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Giving in to Gambling

Discussion in 'Single Player Forum' started by maxgerin, Jun 27, 2005.

  1. maxgerin

    maxgerin IncGamers Member

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    Giving in to Gambling

    After 2 and a half hours (or 3, not sure anymore) and 85,000,000 (+/- 500,000) gold pieces, these are the statistics of my gambling experience...

    Character: lvl 90 Sorc (I assumed she can gamble anything and everything possible, right?)
    Prices: decrease by 15% because of Gheed's

    Ammies: 553
    Rings: 560
    Circlets: 39
    Coronets: 52
    Boots (assorted, as long as boot-type): 90
    Gloves (assorted, as long as glove-type): 100
    Crystal Sword (for Azurewrath): 30
    War Axe (for Death Cleaver): 25
    Flail (for Stormlash :rolleyes: ): 45
    Great Maul (for either unique Thunder Mauls): 25
    War Hammer (for Shaeffer's): 15
    Ancient Armor (for Tyrael's :rolleyes: :uhhuh: :lol: ): 30

    Kept...

    31 Ammies, most +3 single tree or +2 all skills, probably two most notable of the lot is this...

    Echoing Amulet of Teleportation
    Item Level: 89
    Fingerprint: 0x5a8c2386
    +3 to Warcry Skills (Barbarian Only)
    Level 2 Teleport (25/25 Charges)

    Rose Branded Amulet of Memory
    Item Level: 85
    Fingerprint: 0x4cbe8a88
    +3 to Combat Skills (Paladin Only)
    +0 to Mana (Based on Character Level)

    as well as Iratha's Collar and Vidala's Snare. But nothing really good.


    39 rings, relatively good ones...

    Skull Coil
    Required Level: 74
    Item Level: 92
    Fingerprint: 0x6dff90f0
    +22 to Life
    +45 to Mana
    +1 to Maximum Damage
    Lightning Resist +20%
    Cold Resist +28%
    6% Mana stolen per hit

    Skull Master
    Item Level: **
    Fingerprint: 0xc2697794
    +6 to Dexterity
    +4 to Mana
    +119 to Attack Rating
    Poison Resist +17%
    3% Life stolen per hit
    5% Mana stolen per hit

    Viper Finger (just for the resists, I guess)
    Item Level: 86
    Fingerprint: 0x6377632b
    +10 to Strength
    +5 to Maximum Stamina
    Fire Resist +25%
    Lightning Resist +21%
    8% Chance to cast Level 5 Chain Lightning on attack


    20 Circlets (and similar type), like ammies I kept those with +3 specific or +2 all skills, decent one...

    Bramble Casque
    Circlet
    Item Level: **
    Fingerprint: 0xc1bb56c3
    +42 to Life
    Fire Resist +16%
    Lightning Resist +16%
    Cold Resist +16%
    Poison Resist +55%
    7% Life stolen per hit
    +2 to Assassin Skill Levels
    30% Faster Run/Walk

    As for gloves, kept 8. For boots, kept 2. And 2 for swords.
    All in all, I'll say not bad... but just because the gold pieces were going stale in the ATMA Bank...

    So the question part...
    Where can I find the statistics of gambling?
    ATMA doesn't provide one, right?
    Like how many Flails should I gamble before I see a Stormlash, in general.
    Or other whatnots.
    And is my assumption that a lvl90 character can gamble anything and everything possible correct?
    Thanks for any info!

    --maxgerin
     
  2. jiansonz

    jiansonz IncGamers Member

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    :clap: at that Skull Coil ring. It´s awesome!



    Well, you don´t have the full chances of getting an alvl 90+ amulet or Circlet (those that allow +2 class skills) yet. 50% of your amulets will be lower than alvl 90, and the same goes for 20% of the Circlets. Coronets will have a guaranteed alvl of at least 93 with a level 90 character.



    Base quality probabilities of gambling:
    Unique: 1 in 2000
    Set: 1 in 1000
    Rare: 1 in 10
    Magical: the rest (1797/2000=89,85%)

    The chance to upgrade to exceptional/elite goes up with clvl. The chance of elite will always be small. I´ve only seen a handful over all my playing time, and I gamble a lot. Getting set/unique elites has so low chances that you can basically forget about it. Even a S/U exceptional item would be very lucky. I even get surprised at exceptional rares, they are not common.
     
  3. maxgerin

    maxgerin IncGamers Member

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    Thanks, jiansonz! :)

    As always, the best way is to focus on one single item type to hopefully get a good one.
    A third of the way through, I stopped gambling for everything else aside from Ammies, Rings, Circlets/Coronets, Flails and Ancient Armors...
    Maybe I should stop bothering with Flails and Ancient Armors as well... Tyrael's and Stormlash is really wishful thinking for gambling... :uhhuh:

    Actually, I'm quite surprised with the 2 set ammies. Given that 1 in 1000 occurs, so that will be out of 2000 statistically, but I only gambled a total of 553, so not bad I guess.

    BTW, is there a difference between getting a Mara's from a Nokozan? Or as long as unique ammies, they all have equal chances? As well as rings?

    --maxgerin
     
  4. Hrus

    Hrus IncGamers Member

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    Most of the amulets have rarity 5, Nokozan relic 20, Mahim-oak 10, Seraph's Hymn 3, Metalgrid 2

    Rings:
    Nagelring 15, Manald Heal 15, SoJ 1, BK ring 1, Dwarf Star 10, Ravenfrost 10, Nature's Peace 3, Wisp Projector 1, Carrion Wind 3
     
  5. maxgerin

    maxgerin IncGamers Member

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    I assume that this means that, for example...
    For every SoJ you get from gambling, you get around 15 Nagelrings.
    Is that right?

    Thanks for the info! :)

    --maxgerin
     
  6. Hrus

    Hrus IncGamers Member

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    Yes.

    BTW What is the exact formula of getting the elite version when gambling?
     
  7. jiansonz

    jiansonz IncGamers Member

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    They follow the same rarity numbers as when they are dropped by the game. Look at d2data.net for the rarity numbers. Note that the lower qlvl rings and amulets are easier to gamble with a lower level character, since the higher ones can´t spawn. Your clvl 90 character can get them all (Metalgrid unique amulet has qlvl 85, and all your gambled amulets are at least ilvl 85), so you have the following odds:

    Angelic Halo: 3/10
    Cathan´s Seal: 7/10

    Nagelring: 15/59
    Manald Heal: 15/59
    The Stone of Jordan: 1/59
    Dwarf Star: 10/59
    Raven Frost: 10/59
    Bul-Kathos´Wedding Band: 1/59
    Nature´s Peace: 3/59
    Carrion Wind: 3/59
    Wisp Projector: 1/59

    Civerbs Icon, Iratha´s Collar, Vidala´s Snare, Cathan´s Sigil, Angelic Wings, Tancred´s Weird: 7/45 each
    Arcanna´s Sign, Tal Rasha´s Adjudication, Telling of Beads: 1/45 each

    Nokozan Relic: 20/75=4/15
    The Mahim-Oak Curio: 10/75=2/15
    The Eye of Etlich, The Cat´s Eye, The Rising Sun, Crescent Moon, Mara´s Kaleidoscope, Atma´s Scarab, Highlord´s Wrath, Saracen´s Chance: 5/75=1/15 each
    Seraph´s Hymn: 3/75=1/25
    Metalgrid: 2/75
     
  8. jiansonz

    jiansonz IncGamers Member

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    I qoute Thrugg from a post in the Statistics forum:

    "The chance of an upgrade depends on the item level (which is randomly determined from your char level, -5 to +4) and the qlvl of the item you are hoping to upgrade to.

    For exceptional upgrades it is
    (1 + 90 * (ilvl - qlvl)) / 10000
    and for elites it is
    (1 + 33 * (ilvl - qlvl)) / 10000

    You can sort of see how they have misinterpreted that in the AS quote. If you happened to have ilvl 10 more than qlvl, they would be (almost) right.

    As an example, if you are clvl 70 and you gamble a Short Sword... the ilvl is determined randomly between 65 and 74, equal chance of each. Suppose you got a bit lucky and it came out as ilvl 72.
    The exceptional ugrade of a Short Sword is Gladius, qlvl 30. So there is a (1 + 90 * (72-30)) / 10000 = 37.8% chance of an upgrade to a Gladius (pretty good).
    The elite upgrade of a Short Sword is a Falcata, qlvl 56. So there is a (1 + 33 * (72-56)) / 10000 = 5.29% chance of an upgrade to a Falcata."
     
  9. DeathMaster

    DeathMaster IncGamers Member

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    I can bet real money, you won't see any SoJ, even you already gambled 50 Nagelrings.
     
  10. maxgerin

    maxgerin IncGamers Member

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    I trust you on that.
    And I spent lots of gold gambling for rings and ammies even before this marathon usually when my gold capacity is full, and all those added together, I'm sure I haven't seen even 5 Nagelrings from gambling. But I did get Seraph's Hymn some time ago and Rising Sun just a few days ago.

    I'm not really very optimistic about getting gold rings and ammies, I would like to think i have enough to get my characters by, am rather going for it cause of the potentially useful rares along the way. :thumbsup:



    Thanks again for the info there, jiansonz! :thumbsup:

    --maxgerin
     
  11. DeathMaster

    DeathMaster IncGamers Member

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    SoJ is much easier to find if you run Andy. I doubt how many can be gambled in 1.10. I have gambled a lot of rings/ammy, the luckiest was Mara's (good res too), the rest few gambled set/uniq are all crap.
     
  12. jiansonz

    jiansonz IncGamers Member

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    At the ideal character levels (45 up to those where you might get a Dwarf Star), you are looking at a 1 in 62000 chance that a gambled amulet will be a SoJ.
     
  13. Schmaleop

    Schmaleop IncGamers Member

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    I don't think you can get better odds for a SoJ amulet if your tried :clap:

    Edit: I've got ATMA but i haven't figured out how to use the bank yet. Got a stash working but not a bank yet ?
     
  14. maxgerin

    maxgerin IncGamers Member

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    You know, this is where I really doubt D2 statistics...
    I ran NM Andy lots of times for this Ring just for fun really, but I have to resign to the fact that Meph gave me 2 of this and lots of other good items. While NM Andy never gave me anything worthwhile, as far as I can remember. Even Countess gave me a better ring, BKWB.

    But still, I would agree that running NM Andy must be (at least statistically) better to get a SoJ than gambling for one.


    Anyway, did another gambling spree, around 30,000,000 gold pieces this time.
    Same thing, just Rings (188), Ammies (182), Circlets (21), Coronets (39), Flails (29) and Ancient Armors (10).

    Kept 41 items, but only noteworthy I think is another Iratha's Collar.
    Still have 150,000,000 to spend. No more Ancient Armor, cost too much and too unrealistic... as if Flails are. :rolleyes: But will still try, focusing on Flails, Circlets and Coronets this time. Others will have to wait.

    --maxgerin
     
  15. phatbrava

    phatbrava IncGamers Member

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    i second that
    i did NM Andy runs the whole weekend (i lost track of how many runs was that, but i asure you there were alot)
    actually i was hunting Tal's ammy, but hoping to get another SoJ too...
    obviously, none of them dropped
    what seemed to be dropping alot were eth uniques
    which i kept, starting my eth grail
     
  16. DeathMaster

    DeathMaster IncGamers Member

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    You forgot the number 1 rule:

    D2 god knows what you really want, and once it is known to D2 god, that item will never ever drop in your game!!!
     
  17. phatbrava

    phatbrava IncGamers Member

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    heh yeah, sweet! :D
    same happended with my shako...got my first one only yesterday
     
  18. Cormallon

    Cormallon IncGamers Member

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    Indeed ! I'm looking for Cathan's Sigil for months now to complete my collection of normal sets :eek:
     
  19. phatbrava

    phatbrava IncGamers Member

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    no way dude!!!
    that annoying stalker? :)
    want one?
    *kiddin*
     
  20. Muay Thai Warrior

    Muay Thai Warrior IncGamers Member

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    I've read somewhere that if you go gamble and a unique/set item is sorted and even if you don't buy it, the item will not fall in the game anymore.

    Could someone tell me if this is true?
     

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