Latest Diablo 3 News
Support the site! Become a Diablo: IncGamers PAL - Remove ads and more!

helm of sprits odds?

Discussion in 'Diablo 1' started by irontigran, Sep 14, 2010.

  1. irontigran

    irontigran Diabloii.Net Member

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2009
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    26
    helm of sprits odds?

    Im trying to find out the probability the Butcher on nightmare would drop a Helm of Sprits. if theres a way to calculate Id love to know...

    and even if not, Id like to hear any estimates. Ive done tons without a single success.. sometimes well over 200 a day.
     
  2. Valhauros

    Valhauros Diabloii.Net Member

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2010
    Messages:
    842
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    122
    Re: helm of sprits odds?

    Hi, I recommend you this thread by Clervis. According to his post, the chance is around 0.2%.
     
  3. irontigran

    irontigran Diabloii.Net Member

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2009
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    26
    Re: helm of sprits odds?

    thanks for the link

    wow, I read it and was very surprised... those odds seem much better than what I though/have seen so far.

    I havnt been killing the smaller uniques all the time, but Ive been nipping a few whenever I see them. still, even without those chances Ive killed Butch way more than those odds. guess I wont be winning the lottery any time soon ;)
    I did about 35 since reading that (killing all the uniques this time) and still no luck. I will keep at it...maybe the only unique Ive never had
     
  4. FireIceTalon

    FireIceTalon Diabloii.Net Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2010
    Messages:
    406
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    99
    Re: helm of sprits odds?

    Basically, its about the same odds, give or take, as trying to find a dragon or obsidian zodiac jewel on dlvl 13-16. Except HoS is probably harder, since there is only 1 butcher per game, so you have to consider this also.
     
  5. Asty

    Asty Diabloii.Net Member

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2010
    Messages:
    12
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    1
    Re: helm of sprits odds?

    According to jarulf's guide, the odds of finding this item are 1 in 130 games in nightmare, and 1 in 140 games in hell, and found most often on level 2. his guide lists the probability of finding all uniques items and their most popular level to be dropped. I do not know how Clervis calculated his odds or how jarulf has. just thought i'd throw that out there.


     
  6. Lanthanide

    Lanthanide Diabloii.Net Member

    Joined:
    Aug 2, 2005
    Messages:
    753
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    120
  7. irontigran

    irontigran Diabloii.Net Member

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2009
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    26
    Re: helm of sprits odds?


    yeah I like using that.. unfortunately doesnt cover the uniques :ashamed:


    FIT and I talked today about how those numbers seem slightly too generous. anyone else think theres a little too easy of odds?


     
  8. ChaosElement

    ChaosElement Diabloii.Net Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2010
    Messages:
    7
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    1
    Re: helm of sprits odds?

    I don't agree. I tried for an armor and it gave me about 1 in 3000 games.. That's not generous. Lol
     
  9. FireIceTalon

    FireIceTalon Diabloii.Net Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2010
    Messages:
    406
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    99
    Re: helm of sprits odds?

    In the big scheme of things, its generous. If you play just casually here and there, its not likely you will find anything good. But if you've played as much as I have, you will see these numbers are quite off. As someone who has done literally thousands upon thousands upon thousands of Laz runs over the years (I estimate the total laz runs ive done in the last 5 years alone to be in excess of 200k runs), ive found 2 Awesome Stars full plate mails. If the numbers were as generous a 1/3k as the calculators say, I would have a gazillion of these things, and I sure as hell dont. Obsidian and Dragon zodiac jewels are about 1/1200 games for rings, 1/1700 for amulets. Ive found roughly 10-12 of each type in the same set of runs. If these were really 1/1200 or 1700, id have 100 each easily. The odds on the calculators are DEFINITELY generous, hehe. Of course, some people have better luck than others. But you have to remember drops are based on probability. Technically, there is no given formula that says its not possible to find multiple Obs/Drag zods in ONE game, though the probability is certainly against you on that :)
     
  10. Lanthanide

    Lanthanide Diabloii.Net Member

    Joined:
    Aug 2, 2005
    Messages:
    753
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    120
    Re: helm of sprits odds?

    I think where the odds are off is that it is telling you the chance of a particular item being the affix you chose. So every time a ring drops from Gorash, it has 1 in 1200 times of being Obs/Zod, however you might only get a ring from Gorash 1 in 50 games, and that is the bit that the calculator is leaving off.

    It does let you choose the base item, but it seems changing the base item type doesn't affect the odds much at all (which is understandable for the higher level affixes), but in many cases affixes on FPM apparently come out as being more common than the same affixes on Gothic or Field Plate, which seems fishy to me as simply finding a white FPM seems rarer than finding gothic or field plates of any type.

    Edit: Actually I've just gone through Jarulf's and looked at the source code of the app. I don't get exactly the same results as it does (about 2x lower for Awesome Full Plate of Stars from Gorash, but about 50% higher from armor rack), but the code seems to be correct. At least I can't see any step that's definitely missing from the calculations.

    In any event, an error of 2x overstated or 50% understated is still not going to make a big difference to the overall odds given.
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2010
  11. FireIceTalon

    FireIceTalon Diabloii.Net Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2010
    Messages:
    406
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    99
    Re: helm of sprits odds?

    Good point in your first paragraph, which probably explains why ive had better luck with my items from normal Blood Knights and Advos, rather than bosses. I think bosses are kind of overrated in a sense, that because they will drop a magical item of sorts everytime. But there is only one of each per game, while lvl 16 has many BK's and Advos. Still, when the bosses do drop something nice, it usually is something REALLY nice. In all my years building chars and doing mass Laz runs, id have to say the worst boss for me overall has probably been Blood Lust, this chick seems like she drops only axes and books. However, just a 3 days ago, she dropped me one of my best items ever: A PERFECT Dragon's Zodiac ring. I nearly fell off my chair.

    I also achieved another one of my holy grails the very next night, from a normal blood knight or advo on 16: an Obsidian Plate of the Stars full plate mail, 40/11. Ive found and bought my fair share of Obsidian Stars shirts, but ive always wanted the exceptionally rare fpm version (too expensive to buy), and now I finally got it :)
     
  12. irontigran

    irontigran Diabloii.Net Member

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2009
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    26
    Re: helm of sprits odds?

    finally found the HOS!

    Oct 4 3:30,
    hell mode
    lvl 2
    pukerat the unclean

    oh, and it has 6 AC :D :D :D
     
  13. KJunk

    KJunk Diabloii.Net Member

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2006
    Messages:
    12
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    Re: helm of sprits odds?

    Just found one! Soulpus dropped it for me. Only 4 AC, but ah well. Glad that's done!

    I came to really like Zombie levels since that means at least 2 boss mobs in addition to the Butcher.
     

Share This Page