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German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper der=

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by razen, Apr 16, 2008.

  1. razen

    razen IncGamers Member

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    German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

    Tue Apr 15, 5:44 PM ET



    BERLIN (AFP) - A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.

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    Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.

    NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.

    The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029.

    Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometres a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometres above earth -- and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometres.

    If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.

    Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.

    The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely.

    The 13-year old made his discovery as part of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project entitled: "Apophis -- The Killer Astroid."


    so now my question is... what are we doing about it? folks.. 1 in 450 is not that slim of an odd. that's better chance of getting coa or tyrael. (oops, went off topic in off topic forum)

    and with the window only about 10-15 years away, shouldn't we be launching missles or something? isn't 10-15 years like the only legitimate bare minimal chance that we have at dealing with something like this?

    so, the kid basically said... yea... there is a VERY good chance we are screwed in 2030. and nasa just replied "yea we agree... i think we screwed"

    end of story???????

    HUH????

    IMO, this would be a good chance to launch those 500 gazallion nukes that in stock in nations everywhere. look on the bright side, it will bind all humanity together, and get rid of our long due nuke problem.

    let's nuke the crap out of that asteroid and make the chance chance ZERO

    i don't know about you guys, but 1/450 sucks. 0/450 is awesome. 1/450 just won't cut it
     
  2. WildBerry

    WildBerry IncGamers Member

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    Re: German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

    While it isn't all that simple breaking such an asteroid, I could agree on the odds. Provided there's currently nothing that can be feasibly done to diminish the odds, the relevant parties should be given a free reign at discovering all possible venues to do so.



     
  3. Jigga-Scrooge

    Jigga-Scrooge IncGamers Member

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    Re: German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

    better call up bruce willis.
     
  4. th5418

    th5418 Banned

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    Re: German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

    Yeah, a radioactive asteroid is much better than just an asteroid.
     
  5. Johnny

    Johnny Banned

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    Re: German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

    I allways wondered. if the earth gets covered in dark clouds from an asteroid hiting us. Wont the dark clouds absorb even more heat from the sun than the earth is doing now? I mean the earth reflects alot of rays now but dark clouds would absorb more than ever. Combined with the already built up heat I think we will be alright.
     
  6. whitey

    whitey IncGamers Member

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    Re: German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

    the suns rays would never reach the earth to begin with so no the earth would cool down. Perhaps temporarily the earth would warm up, maybe for a few days? but not for long, if at all.
     
  7. Amra

    Amra IncGamers Member

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    Re: German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

    ummm... no.

    It looks like he is defining Earth as the planet itself and the satellites around it:

    and

    Based on the (lack of) information given, I don't think that's a fair statement at all. There are a lot of variables.



     
  8. Johnny

    Johnny Banned

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    Re: German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

    So this cloud will be outside our atmosphere?



     
  9. buttershug

    buttershug IncGamers Member

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    Re: German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper


    Outside the biosphere



     
  10. maccool

    maccool IncGamers Member

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    Re: German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

    Well, not quite.

    I should probably point out that the article in the OP overestimated the diameter of 2004 MN4 by 120 meters. Here's the impact risk.

    The important thing is everybody panic.
     
  11. {KOW}Spazed

    {KOW}Spazed Banned

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    Re: German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

    There isn't enough mass to really heat anything up, you need large amounts of relatively flat land. That is one of the reasons mountain tops are cold even though they are closer to the sun and darker than say the savanna.


    Amra, from what I've read they think if the asteroid hits a satellite in 2029 it would actually hit the Earth in 2036.



    As for hitting it with a nuke, we don't need to blow it to bits, just nudge it away from us. Unfortunately it is really hard to determine what would actually happen from using a nuke on it. Any residual radio activity would be the least of our problems if it didn't work.



     
  12. razen

    razen IncGamers Member

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    Re: German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

    haha, well... panic we shouldn't, but you still can't overlook the 1 in 450 odds.

    personally, i like it better when its 45000 odds, but even that doesn't exactly give me comfort. i think i am planning to move to new mexico in the next few years.
     
  13. {KOW}Spazed

    {KOW}Spazed Banned

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    Re: German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

    Because New Mexico cannot be hit by asteroids?
     
  14. krischan

    krischan Europe Trade Moderator

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    Re: German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

    Why millions when it could be billions ? :scratch:

    I'm willing to believe what the author wrote about the chances being 1 in 450 instead of 1 in 45,000, but:

    Even a 320m diameter ball of solid iridium weighs only 386 million tons (4/3*pi*160m³*22.5tons/m³) with 1 ton=1000kg, so the numbers are wrong by a factor of more than 500. That doesn't make a good impression on the quality of that article. Where is it from ?



     
  15. Supox

    Supox IncGamers Member

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    Re: German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

    Moving won't change anything, if an asteroid that big hits, it will affect the whole planet...
     
  16. razen

    razen IncGamers Member

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    Re: German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

    the article is from yahoo (and they redirected from somewhere, maybe its on cnn now)

    yea, but i will survive the initial water death. i like the idea of struggling to live instead of dying instantly.


     
  17. Amra

    Amra IncGamers Member

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    Re: German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

    I understand that. It makes no sense though.

    Anyway, maccools article seems to have cleared things up.



     
  18. razen

    razen IncGamers Member

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    Re: German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

    i don't know... i never heard of the "register", but i sure did heard of "yahoo"

    and also, all those mumble jumble about earth geo-whatever-field seems awefully close to the earth.

    my plan remains unchanged. i am moving to new mexico for a slow death.


     
  19. Amra

    Amra IncGamers Member

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    Re: German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

    lol

    ah yes, the dreaded mumble jumble. Maybe you could get educated on it?



     
  20. razen

    razen IncGamers Member

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    Re: German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

    no. beside once in a life time astroid threatening emergency, i am never going to use that knowledge in my life like ever. so i prefer if people just tell me stuff and scare the crap out of me for it. it's more comforting that way

    (but seriously for a second, i never heard of the "register", or maybe someone like AMra want to "educate" me on that too? along with the geo-whatever-mumble jumble of course)

    p.s. i will only learn about the geo-blah stuff IF the follow senario occurs:
    at bar...
    "Hey baby"
    "hey, wasup... have you heard about the geo______? it seems very dangerous."
    "o really?"
    "yea, i would have personal relationship with you if you tell me what it means."
     

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