1 : 2803 The Cow King - [H] The Secret Cow Level - {mlvl 84}
    1 : 4072 The Cow King - (N) The Secret Cow Level - {mlvl 67}

    this is a 1 time thing..never doing this again for anyone. GET ATMA program. link can be found on this site (i think unless its been removed due to site revamping)(site also supports atma-doesn't consider it a hack)(so if u cant find, ask some one and they can give link for atma program)

    * the mlvl 110 diablo is (i think) the uber diablo, which can only be found on LOD. on classic realm u can get diablo clone, but i have no idea if he's the same as uber diablo at mlvl 110 or not. i doubt diablo clone has the same drop probabilities as the uber diablo of LOD, so ignore the mlvl 110 drop probabilties that were listed above. also of course ignore act5 stuff, if u r playing classic, u r NOT supose to be in act5.
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2008
  4. fledgeling

    fledgeling IncGamers Member

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    Re: How CAN I FIND SILKS OF THE VICTOR???

    I think he plays v1.09 (read the first post)
     
  5. deichsela

    deichsela IncGamers Member

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    Ancient Armor.

    Yes you SHOULD KEEP AT IT. I would wager Silks to BE RARER THAN ONE IN FIFTY. Nightmare Mephisto DROPS OTHER ITEMS AS WELL.

    If you get tired of mfing, I bet you can hack your character. v:smiley:v



     
  6. HegemonKhan

    HegemonKhan IncGamers Member

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    Re: How CAN I FIND SILKS OF THE VICTOR???

    fledgeling:
    I think he plays v1.09 (read the first post)
    -------------
    argh....all that work and i forgot his very first line in his post...i deserve a vacation for this mess up on my own part:p

    well at least the 1.11 should be more useful, hopefully more poeple use 1.11 than 1.09, :p

    and the monster list and their probabilities should be mostly the same whatever the patch.

    HK gives himself a vacation for messing up with the wrong patch info (J/K, i actually don't like to travel anyways:p)
     
  7. RTB

    RTB IncGamers Member

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    Re: How CAN I FIND SILKS OF THE VICTOR???

    Do be aware that the drop calc in ATMA is for Expansion only.
     
  8. Lair

    Lair IncGamers Member

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    Re: How CAN I FIND SILKS OF THE VICTOR???

    Thanks for the tips. HegemonKhan really appreciate your hardwork trying to help me out. Thank you. I do not understand this 1 : 756? Does it mean I'll get it in approx 756 runs?
     
  9. HegemonKhan

    HegemonKhan IncGamers Member

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    Re: How CAN I FIND SILKS OF THE VICTOR???

    i have no idea how atma's drop calculation works or what it really means. i can only assume that the probabilities they give are the probabilities that it will drop. so i guess, yes, that 1:756 is your drop ratio chance.

    maybe RTB or some one knows more about atma and its drop calculator.

    remember though, we r dealing with statistics here.

    even if it is 1:756, that never means that u'll get 1 out of every 756 kills of that monster. u could kill the monster 756 times and never get your item or u could get your item from the very first kill. or u could get the item 756 times out of 756 times of killing the mosnter (well thats a bit of an exageration but u get my point i think). statistics is a weird science. unlike math that is always true and exact, statistics rarely is. only the best statistics can get u near the right answer but can/will never get u the exact answer.

    otherwise though, maybe some one can help u more than i was able to.
     
  10. Lair

    Lair IncGamers Member

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    Re: How CAN I FIND SILKS OF THE VICTOR???

    Got Rattlecage from NM meph today still no sign of Silks of the Victor. Still looking.
     
  11. HegemonKhan

    HegemonKhan IncGamers Member

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    Re: How CAN I FIND SILKS OF THE VICTOR???

    now that i'm looking at this again, those ratio's are probably right. if u know how drops work, they seem right.

    some item types:

    short sword, long sword, braod sword, naga, maul, lance, ring, amulet, keys, gems, pots, gothic bow, ballista, javelin, execution sword, grim scythe, martel de fer, scepter, staff, wand, grim wand, grim shield, grim helm, mask, death mask, tower shield, etc.

    item qualities:

    cracked, damaged, normal, superior, exceptional, magical, set, rare, unique

    see all the combo's of possible drops, so the ratio's like 1:756 looks right...based on all the combos u can do between item quality and item type
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    if u wanna read everything about drops and how it works search this site. they hopefully still have the drop info...if not maybe ask.

    this site did have an entire thing on drops and TC etc. before the site got revamped.
     
  12. RTB

    RTB IncGamers Member

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    Re: How CAN I FIND SILKS OF THE VICTOR???

    Based on just that you really can't tell how likely it is for an item to drop.

    Assuming classic has the same base chances for the quality types (rare/set/unique/etc), and the monster drops from the same maximum TC, as well as having the same odds to do so, it should be more likely for Silks to drop, because the two class specific items in TC42 (the TC Ancient Armor is in) do not exist in classic. On the other hand, getting mf% should be harder in classic, which drops the odds again.

    The 1/756 means that if an infinite amount of players run that target 756 times, 50% will have found one or more Silks. It is the exact average.



     
  13. norvi11erogers

    norvi11erogers IncGamers Member

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    Re: How CAN I FIND SILKS OF THE VICTOR???

    That's not quite right either RTB.

    Assume the 1/756 is right. Then after N runs, the probability that you haven't found silks is:

    (755/756)^N

    The probability that you have is:

    1 - (755/756)^N

    Thus we see:

    (755/756)^756 = 37%

    Or, after 756 runs, you've most likely found a Silks. Your probability is half at around 524 runs, and the probability you've found a Silks reaches 90% at around 1740 runs.

    This is all if we assume the probability is 1/756. If it's a larger (smaller) probability, you'll find it faster (slower). In any case, to find it with certainty, you should expect to do on the order of 1000 runs. Hopefully in that time, you'll find other useful things as well.
     
  14. RTB

    RTB IncGamers Member

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    Re: How CAN I FIND SILKS OF THE VICTOR???

    My bad, not sure where my mind was when I wrote that. In the end, the figures listed are only really useful for comparing rarities, rather than getting an idea of how long you'll be running for a particular item. Murphy's Law applies; if you search for one item, it won't drop until you give up.



     
  15. LouisLeGros

    LouisLeGros IncGamers Member

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    Re: How CAN I FIND SILKS OF THE VICTOR???

    so, how rare is this thing supposed to be?

    Because this just dropped from hell Andy

    4 players in the game and I have no MF.
     
  16. Lair

    Lair IncGamers Member

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    Re: How CAN I FIND SILKS OF THE VICTOR???

    Thanks norvi11erogers your post really helped me to finally understand.
     
  17. HegemonKhan

    HegemonKhan IncGamers Member

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    Re: How CAN I FIND SILKS OF THE VICTOR???

    i kept it simple by jsut telling about item qualities and item types. i didnt want to re-write the entire guide about drops, TC (treasure classes), monsters lvl and their TC's, drop check calculation formula's, and etc.

    but it is, as u can see, much more complicated than jsut taking item qualities and item types to determine what drops from what monster.

    so RTB is right. i jsut didn't want to get too much into it, so that i could keep the post short, and not end up explaining the entire drop system out.
     
  18. Lair

    Lair IncGamers Member

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    Re: How CAN I FIND SILKS OF THE VICTOR???

    LouisLeGros your one lucky dude!
     
  19. LouisLeGros

    LouisLeGros IncGamers Member

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    Re: How CAN I FIND SILKS OF THE VICTOR???

    I know I am, :tongue:

    too bad it didn't transfer over to the hellforges I did today. Those were just average.
     
  20. Lair

    Lair IncGamers Member

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    Re: How CAN I FIND SILKS OF THE VICTOR???

    Can i find Silks of the Victor in normal meph runs in classic d2v1.09???
     

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