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Countess no dropping?

Discussion in 'Theorycrafting and Statistics' started by IntellectSucks, May 27, 2008.

  1. IntellectSucks

    IntellectSucks IncGamers Member

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    Countess no dropping?

    I had the countess no drop on me for the first time. I didn't even know it was possible. Anyone else have bad experiences with this?
     
  2. ProfessionalBerg

    ProfessionalBerg IncGamers Member

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    Re: Countess no dropping?

    Andariel dropped 0 for me once (not that it's something unheard of from her). I had some VERY bad drops from Countess (like an El and 2k gold), but I don't recall a no-drop.
     
  3. crawlingdeadman

    crawlingdeadman IncGamers Member

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    Re: Countess no dropping?

    i've had one no drop... i was very surprised as i didnt think she could ever. i dont run her much, but only one in quite a few attempts. must be very low chance for it.
     
  4. thegiantturtle

    thegiantturtle IncGamers Member

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    Re: Countess no dropping?

    Countess drop has two parts. The 5 pick item drop has a no drop chance of 19/68 in a one player game and the 3 pick rune drop has a no drop chance of 5/20 in any game.

    A no drop (that didn't involve bad tiles) would occur 309512375/11631468544000 = .0027% of the time. Yowza. You can assume that countess tried to drop on a tile that was not allowed to drop items.
     
  5. ProfessionalBerg

    ProfessionalBerg IncGamers Member

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    Re: Countess no dropping?

    Theoretically, this'd mean the chance for a no-drop is

    1/4*19/68 = ~7%.



     
  6. thegiantturtle

    thegiantturtle IncGamers Member

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    Re: Countess no dropping?

    5/20 and 19/68 are for each pick:

    (19/68)^5 * (5/20)^3
     
  7. ProfessionalBerg

    ProfessionalBerg IncGamers Member

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    Re: Countess no dropping?

    Then that's a really small number...

    0,00000266 = 0,00266% = 2,66 promille... Woah.
     
  8. crawlingdeadman

    crawlingdeadman IncGamers Member

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    Re: Countess no dropping?

    too bad i'm never lucky in a good way...
     
  9. ThomasJohnsen

    ThomasJohnsen IncGamers Member

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    Re: Countess no dropping?

    Fortunately there is a club for that :smiley:.

    I am the president :soapbox:.



     
  10. zhadoom

    zhadoom IncGamers Member

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    Re: Countess no dropping?

    Erm... u have multiple errors:
    0,00000266 = 0,000266% = 0,00266 promille

    But in the first place:
    (19/68)^5 * (5/20)^3 = 0.0218 * 0.0156 = 0.00034

    further:
    0.00034 = 0.034% = 0.34 promille = 344ppm

    So in one million runs it occurs 344 times... in other words: once every ~3k runs

    greets,
    zha


     
  11. thegiantturtle

    thegiantturtle IncGamers Member

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    Re: Countess no dropping?

    You missed (19/68)^2. If you were doing it without the correct solution present, you'd have gotten partial credit.



     
  12. ProfessionalBerg

    ProfessionalBerg IncGamers Member

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    Re: Countess no dropping?

    Um, yes, I did do it a bit wrong, I divided by 1000 for both percent and promille. It should have been by 100 for percent, 10 for promille (I mistook it for "per million", when it's actually French for "per thousand". Goddamn my French classes), and then by another 1000 for parts per million. So it's:

    0,00000266 = 0,000266% = 0,00266 promille = 2,66 ppm, like you said. However, your calculations are off too:

    [​IMG]

    The evalf stands for converting the fraction to a decimal number.



     
  13. FattyMcGee

    FattyMcGee IncGamers Member

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    Re: Countess no dropping?

    I've had no drops occur multiple times while farming mephisto - well over a dozen times in the years I've been playing. Assuming no bad tiles (most times it happened I killed him in the middle of the flat area, just below where he spawns), what is the probability of this happening?

    -f
     

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