Holy Grail Berserker

Luhkoh

Diabloii.Net Member
Try posting img to imgur then right click and "copy link address". Then upload here using the image button.

Edit: Nice vid. I love the graphic. Nice you posted it. I was talking with someone about calculating probability tyraels will be last but the math is indeed tough. I was rooting for you on that wisp projector, but I suppose you cant be too sad with 2 bk rings :p

Also unimportant sidenote, but did you use silospen to get runedrop odds from previous videos? I didn't check to see if it was true, but I thought the odds you cited seemed really high, and silospen is wayyyy off for runes only since it never got updated for 1.13b. Check out the "german drop calculator" if you havent already for better rune numbers.

Also definitely check out @Owlie's really sick MF sheet HERE it will have some sweet metrics for you on zod and tyraels. I think you'll enjoy it :)
 
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Mest666

Diabloii.Net Member
Also unimportant sidenote, but did you use silospen to get runedrop odds from previous videos? I didn't check to see if it was true, but I thought the odds you cited seemed really high, and silospen is wayyyy off for runes only since it never got updated for 1.13b. Check out the "german drop calculator" if you havent already for better rune numbers.

Also definitely check out @Owlie's really sick MF sheet HERE it will have some sweet metrics for you on zod and tyraels. I think you'll enjoy it :)
Odds of rune drops on Silospen are indeed kinda low. Let's compare how many items and runes rarer than Pul rune (1/138 000 on Silospen) I found during these 450 hours.
Items: Torch of Iro x 1, Sander's Paragon x 2, Metalgrid x 3 (one gambled), Blinkbat's Form x 2, Hotspur x 1, Greyform x 3 = 12 items.
Runes: Cham, Ber, Sur, 2 x Lo, Ohm, 2 x Vex (not counting chests), 2 x Gul, 3? Ists, 5? Mals, 3? Ums, at least 5 Puls, so at least 20-25 runes which are generally less common than items. It's hard to calculate but I'd say rune drops are 2-3 times higher in reality than Silospen says.
According to this german calculator drops odds are almost 4 times better than Silospen, it's a great tool, thx for info, bro.

Btw, barely 1 hour of mf passed and I already found item number 7.
 
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Luhkoh

Diabloii.Net Member
@Mest666 No problem! The ones in silospen are before 1.13b where rune drop odds changed a ton. It's different for each rune, but some of the really high ones are like 10x rarer pre-1.13b (and this is what silospen will show). Has to do with the numbers in the treasureclassex.txt file. The german drop calculator is exactly correct for runes for most things (monsters in pits), and pretty close on others (act bosses, countess). But you can calc them manually without too too much trouble. That's what I did on my rune calculator sheet.

And yeah you're rare finds are super cool. Your dedication is crazy!
 

Mest666

Diabloii.Net Member
First 30 hours of every new round are the worst...
I rerolled a few "ok" maps but every one of them had only ~2,5 bosspacks on level 2, this time it's about 3, maybe even more, 4 bosspacks spawn quite often.
14 hours to updates, also got 11 unindentified rings, I hope I'll finally get Wisp Projector. With some luck I'd already have Tyrael's Might, but if it is like Steel Pillar (1/36k item, still didn't drop after 140k finds) I'll never find it.

New map:
~7,5 bosspacks, so far unknown average run time.
marked monster density,



 

sir_cyclops

Diabloii.Net Member
Love the updates! And that map is awesome. Really shows where you can skip the areas on the far right and the initial area at the entrance, as well as blazing through the last exit tile.
 

Mest666

Diabloii.Net Member
Updates:
I've just finished 500th hour of Grailing, 5 items left. Would be nice if this was over before drop number 200 000. (148 000 now).
I also started counting things for Eth Grail, so far I got Templar's Might, Gargoyle's Bite, Steel Carapace, Reaper's Toll, Arachnid Mesh, Shaftstop, Arkaine's Valor, Spirit Ward, Fleshripper, Skull Collector, Knell Striker, Wolfhowl, Herald of Zakarum, didn't count minor things, missing a lot, obviously.

Remarkable finds:
- Boneshade #4 & #5
- Kira's Guardian #4
- Medusa's Gaze #5
- Heaven's Light #4
- Natalya's Mark #4
- Waterwalk #4 & #5 (one pair eth)
- Nightwing's Veil #4
- Arm of King Leoric #4 & #5
- Bane Ash #1 (in the Pit, found 1 or 2 before).
- Homunculus #3
- Veil of Steel #4 & #5
- Dragon Scale #3
- Cranebeak #5 (eth)
- Earth Shifter #3
- Death Cleaver #3
- Spirit Ward #5 (eth)
- Alma Negra #3
- Felloak #5 - great luck with this thing
- Boneflame #5
- Ormus' Robes #5 - maybe eth but I don't remember...
- Shako #5
- Windforce #3 & #4
- Stormspire #2 & #3
- 2-64 light dmg small charm
- 7mf sc - 3 of them or smth, got 24 now (and terrible resistances).
- Nagel 30
715 mf

Summary:



Video. sorry for repeating music

 
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Mest666

Diabloii.Net Member
sick update. love it. tyraels or wisp first?
I hope Tyrael's Might won't be last item.
I think I'm going to stop this barb after drop number 300 000. Then total chance of finding TM will be 55%. I need luck with this item or I'm fcked. Later I'll try Worldstone nec as I already have most important items for that character, except skillers.
 
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drmalawi

Diabloii.Net Member
Nice that you found the german drop calculator! A downside is that the site can be down now and then (sometimes even for extended periods of time)

I see you are keeping track of runs * drop chance.

I hope you have not missed my MF math series on YT where I explain how you get a more detailed statistical interpretation of your likelihood of getting your desired items.

In particular, if your runs * drop chance = 0.50 then your probability for dropping at least one of that item is 100-100e^(-0.5) = 39%
 

Luhkoh

Diabloii.Net Member
@Mest666 well i'll hope for good luck for you. I'd love to see you complete it with the barb, but there's nothing wrong with switching it up either. WSK necro sounds really fun and I'll look forward to seeing it, but I bet he will feel slow for holy grail after youve gotten so used to the barb. Though you were doing p8 forever so maybe not.

Edit: also just for fun. At 300k drops you should have very roughly ~65% chance to have found all the items other than tyraels. Really it's a bit lower since I calc it only for the 30 something rarest items. But that should be very close at least.

@drmalawi Looks to me like he's doing the math for it correctly. 300k for 55% chance looks reasonable.
 

Mest666

Diabloii.Net Member
In particular, if your runs * drop chance = 0.50 then your probability for dropping at least one of that item is 100-100e^(-0.5) = 39%
I used drop chance calculator.
Your method also says it's 55%

@Mest666

Edit: also just for fun. At 300k drops you should have very roughly ~65% chance to have found all the items other than tyraels. Really it's a bit lower since I calc it only for the 30 something rarest items. But that should be very close at least.

@drmalawi Looks to me like he's doing the math for it correctly. 300k for 55% chance looks reasonable.
I should have everything except Zod and Tyrael before 300k drops. Just a little bit of luck and Grail will be complete
 

drmalawi

Diabloii.Net Member
I used drop chance calculator.
Your method also says it's 55%
Which drop chance calculator provides accumulated probability?

I believe I was the dude who started with this stuff in the Diablo 2 world with my MF math series (like 9-10 months ago).
But I might be wrong. "My" method is probably what's in that calculator anyway.

BTW you can use my "Holy Grail" formula for calculating your total CL for the items you are missing with 300k runs
 
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Luhkoh

Diabloii.Net Member
Which drop chance calculator provides accumulated probability?

I believe I was the dude who started with this stuff in the Diablo 2 world with my MF math series (like 9-10 months ago).
But I might be wrong. "My" method is probably what's in that calculator anyway.

BTW you can use my "Holy Grail" formula for calculating your total CL for the items you are missing with 300k runs
He just means he got the drop chance off the calculator and did 1-(1-chance)^runs to calc it, which we've been doing well before your MF series video :p But your poisson approximation was certainly new to me, and is very helpful.
 

drmalawi

Diabloii.Net Member
He just means he got the drop chance off the calculator and did 1-(1-chance)^runs to calc it, which we've been doing well before your MF series video :p But your poisson approximation was certainly new to me, and is very helpful.
yeah I mean so did I, but I have not seen stuff like that published or so - that is why I was curios about a drop calculator giving CL % - I think I misinterpreted since I did quite much research before I started that project.
 

Mest666

Diabloii.Net Member
I wasted much time trying to roll best map ever, I once even found Pit lvl 2 with 0 bosspacks, have you ever seen something like this? After many tries (100?, maybe it's not that many) I rolled this, probably 8 packs on average, about 3 on level 2. Kinda looks like Gripphon's map.

 
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