China to economically surpass US in 10 years?

Dirty_Zulu

Diabloii.Net Member
China to economically surpass US in 10 years?

Latest issue of National says "China will surpass the United States as the world's largest economy in 10 years...".

I am skeptical on this because of the damage done by one child policy. I know a couple in China who each has a mother and father. And each of their parent has 6 surviving parents. So basically two kids has to support 4 parents and 6 grandparents.
 

AeroJonesy

Diabloii.Net Member
Re: China to economically surpass US in 10 years?

That doesn't mean they won't have a large economy, though. China has 4 times the population of the United States, it's a wonder they don't already have the largest economy.
 

toader

Banned
Re: China to economically surpass US in 10 years?

They will surpass America when we all get our 600 dollar stimulus checks, and go spend them on Chinese products.
 

LouisLeGros

Diabloii.Net Member
Re: China to economically surpass US in 10 years?

We sell our raw resources to china, they process them and then sell em back to us using cheap labor and then large mark ups. It is as if we were trying to bolster their economy and have been doing so for years.
 

evild2player

Diabloii.Net Member
Re: China to economically surpass US in 10 years?

Hey China already surpassed Germany awhile back, I wouldn't be surprised.

@OP: I dunno how someone can have 6 surviving parents.
 

garublador

Diabloii.Net Member
Re: China to economically surpass US in 10 years?

@OP: I dunno how someone can have 6 surviving parents.
It wasn't expressed very coherently, but if a couple both have both of their sets of parents (2 for the wife, 2 for the husband) and each of them have one grandparent (1 for the wife and 1 for the husband) then that would be 6 people assuming neither the husband nor wife had any siblings. Granted you don't normally end up taking care of your grandparents while you still have your parents but that part was left out of the orignial post.



 

krischan

Europe Trade Moderator
Re: China to economically surpass US in 10 years?

Hey China already surpassed Germany awhile back, I wouldn't be surprised.

@OP: I dunno how someone can have 6 surviving parents.
They still failed to replace Germany as the country with the biggest foreign trade surplus in the world :grin:... this year. Next year they will most probably be the #1 worldwide with respect to that, however.

Regarding the 1 child policy: AFAIK they have it for at least 20 years already, but their population still grew a lot during that time - from 1 billion to 1.3 billion IIRC.



 

Anakha1

Banned
Re: China to economically surpass US in 10 years?

I seem the recall reading somewhere that there's more U.S. money in China than in the U.S. That would mean the conflict some people think is coming between the two nations won't happen as all China has to do is call in the U.S.'s debts to destroy them.
 

LouisLeGros

Diabloii.Net Member
Re: China to economically surpass US in 10 years?

oh ya, how could I forget to mention the billions of dollars (probably trillions) we have borrowed from China.
 
Re: China to economically surpass US in 10 years?

If they got in a conflict with us. . . we would stop buying their goods which would tank them. . . just as calling in our debt to them would tank us and then them.
 

LunarSolaris

Diabloii.Net Member
Re: China to economically surpass US in 10 years?

IIRC the population of China is somewhere around 1.3 (maybe 1.4 billion) and the population of the U.S. hit 400 million some time back, no? Or am I off on those numbers?

It stands to reason the U.S. can't remain perched on top of the world economy forever. The U.S. is most certainly in an economic downturn at the present time.
 

Dirty_Zulu

Diabloii.Net Member
Re: China to economically surpass US in 10 years?

IIRC the population of China is somewhere around 1.3 (maybe 1.4 billion) and the population of the U.S. hit 400 million some time back, no? Or am I off on those numbers?
China is 1.3bil. US is 300mil. India is 1.07bil.

India is predicted to surpass China by 2025 and reach 2 billions.



 

Dondrei

Diabloii.Net Member
Re: China to economically surpass US in 10 years?

Still, you couldn't pay me enough to live in China.

China is 1.3bil. US is 300mil. India is 1.07bil.

India is predicted to surpass China by 2025 and reach 2 billions.
Guess the one child policy works.



 

krischan

Europe Trade Moderator
Re: China to economically surpass US in 10 years?

If they got in a conflict with us. . . we would stop buying their goods which would tank them. . . just as calling in our debt to them would tank us and then them.
That would be shooting into your own knee. Just take a look at e.g. the components of your computer or generally all electronic equipment you have. If the US boycots China, it will (1) be boycotted by other countries as well and (2) prices for a lot of things will explode. The US actually benefits from low prices there. And (3), if the US starts an economic war against China, they could sell their >1 trillion US dollars of cash reserves and the US dollar will collapse.

Of course, China will suffer a lot from such a reaction as well, as they bound their currency to the dollar, but they can lift that binding and apart from that, they can surely live better with it than the US (and their population can probably stand harder times than softened wimps like us). Just announcing that will cause a massive loss for the US dollar. What's worse, other countries might stop accepting the US dollar for paying bills (which has already started at some extent). The massive foreign trade deficit of the US can only work as long as foreign people still want to have the fresh money from their press (bank notes, bonds, whatever). That won't be the case anymore if there are 1 trillion US dollars to be expected on the market soon which nobody wants to have. That will lead to a massive desaster for the US economy and the population.



 

Dondrei

Diabloii.Net Member
Re: China to economically surpass US in 10 years?

You know, maybe we should start measuring economic performance per capita.
 
Re: China to economically surpass US in 10 years?

That would be shooting into your own knee. Just take a look at e.g. the components of your computer or generally all electronic equipment you have. If the US boycots China, it will (1) be boycotted by other countries as well and (2) prices for a lot of things will explode. The US actually benefits from low prices there. And (3), if the US starts an economic war against China, they could sell their >1 trillion US dollars of cash reserves and the US dollar will collapse.

Of course, China will suffer a lot from such a reaction as well, as they bound their currency to the dollar, but they can lift that binding and apart from that, they can surely live better with it than the US (and their population can probably stand harder times than softened wimps like us). Just announcing that will cause a massive loss for the US dollar. What's worse, other countries might stop accepting the US dollar for paying bills (which has already started at some extent). The massive foreign trade deficit of the US can only work as long as foreign people still want to have the fresh money from their press (bank notes, bonds, whatever). That won't be the case anymore if there are 1 trillion US dollars to be expected on the market soon which nobody wants to have. That will lead to a massive desaster for the US economy and the population.

I meant if they flew over and bombed us and we went to all out war against them. Maybe not WWIII, but an actual war.

China could possibly have food shortages if they can't buy from the US, plus Americans have a history of really pulling together when we know who the enemy is for certain. Right after 9/11 we were ready to kill anybody we had to, do anything needed, it wasn't until later that people got sick and tired of it because of lies or misinformation whatever you want to call them.



 
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