Latest Diablo 3 News
DiabloWiki Updates
Support the site! Become a Diablo: IncGamers PAL - Remove ads and more!

Concerning Key Running Clusters

Discussion in 'Theorycrafting and Statistics' started by Thorgaard, Apr 16, 2008.

  1. Thorgaard

    Thorgaard IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2007
    Messages:
    29
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    20
    Concerning Key Running Clusters

    Just thought i'd make a post and ask you guys opinions about key running. I do most of my running in solo games and seem to notice a couple things. First, my key running runs in massive spurts. I'll make 10 games with my sorc, run both countess and summoner and in those 10 games come away with like 6-8 keys for the 10 runs. Then, i'll have a cluster where i don't get a key one for 20-30 games.
    Also it seems to me that countess is usually who i can count on to drop me a key if i had to bet on the outcome where as the summoner rarely gives me keys no matter how many times i run him. It's like Countess drops me 5-8 keys to every 1 of the summoner when i run them both together in games. I don't do Nilithak yet, i just trade for D keys. Anyone else notice or have similar drop patterns with their keys? I'm well aware of the odds that each have to drop, but it just seems all or nothing for me depending on the day. Thoughts?
     
  2. saellison

    saellison IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2006
    Messages:
    206
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    57
    Re: Concerning Key Running Clusters

    I tend to have the same sort of spurts. Like a week ago for about a 5 day period it seemed like very other game I made I got a Tkey. Since that spurt I don't really seem to get any keys that often. I probably have gotten more D keys than H keys however. Are Dkeys that hard for people to run? It seems to me D keys should be the easiest to get since you can get to Nihl in like 2 seconds once you realize there are only 3 different ways the map spawns. Tkeys are terrible, teleporting through 5 levels of the tower is annoying.
     
  3. helvete

    helvete IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2004
    Messages:
    6,805
    Likes Received:
    907
    Trophy Points:
    534
    Re: Concerning Key Running Clusters

    It's the nature of statistics. If keys dropped extremely regularly, like once every 13th game, then THAT would be strange.
     
  4. carnivore

    carnivore IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Aug 2, 2005
    Messages:
    506
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    120
    Re: Concerning Key Running Clusters

    i agree. Dkeys are easiest if you have a char that can do nihl fast and save.
    Tkeys are annoying: long way, most monsters are easy, so i kill all of them on my way and there is always a chance for an quite dangerous bosspack of archers which kills my merc.
    Hkeys are probably the easiest. i even find teleporting each way and back faster than using a tp and the wp through town. the chests are a nice bonus.

    key chances vary slightly for all three, afaik, but not much.


    two other things, you have to consider when looking at chances in a computer game:
    1. there is nothing as a random number. those are calculated out of a given seed-value (most often the current time in milli seconds). this can have an effect on the outcome, not very likely in d2 though, because you dont do several key-runs in the same ms.

    2. nothing is as it seems. rewardless runs will feel longer and more than those with a regular rewarding drop, key in this case. on the other hand, you wont remember those few runs without keys as easily, when you find one every 4 games (which would be about average if you run for all three in one game).



     
  5. Davio

    Davio IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2008
    Messages:
    320
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    77
    Re: Concerning Key Running Clusters

    Your memory is playing tricks with you!

    As said before, you don't remember if a key dropped once every 5 games for 20 games, because that's what you expect!!!

    You only remember things that are out of the ordinary, like an abundance or an absence of keys.
     
  6. rottenapple

    rottenapple IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2008
    Messages:
    18
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    1
    Re: Concerning Key Running Clusters

    Its weird, i know. for some reason i never get any tkeys after like 30 runs but i get an hkey nearly every run. Dkeys are kind of in between the two. but i get the most multi drops from nhiltk.
     
  7. mephiztophelez

    mephiztophelez IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2006
    Messages:
    4,296
    Likes Received:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    166
    Re: Concerning Key Running Clusters

    that would actually be a fairly statistically accurate drop rate given the odds on getting a key.....

    lifted from my Nihlathak 1.0.1 guide.



     
  8. aishilee

    aishilee IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2007
    Messages:
    777
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    166
    Re: Concerning Key Running Clusters

    Countess is the most tedious one i felt. 5 levels + need to find that tower. haha.
    its been days now, no keys from her yet, same goes to summoner, a handful of Dkeys though.
     
  9. pandamao

    pandamao IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2008
    Messages:
    20
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    5
    Re: Concerning Key Running Clusters

    Wow, this is exactly the question I was going to ask. I have made about 40-50 games for countess but didn't get any key... I think I'm just unlucky but I got 3 Hkeys from summoners during these games
     
  10. mephiztophelez

    mephiztophelez IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2006
    Messages:
    4,296
    Likes Received:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    166
    Re: Concerning Key Running Clusters

    which is why i don't bother to run countess.

    Nihlathak FTW! ez and quick to get too, first time, every time.



     
  11. UberB

    UberB IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2007
    Messages:
    1,077
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    255
    Re: Concerning Key Running Clusters

    I concur. Once you've gotten the hang of it, he's just as easy as the other two areas. The trick is to know the limits of your character and quit out if it's too hard.
     
  12. XIJAH

    XIJAH IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2008
    Messages:
    74
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    71
    Re: Concerning Key Running Clusters

    i dont bother with t/h keys.. too much teleing around/ summoner doesnt seem to drop much for me at all.. but if everyone didnt i wouldnt have anyone to trde my d keys to.. suits me fine that people tade 2 for 1d in Us West :rolleyes: D keys drop the most for me i find..

    Frenzy barb was my first d key runner and boy he could RUN. i was too poor for nigma at that stage.. i couldnt work out why people had such trouble running for D's just get down there howl ur head off till Nith is on his own then 2-3 seconds hes dead.. no CE and hes easy as..

    i think at the time i had a free arreats/ dracs from a mate lightsabre and a good old azurewrath for the undead. too bad he has turned to a mule now..
     
  13. daneBO

    daneBO IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2008
    Messages:
    95
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    33
    Re: Concerning Key Running Clusters

    As a frenzy barb w/ enigma I find that Nith is by far the easiest and quickest. I have been keeping a spreadsheet that tracks each run. I do all 3 and add Duriel for the drops.

    I get killed by the summoner once about every 10-12 times. Usually the combination of physical resistant ghosts and goatmen (?) kill me when I don't get to the summoner fast enough. I am so close I hate to save and exit and it usually costs me dearly.

    Looking over my spreadsheet I can tell you that my key drops come in bunches. I know common sense says otherwise, but my numbers don't lie. I average about 5-6 keys for every 20 runs (60 drops) and I usually run about 8 times with nothing, get a few drops, then run into the dry spell again.

    BTW, I switch out a natures peace ring for my 20mf on the Nith runs and it seems to make a huge difference with the drops. I get a lot of blues but few rares.
     
  14. korialstraz

    korialstraz IncGamers Site Pal

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2007
    Messages:
    5,901
    Likes Received:
    11
    Trophy Points:
    166
    Re: Concerning Key Running Clusters

    I have had almost no T or D keys for ages now. Even in 16 full baal games I didn't get a single D key. Been getting H keys like no tomorrow, and had about 16 of em with only 2 T and 4 or so D :shocked:
     
  15. Jaquiezz

    Jaquiezz IncGamers Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2007
    Messages:
    281
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    57
    Re: Concerning Key Running Clusters

    Ah, to not understand statistics.

    Your %chance to get no keys over a set amount of runs is the same as getting a key every run over the same amount of runs, or getting a key every other run or getting a key however often you statistically should (1/14 runs, 1/11 runs etc.).

    Put another way: You have a 14 sided die. I don't know how, but you do, and every face is the same size, yadda yadda yadda. Now, rolling a 1 is the same as getting a T key, while 2-14 mean no key. Rolling 5 straight 1's is as statistically probable as rolling 1,2,3,4,5 or straight 5's, or any other combo of numbers. Why? The die doesn't care what you just rolled, or how many T-keys you have. You have a 1 in 14 chance of getting a T-key no matter how bad/good your luck is. Its unlikely you will get straight 1's, but no more/less likely you will get any other combos of numbers.

    Hope this look into mathematical reasoning give you a new look at your luck/unluck.
     

Share This Page