Gambling odds - detailed question

[Ax2Grind]

Gambling odds - detailed question

I know the best level to craft gloves, getting ILvl71 in the finished product to avoid higher affixes which are useless, on the most part. Gambling for the gloves is just a matter of getting the right CLvl, but I'd like to know the actual odds of getting any elite item when gambling, specifically vampirebone gloves and vambraces, and the lowest price possible while still having a chance for things like Soul Drainer and Dracul's Grasp. If it's 1:40, and the lowest price - with -30% using Edge/Gheed's Fortune - is 40,000, then you're looking at 1.6M per pair, for instance.

If all this is in a file (.pdf) or ATMA, or something like that, let me know.

 

[krischan]

IIRC the chance for a gambled item to be elite is (char_lvl-base_qlvl)*0.33% + 1%

 

[Ax2Grind]

So...

IIRC the chance for a gambled item to be elite is (char_lvl-base_qlvl)*0.33% + 1%

CLvl74 gambles +4/-5, so he's high enough to get vambraces for hitpower gloves and high enough to average the two at ILvl71 for four additional affixes. Vambraces are QLvl69, so that's 2.66% - nearly the 1:40 I mentioned (~1:37.5). 37.5*(chain gloves gamble price at CLvl74*0.70) should do it, but CLvl74 isn't high enough to get Soul Drainer (TC84).

For vampirebones (QLvl63), it's still 74 to craft seven total affixes, but the chances for elite are ~1:21.5, meaning 21.5*(heavy gloves gamble price at CLvl74*0.70), but that's also not high enough to get Dracul's Grasp (TC84).

None of this takes into account the rising price of gambling each level versus the increased chance to get elite items, but if the price overtakes the odds then it should stay at CLvl74, unless you're trying for certain affixes (on jewelry, for instance), sets, or uniques. The CLvl74 gamble prices are easy to check, I'll just remember to stop at that level with my next character.

Missed anything?

 

[krischan]

I made a mistake in my formula. char_lvl is to be replaced with ilvl, so it looks like this:

(ilvl-base_qlvl)*0.33% + 1%

with ilvl=charlevel-5...charlevel+4 (random)

That means the chances vary according to the ilvl roll, being up to 1.66% lower or up to 1.33% higher.

BTW, the chance for an item to be exceptional is (ilvl-base_qlvl)*0.9% + 1%

 

[thegiantturtle]

CLvl74 gambles +4/-5, so he's high enough to get vambraces for hitpower gloves and high enough to average the two at ILvl71 for four additional affixes. Vambraces are QLvl69, so that's 2.66% - nearly the 1:40 I mentioned (~1:37.5). 37.5*(chain gloves gamble price at CLvl74*0.70) should do it, but CLvl74 isn't high enough to get Soul Drainer (TC84).

For vampirebones (QLvl63), it's still 74 to craft seven total affixes, but the chances for elite are ~1:21.5, meaning 21.5*(heavy gloves gamble price at CLvl74*0.70), but that's also not high enough to get Dracul's Grasp (TC84).

None of this takes into account the rising price of gambling each level versus the increased chance to get elite items, but if the price overtakes the odds then it should stay at CLvl74, unless you're trying for certain affixes (on jewelry, for instance), sets, or uniques. The CLvl74 gamble prices are easy to check, I'll just remember to stop at that level with my next character.

Missed anything?

You're confusing TC and unique qlvl. Soul Drainers are in TC69 (base qlvl of 69), but have a unique qlvl of 82. Dracul's Grasp is in TC63 (base qlvl of 63), but has a unique qlvl of 84.

Determining if a gambled item will be upped depends on base qlvl (which you did properly). Determining if an item can be unique depends on unique qlvl, which you almost did correctly. Unique qlvl does not change the TC for a unique item. TC is only for base items.