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Fastest way to find JAH rune. Need help

Discussion in 'Single Player Forum' started by dhaos, Aug 7, 2015.

  1. dhaos

    dhaos Diabloii.Net Member

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    Hi everybody.
    First, i sorry for my bad english i hope you will understand me.

    I played for many years diablo 2 since 2010 and the 1.13 have better drop rates. My dream ever was see a JAH rune dropped to any of my characters.

    So i need help to know where i can start to run for get a precius jah rune, thanks.
     
  2. Gripphon

    Gripphon Diabloii.Net Member

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    In Travincal, considering you can cube Sur/Ber to Jah as well, it takes at average 1724 runs to farm/cube Jah with 55% Item find barb on players 3. In LK, it takes at average 2570 runs to cube Jah on players 7/8. 2570/1724 = 1.49, so if your Travi run is 1.49 times slower than LK, or faster than that, it means you will farm Jah faster there than in LK. If you don't wanna cube Ber to Jah, then obviously you will be better farming at Travincal where Jah can drop directly, every 3075 runs at average.

    So my answer is you should compare your LK running times with your Travincal times to decide where to go. But, I would suggest rather Travincal unless your LK times are considerably better in comparison.

    Also, farming for single rune is frustration spoiler alert. You may get it in first 100 runs, and maybe you won't get it for thousands and thousands of runs. On RFO I got 5 Cham runes and 0 Ber runes for example, and if I wanted to farm Ber rune, I would be mad etc.
     
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  3. dhaos

    dhaos Diabloii.Net Member

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    Yeah i made 500 travincal runs and nothing my best rune was KO, my rates in lk are better 1 BER per 1500 runs (1500 minutes) and more HR's. But i want know what feels get a jah rune from a monster drop, probably i don't feel nothing :D but maybe should continue with the travincal runs.
     
  4. GooberGrape

    GooberGrape Diabloii.Net Member

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    Also you can run a high TC area like Pit or AT and hope for the best. This has the added bonus of giving many high TC items not only Jah rune. But if you only want runes I agree that Travincal is the best spot in the game.
     
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  5. nulio

    nulio Diabloii.Net Member

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    - Add twillight to ignore list

    Gripphon I think (s)he was to see a Jah rune drop, so cubing seems out of the question.

    @dhaos Best is just running something with an acceptable chance to see a Jah rune drop with a build that you enjoy and is efficient in that area. Travincal, CS, Pits, AT, Pindle, pick one or several and enjoy. As stated before, expecting a specific rune to drop might be frustrating.
     
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  6. hackedagainanda

    hackedagainanda Diabloii.Net Member

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    I've found a few Jah runes from WSK and throne, its fun and exciting so you don't get bored running Pindle.
     
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  7. maareek

    maareek Diabloii.Net Member

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    If you want to specifically see exactly a Jah rune drop the first thing you need to do is recognize that what you want is going to take time and effort (or luck, cause luck conquers all). If you think 500 Travincal runs or 1500 LK runs are at all meaningful in terms of results, then you have entirely the wrong thought process and that won't help you at all. If a Jah should drop once in 3075 Travincal runs, as Gripphon says, then you would still have a 37.5% chance of not having found one after doing 3075 Travincal runs, so expecting to have any results in 1/6th of that time makes no sense.

    You can find a Jah from anything that can drop it, but if you want to have specifically a Jah rune drop then your highest expected value from a target is almost certainly Travincal, and you should be prepared to do a minimum of 5,000 runs with the understanding that it might well take more than 10,000 - potentially much more - if you have a particularly rough run of it.
     
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  8. japanzaman

    japanzaman Diabloii.Net Member

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    Diablo 2 is a funky game- I've had two zod drops but no cham or jah ever. Just kind of how things when you start getting into random chance. Admittedly, I've never run Trav to any real degree, and that is probably where your best bet lies. I'd say 6000k runs at Trav and you'll have a pretty good chance to have picked one up by then. If not, you'll probably have gotten just about everything else.
     
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  9. thefranklin

    thefranklin Diabloii.Net Member

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    Play a lot? You can try the cows if you want to cook some burgers, not . Just make sure you have an alternative for when you get super bored doing Trav or LK. If there is an MFO coming up, join that as the competitions here are great motivators for getting playtime in.
     
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  10. mesmerPT

    mesmerPT Diabloii.Net Member

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    Travincal worked fine for me. Got at least 3 Jah and 3 Cham in my "career". I don't like LK, I find it boring. It's much more fun to bash monsters :p
     
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  11. Thyiad

    Thyiad Moderator Single Player, D2 Assassin, Barbarian

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    No more 'humourous' suggestions please.
     
  12. thefranklin

    thefranklin Diabloii.Net Member

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    Hey, I thought my suggestion of cows was not only humorous, but at the most only mildly unproductive.
     
  13. twillight

    twillight Diabloii.Net Member

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    Let's say you have a very good chance at the killed monster in p8. That means 1:600,000 chance.
    These'd be all special monsters, so let's say you kill them every 10 seconds.
    Than your chance of finding a Jah will statistically happen every 69,5 days if you manage to do this non-stop.

    Now if it is a bossmonster, that's 1:2,270,000 chance. Let's say youkill3 bosses in10seconds in average. Than in every 104days will you find Jah.

    And this is with the "new and improved"chances of 1.13d!

    So stop daydreaming and do something useful instead.

    PS: Jah can't fall from chests at all. Stop trying.
     
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  14. Gripphon

    Gripphon Diabloii.Net Member

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    Obligatory Nagisa's haulpic from summer 2010 MFO with pitnec to serve as motivational pic.

    [​IMG]

    If you want see Jah drop in particular, Travincal is your friend. You just have to make sure you try to do efficient running. For example, you will hardly farm runes if you kill council on p3 with barb in 90 seconds for example. That would be very slow and it would take long to get something decent at average. But, if you aim for something more realistic like 45 seconds running which is good goal to aim for a start, you can farm high runes at good pace.
    If we get back to 3075 runs per Jah rune at average for barb with 55 or 56% item find, with 45 second running you can find Jah at average once in ~39 hours of playing. At the same time you will also farm many things.

    But 39 hours is no childs play. What about being happy to see either Ber or Jah or Cham rune drop? At average it would take ~ 1200-1210 runs to see any of them. With 45 sec running, that is ~15 hours of playing. Much better, right? And Jah is most common of the 3 runes outside LK. Also farming more things will help you keep your sanity and motivation.
     
  15. helvete

    helvete Diabloii.Net Member

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    Jah can drop from chests, just not until act 4 and 5 in hell.
     
  16. Grape

    Grape Diabloii.Net Member

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    +1 for Travincal. And Gripphon knows his stuff.

    No need to make it sound like an impossible task, twilight. (where do you got those numbers btw? Silospen's drop calculator disagrees with you and what's a special monster..?)

    New and improved indeed. I found 13 HRs (Vex-Cham in this case) while leveling my Javazon 93-96 in the Pits (P7/8). So if you get bored of Travincal go run (for example) Pits in high players settings with a char that kills fast. Javazon and Poison Nec are great examples. Load on MF (for finding sets/uniques) and enjoy the drops. Jah may drop if you get lucky while you are finding lots of nice uniques/sets and occasional other HRs.
     
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  17. GooberGrape

    GooberGrape Diabloii.Net Member

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    It's also important to remember that on an individual level, EVERY rune drop is game changing. Every Vex is a HotO, every Ohm is a Call to Arms, every Lo is a Grief or Fortitude. While hunting for your Jah you will surely also find other runes as well. It is a journey of a thousand steps, and you can enjoy every one.
     
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  18. japanzaman

    japanzaman Diabloii.Net Member

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    As others have pointed out, part of the challenge is making sure you are doing things efficiently. For some builds, this may mean getting some rather pricey gear. Some, on the other hand, are not so difficult. Trav barbs are usually pretty doable if you have the Grief/Enigma already. The Javazon in the Pits or Hammerdin in CS can also yield good results with merely "good" gear, but speed is definitely a must in those areas.
     
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  19. XyleneCyanol

    XyleneCyanol Diabloii.Net Member

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    Thumbs up for hunting Ber, Jah or Cham in general, as looking for one specific rune (the same as unique/set) is always frustrating!!! Very nice explanation, Gripphon. Could you please point to me how you did to get that numbers by calculation? I'm very interested.


    And to twillight, getting a high rune in 1.13 is not a daydream at all.

    Here is my very rough calculation, which I did for myself during the rune hunting before I get my Enigma (now I get my Enigma, I probably won't do any dedicated rune hunting in the near future :p). Please correct me if I'm wrong, as I did it in a rush, and I only consider VEX+ rune, and all calculation is simply based on binomial distribution:

    Senario 1: Travincal at p3

    According to the drop calculator, the probability of a rune drop at p3 is:

    Code:
    VEX: 1:125646
    OHM: 1:119592
    LO: 1:179388
    SUR: 1:161980
    BER: 1:242970
    JAH: 1:218813
    CHAM: 1:328219
    Therefore, the probability of getting a VEX - CHAM rune for each council kill is:

    Code:
    council = 1./125646 + \
              1./119592 + \
              1./179388 + \
              1./161980 + \
              1./242970 + \
              1./218813 + \
              1./328219
            = 3.9801335520125044e-05
    There are 11 council members in Travincal, so for each Travincal run, the probability of getting AT LEAST one VEX - CHAM rune is:

    Code:
    trav = 1 - (1 - council) ^ 11 = 0.00043772757307747323
    Senario 2: Lower Kurast at p7/8

    If I get this correct, there are 65536 possible super chest patterns in LK. According to the 1.13 LK pattern thread (the thread is getting too long to check thoroughly, so I just collect the patterns in the very first thread, which was updated at 31 Oct 2010 16:00 GMT). If new patterns exist not in the table, then my calculation will be an underestimation. The number of patterns for each rune is:

    Code:
    VEX patterns: 7
    OHM patterns: 5
    LO patterns: 2
    SUR patterns: 11
    BER patterns: 3
    Therefore, the probability of getting a VEX - BER run for each super chest is:

    Code:
    schest = (7 + 5 + 2 + 11 + 3) / 65536. = 0.00042724609375
    Usually, people roll a map with 6 super chests, so for each LK run, the probability of getting AT LEAST one Vex - BER rune is:

    Code:
    lk = 1 - (1 - schest) ^ 6 = 0.0025607400334143327
    Now, I ask myself: if I perform N number of runs in LK/Trav, what are the chances of getting AT LEAST one VEX+ rune? This is simple:

    Code:
    For Travinal, it is:
    
    1 - (1 - trav) ^ N
    
    For Lower Kurast, it is:
    
    1 - (1 - lk) ^ N
    Now, if I plot the number of runs vs the chance of getting AT LEAST one VEX+ rune, I get the following picture, which is the most important plot to me during my dedicated runs in LK/Trav, because it helps me keep my sanity:

    Now the correct plot is at the end of this post

    As you can see from the plot:

    in LK, after 270.33 runs, you will have 50% chance to get AT LEAST one VEX - BER rune.
    in Trav, after 1583.17 runs, you will have 50% chance to get AT LEAST one VEX - CHAM rune.

    50% is not good enough for you?? Okay let's see 95%:

    in LK, after 1168.37 runs, you will have 95% chance to get AT LEAST one VEX- BER rune.
    in Trav, after 6842.33 runs, you will have 95% chance to get AT LEAST one VEX - CHAM rune.

    This is just based on number of runs, not considering run time at all. If plotting run time vs chance of getting runes, the distance between LK and Trav will be even larger.

    EDIT: Thanks to @Gripphon , my calculation about the Trav run is wrong, the chance of getting at least one VEX - CHAM rune should be:

    Code:
    1 - (1 - 1./125646) * \
         (1 - 1./119592) * \
         (1 - 1./179388) * \
         (1 - 1./161980) * \
         (1 - 1./242970) * \
         (1 - 1./218813) * \
         (1 - 1./328219)
    = 3.980066823261463e-05
    The number is pretty close due to small p.

    EDIT2: Now update the plot with correct Trav rune drop chance according to here: http://diablo2.ingame.de/tips/calcs...ch=113&mode=lod&interface=default&window=true

    HR.jpg
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2015
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  20. Gripphon

    Gripphon Diabloii.Net Member

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    No problem. My method is quite simple since we are dealing with very small drop chances, we can skip doing strict calculations and do approximative ones instead. Difference is very small in the end as I will try to demonstrate.

    Travincal p3, chance to get runes per member
    Cham 1:81756
    Jah 1:54504
    Ber 1:60868

    Doing the strict calculation, chance of getting any of those would mean we seek total chance of no drop simply doing
    (81755*54503*60867)/(81756*54504*60868)
    So chance none of those runes would drop is
    0,9999529929374617075253019152821

    1 - that number and we have probability that any member drops us any of those runes. Or, chance that you get any of those runes per member is 1:21273.3991
    So you have to kill 21273.3991 members at average to have any of Cham/Jah/Ber drop, or you would get any of those runes once per 1933.94 runs. That is for say sorceress.

    Now, doing fastish calculation we simply check expectation of any of those to drop. Let's say we kill 100k members. It is expected we will get 1.223 Cham runes, 1.835 Jah runes and 1.643 Ber runes. In total, we would get ~4.701 of Bers/Jahs/Chams total when we kill 100k council members on p3. In short, if we want only one, 100k/4.701 = 21272.1.

    This means, to get approximative chance of having any of them drop, we simply add their chances together. This means 1/81756 + 1/54504 + 1/60868 = 4.7e^-5, or 1:21273.1 per member. How precise is this seemingly wrong method? Compare it with number above. Quite excellent and is simpler. Why? Cause we are dealing with very small numbers so we can add probabilities together with having very small difference in comparison to real calculating method. If we do similar method for say coin tossing, we will get very wrong results. This works only for small probabilities to avoid all the trouble with all "legit" calculating methods.


    Oh yes, but sorc is not barb. No item find, yes? First you have to know about item find is, it is always p7/8, so we need drop chances of those runes on p7/8 as well as p3/4.
    For p3/4:
    Cham 1:81756
    Jah 1:54504
    Ber 1:60868

    For p7/8:
    Cham 1:73580
    Jah 1:49054
    Ber 1:54781

    Let us assume barb has 55% item find. Now let us calculate with second demonstrated method cause it is obviously very small difference in comparison to real probability, yet it is much simpler to calculate.
    Let's first calculate chance that barb gets any of Cham/Ber/Jah per member including the fact he has 55% item find AND fact item find has drop chances of p7/8 even if we do the running on p3. Sounds complicated? It would be if we do the proper calculating, but we will do shortcut calculating as demonstrated.

    Chance of drop would obviously be adding all the values together, with difference we need to include there is 55% item find in the process. So...

    (1/81756 + 1/54504 + 1/60868 + 0,55/73580 + 0,55/49054 + 0,55/54781) = 7,5734757558187149878475084401747e-5 ==> 1:13204 per member, or 1:1200.4 per Travincal run. Or, once in 1200 runs we might expect to get at least one of Ber/Jah/Cham. I said 1200-1210 cause barb's merc has cold damage on Reaper's, so some corpses will be splashed and chance would be a little worse overall. Nothing major in any case.

    We can also do the calculation with expectations, how many drops are expected after 10k runs etc etc, as demonstrated. Result will be again different, but very very close to this value. All 3 methods offer very similar results, now it is only a question what method someone prefers. I would avoid legit calculating methods for "real" probabilities since those are harder and more complicated to do, and difference would be in eventually 2-3 runs total for expectations. Not worth it. All hail calculating shortcuts.
     
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2015
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