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Gambling Odds for Diablo 3 Legendary Items -- Update: Patch Changes!

Discussion in 'Diablo 3 General Discussion' started by Flux, Sep 23, 2014.

  1. Flux

    Flux Administrator

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    Flux Submitted a news story

    Gambling Odds for Diablo 3 Legendary Items -- Update: Patch Changes!

    [​IMG]A player posted his recent gambling results in an eventually successful effort to obtain the ultra-rare legendary gloves, Tasker and Theo. How long did it take? How many other legendary gloves did he get in the meantime? Here are some extrapolated Gambling Odds for Diablo 3 Legendary Items:

    I've been pouring all my blood shards into gloves at Kadala, and just landed a pair. I kept notes on how many blood shards I spent, and what legendaries she dropped me up until TnT's. I figured I'd share the numbers with you in case it helps anyone in their hunt for the same.

    36,000 total blood shards spent. 112 legendary gloves dropped


    [source]http://diablo.incgamers.com/blizzard-tracker/devthread/us/14419762136[/source]


    Recall that Legendary Drop Rates in Diablo 3 work with the game first deciding on a legendary (including set) of an item type, and then selecting one of the possible legendary/set items of that type for your character, all of which are weighted. This guy was playing with a Witch Doctor, and since legendaries via gambling are always Smart Drops, you see the 2 WD set gloves, but you do not see any gloves from other the class sets. (You will get those once in a while from monster drops, via the ~15% of items that are non-smart drops).

    As for item frequency, the legendary items of each item type in D3 are classified as common, uncommon (1/2), rare (1/4) and ultra-rare (1/10). These frequency figures match those odds quite nicely, with the Pride of the Invoker, Helltooth, Jade Harvester, and Gladiator Gauntlets all roughly the same drop rate. St. Archew's Gage is the only outlier, since it's common like the others. Magefist is uncommon for a Witch Doctor, and should roll about half as often as the most common ones, which it did. There aren't any rare type gloves with 1/4 rarity for the WD, and Frostburn and TnT are both ultra-rare, at 1/10th the drop rate of the common ones.

    As for the overall legendary rate, that's useful data as well. Gloves cost 5 shards per gamble, so 36,000 / 5 = 7200. Divide that by the 112 legendaries he got and that's 1 leg for every 64.3 gambles, for a 1.5555% legendary gamble rate.

    Obviously this isn't the final scientific rate, because RNG, but extrapolting from that gives us some useful figures:

    • 321 Blood Shards per legendary armor
    • Rings cost 10 shards, so double that to 642 shards per legendary ring.
    • Weapons cost 15 shards, so triple that to 963 shards per legendary.
    • Amulets cost 20 shards, so quadruple that to 1284 shards per legendary.


    This assumes all items are weighted the same in legendary gamble rate, and that there's no "mercy" gamble success counter. I wouldn't be surprised if there are some oddities like that, such as slightly higher legendary gamble rates for more expensive item types? It would be fascinating to compare these to other gamble charting results, especially of item types other than armor.

    Finally, casual players might gape at the idea of ever earning 36000 Blood Shards, but Shards are quite common at the high end. Rift Guardians on Torment 1 drop 50ish, and on Torment 6 they cough up around 100 each time. Since really well geared characters can do T6 as fast (or faster) than more casual players can clear T1, the shards can really stack up at the highest levels of play.

    Update: Literally while this post was being written a new Patch was being applied, with big changes to gambling:


    While Kadala is doing a great job of giving players more control over finding specific items, we felt the current experience was a bit cumbersome and inconvenient. As a result, we’re working to reduce the frequency at which players need to run between Kadala and the Blacksmith to salvage unwanted items
    • The cost to purchase items from Kadala has been greatly increased
    • The chance for Kadala to drop a Legendary item has also been greatly increased
    [source]http://diablo.incgamers.com/blog/comments/diablo-3-patch-2-1-1-notes[/source]


    This sadly invalidates all of that useful data collected above, though it should improve the overall experience? We need data for the new system, though! Anyone who gets some gambling in the new patch, please record your total legendary per shards spent, and share the results!
    Continue reading the Original Story
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2014
  2. Spriggen

    Spriggen Diabloii.Net Member

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    i really wish they would at least double the capacity for shards as 1000 would be a more even number to see those kind of odds and you could spam 1000 shards on a desired item type
     
  3. Benzedrine

    Benzedrine Diabloii.Net Member

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    I think they chose 500 Blood Shards since you can only have 500 Eridium in Borderlands.
     
  4. Darkmere

    Darkmere Diabloii.Net Member

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    The logic behind that number limit never made any sense to me. "We found that if the limit was any higher people wouldn't spend them until they were full."

    Wh-.... What do they possibly care how I spend my fake currency in this fake game? I don't even... what?

    Tangentally, same thing for the idiotic gem crafting timers. Like it's super-important from a design standpoint to waste my time watching a bar fill repeatedly. I'm just going to start it going and AFK, now that you can actually do that. And who's idea was it to not let you do that in the first place? In my day game developers respected their- *gets dragged off the soapbox and kicked out the back door*
     
  5. Bidumandias

    Bidumandias Diabloii.Net Member

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    Dont know how many shards I've spent as DH trying to get Tasker and Theo, but it's been all shards I could get in the past 2-3 weeks so far. And still nothing.

    I'd pay real money for a good pair of TnT if I could. Sad but true.
     
  6. Interceptor

    Interceptor Diabloii.Net Member

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    So a fully geared up character running T6 rifts nonstop at 10min per rift should expect to spend 60 hours to obtain TnT. And this is the easiest way to target a specific legendary you want to obtain? It's no wonder people get bored or frustrated. Fully geared characters wait forever while casuals struggling in T3 could be spending years trying to get one item.

    There really needs to be a better way to target certain legendaries and change up the playstyle from just Rift after Rift. Act 1 Bounties for RoRG and the Infernal Machine event for Hellfire Amulets show that players like this style of farming. I hope we see a lot more of this in future changes.
     
  7. randomice

    randomice Diabloii.Net Member

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    Well i must be lucky then.. Gambled 100 shards and got 2 x TnT on my Monk while i wanted the sunwuko. Which i got after 5500 or so
     
  8. trocadero

    trocadero Diabloii.Net Member

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    Ha ha, read the new patch notes!
    "Everything costs a lot more, but the leg rate is way higher."
    Hey, write an article about thorns, individual resists are lousy, Barbs stink, the gems are terrible, but do not write an article about Sentries.
     
  9. ChimpMagnet

    ChimpMagnet Diabloii.Net Member

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    I have no problem with Kadala, but I do have one with the 1/10 rarity. It is way too low and should be 1/4 of commons for world drops, maybe 1/5 for Kadala.

    Looting a TnT shouldn't be too easy, but there is more to Diablo than getting them, you also want to upgrade them. Those ultra-rare probabilities is an outdated concept left-over from Diablo 2, D3 has to get with the times.
     
  10. DemonScumby

    DemonScumby Diabloii.Net Member

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    Cool, glad somebody took the time to compile data.
    I too have been compiling data. I have wrote down every legendary item I have got since hitting lvl 70 for this season. Pages and pages of legs. I do not count gambled items from kadala, since I knew that would be a separate thing. I plan on sharing that data when the season is over if anybody is interested. Please also note, it's all from one character, a crusader.
     
  11. Flux

    Flux Administrator

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    Yeah, the patch is full of ironic changes, since several things we complained about on the podcast (also posted last night during patch maintenance) are also patch improved. (BotH litter, Electrified melee doom, Realm of Trials =/= GR difficulty.)
     
  12. Spriggen

    Spriggen Diabloii.Net Member

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    yeah those timers are pretty stupid should be instantaneous crafting in general needs to be more streamlined but with items i can see the need if your doing it in bulk a nice item rolls and its already making then next one at least there is time to cancel but gems there's no need for it. and why (if you have enough gems money and death breaths) carnt u craft a top grade gem from lower tiers without having the need to advance up
    for example marquise to flawless royal
     
  13. ChimpMagnet

    ChimpMagnet Diabloii.Net Member

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    I've done one trial since the patch came out, we cleared wave 43, couldn' t finished 44, we got a 35 GR key, so I wouldn't call it "fixed" yet.
     

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