DII Conspiracy (theory)?

Starseed

Diabloii.Net Member
DII Conspiracy (theory)?

Now I don't know about you, but since the day I started playing on the realms (about a year and a half ago), something QUITE vexing has been occurring:

I have a barb. Said barb goes out to, oh.. well, quite frankly you can pick any area between A1-A2 norm, for example. Druid Pelt after druid pelt crosses my path, bows, arrows, scepters but not a single barb helm, short sword.. nada.. so I switch over to my druid and what happens? I'm wading through a sea of swords and barb helms!

I finally manage to obtain Aldurs helm when suddenly all those rare druid pelts I wished for before I aquired said helm, back when I was but a young werewolf begin appearing all over the place.

I'm seriously not sure if it's actually something within the game that determines this (99% doubtful) or if being the self-proclaimed "Worst D2 player ever" has taken on a life of its own.

Has anyone else had this problem in startling abundance? I mean, to this day it still happens to me.. heck, it just happened in the game I finished about 10 minutes ago.

I'm really interested in knowing if this is a wide-spread epidemic or if I just need to quarantine myself to solo games to protect others. :p
 

Faye

Diabloii.Net Member
I'm pretty sure item drops are not dependent on character class. If it were, mfing for a specific item would be infinitely easier.
 

Starseed

Diabloii.Net Member
Yep. I'm pretty much certain it's just me. Still trying to figure out the how and the why, though. :p I mean, if it was one game where "Oh man I couldn't find a decent sword that time" instead of finding none whatsoever repeatedly, I guess I might have a more rational answer than severely bad luck. o_O
 

spawnosatan

Diabloii.Net Member
You know, I find it very interesting that I'm not the only one that has observed this phenomenon. It might be just psychology and our minds thinking this is happening but I have specifically noticed that when I play certain chars that only large quantities of certain items drop. It is never or rarely the same item class as the char i'm playing. I think it's too coincidental that multiple people have noticed this and all are just imagining something.
 

GIR

Banned
It's not just you. I play as a Wind Druid. I find Barbarian helm after Barbarian helm. Any pelts that dropped are either cracked/damaged, or have no mods to them.

Literally the only useful one I've found is a +3 to Hurricane, +20 to Life, 5% Fire Resist.
 

Starseed

Diabloii.Net Member
Well, it's certainly a HUGE relief to know I'm not the only one. But even then, the most aggravating question is why? Is it really just mind over matter or something else?

I was lvling my Pally in A1 earlier and literally, between A1-A5 I saw TWO scepters aside from the one I purchased from Charsi. I know that if I switched over to my Druid I would have found more of them than I would know what to do with simply from repeated occurrances of this same thing in the past.

Hmm.. any theories? :p
 

Jarulf

Diabloii.Net Member
Starseed said:
Well, it's certainly a HUGE relief to know I'm not the only one. But even then, the most aggravating question is why? Is it really just mind over matter or something else?
Why? Because it is random. Randomness is NOT perfect even distribution. In fact, for most random events, you WILL see and you SHOULD see lumps of similar results. I would be much more concerned if no one saw such effects as you described since that would be an indication of non randomness.
 

sutra

Diabloii.Net Member
Starseed said:
...example. Druid Pelt after druid pelt crosses my path, bows, arrows, scepters but not a single barb helm, short sword.. nada.. so I switch over to my druid and what happens? I'm wading through a sea of swords and barb helms!
That kind of reminds me when i am in traffic. I'm stuck in the left lane and the right one is moving.... i switch to the right... and now i'm stuck and all the left cars are passing me by... so i switch again.... and so on and so on......
 

chaka

Diabloii.Net Member
sutra said:
That kind of reminds me when i am in traffic. I'm stuck in the left lane and the right one is moving.... i switch to the right... and now i'm stuck and all the left cars are passing me by... so i switch again.... and so on and so on......
my sorc constantly finds assassin items. go figure.
 

Wolv

Diabloii.Net Member
sutra said:
That kind of reminds me when i am in traffic. I'm stuck in the left lane and the right one is moving.... i switch to the right... and now i'm stuck and all the left cars are passing me by... so i switch again.... and so on and so on......

LOL! Great analogy!
 

Usufruct

Diabloii.Net Member
Item type is determined at the time of monster death. It is random within the realm of all item types that monster can drop.
 

krmetal

Diabloii.Net Member
I had been wondering about this also. I started noticeing that I was always having to drop items from one character to a different one, almost everyday. The paticular character never finds anything that they need or can use, its always something for one of the others. :flip:
 

discoboomer

Diabloii.Net Member
its all psychology. Drops are on a random ratio reinforcement rate. That is the schedule which incites superstition the best.

its the same at a slot machine. You might think a certain type of slot can give you more money...when in fact they can, but it is miniscule and usually people are wrong...the difference is between 6%-9% payoff.

anyways....its just coincidence. If you really wanna figure it out record all your drops over a period of time, then record with another character.
 

skihard

Banned
This is how the drops work in a very simple way. Lets say there are only 10 items in the game. There are 5 Characters (yes I know there are more) that can be played. Of the 10 items only 2 are useful to a Character, that leaves 8 items that a Character does not want so as you play and if the drop odds work out perfect only 1 in five drops will be of use to Character 1 but it is possible that you have 8 drops before one of the 2 items of use fall. Increase the number of items to 1000 and you now have 200 items of use to Character 1 or the possibility of 800 items dropping before 1 item of use drops. This is of course a worse case and based on every item having the same chance to drop, but you can see that many items can drop before the one you want.
 

Nevre

Diabloii.Net Member
Psychology

It is a well know phenomenon in psychology that information that you collect will be biased in a number of ways

1. You will look for information which confirms your theory
2. You will ignore and forget information which disproves your theory.

Given these two things, and the reinforcement program as mentioned above, you will likely come up with this theory and then it will confirm itself forever more, whether it is true or not (which I think we can generally agree given the game code it probably isnt).

The scary things about this game is the reinforcement schedule. It is the same as used in gambling. If you only get what you want part of the time you become addicted.
Nasty.
 

Aegon

Diabloii.Net Member
I got so sick of finding Paladin-only gear, I made one. And you know what? No more Paladin gear! Mission accomplished! :lol:
 

Lord Chaos

Diabloii.Net Member
skihard said:
This is how the drops work in a very simple way. Lets say there are only 10 items in the game. There are 5 Characters (yes I know there are more) that can be played. Of the 10 items only 2 are useful to a Character, that leaves 8 items that a Character does not want so as you play and if the drop odds work out perfect only 1 in five drops will be of use to Character 1 but it is possible that you have 8 drops before one of the 2 items of use fall. Increase the number of items to 1000 and you now have 200 items of use to Character 1 or the possibility of 800 items dropping before 1 item of use drops. This is of course a worse case and based on every item having the same chance to drop, but you can see that many items can drop before the one you want.
You're right, it is just how we see things. Falls much in line with my explaination as to why paranormal experiences for the most part are simple statistics as well as I posted in an earlier thread.
 

Nevre

Diabloii.Net Member
Aegon said:
I got so sick of finding Paladin-only gear, I made one. And you know what? No more Paladin gear! Mission accomplished! :lol:
A wonderful application of Murphies Law.

I tried a similar thing recently, and of couse it worked!
The weather was half-way raining, a few drops here and there and I was going for a long walk and had no coat or umbrella.
I knew that if I didn't buy an unbrella it would definately rain harder, and that if I did buy one it would stop raining making my purchase useless. I decided to buy one, and, viola! it stopped raining.


Maybe Blizzard has implemented something server side in an effort to foster co-operation/sharing and trading?
 
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