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Chance hell countess drops um+?

Discussion in 'Theorycrafting and Statistics' started by Ohmn, Mar 14, 2004.

  1. Ohmn

    Ohmn IncGamers Member

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    Chance hell countess drops um+?

    I was just wondering if anyone knows what the chances are for hell countess to drop a good rune (for my purposes um+). I beleive she can drop up to a Lo but what are the chances she will drop a good rune?
     
  2. Shadow_247

    Shadow_247 IncGamers Member

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    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Um 1:635
    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Mal 1:739
    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Ist 1:1109

    * End of Countess Special Rune Drop *

    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Gul 1:122049
    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Vex 1:183073
    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Ohm 1:213464
    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Lo 1:320196

    You can really see the odds spike when her special rune drop reaches the end. The above odds assume you are in a one player game.
     
  3. Ohmn

    Ohmn IncGamers Member

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    Wow the detail is great :) Do you have a link that gives the possibilties for the runes dol-pul? Be very interested in that :) Thanks again

    Oh for anyone who cares I calculated (rounding) the chances of getting an um, mal and ist if one did 400 hell countess rune runs;

    Um ~48%
    Mal ~ 43%
    Ist ~ 30%

    If you did 15 a day that would be 27 days worth of rune runs. It does seem your time might be better spent rushing to night and hell forge.
     
  4. Shadow_247

    Shadow_247 IncGamers Member

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    No, sorry, I do not. But, I will be glad to post them for you!

    Again all in one player games.

    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Dol 1:42
    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Hel 1:54
    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Io 1:81
    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Lum 1:107
    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Ko 1:160
    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Fal 1:212
    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Lem 1:318
    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Pul 1:423

    Just so you get an idea of the difference between 1 player games and 8 player games, look at this.

    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Dol in 1 player game 1:42
    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Dol in 8 player game 1:31

    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Um in 1 player game 1:635
    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Um in 8 player game 1:476

    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Ist in 1 player game 1:1109
    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Ist in 8 player game 1:831

    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Lo in 1 player game 1:320196
    Odds of Hell Countess dropping Lo in 8 player game 1:229394

    The odds are not reduced by half or anything, but it's a visible change. Also, you may have figured this out, but after you get past the countess' special rune drop, she no longer has the best odds. She gets bumped down to below the 5 act bosses, hephasto, the summoner, izual and nihlathak.
     
  5. Ohmn

    Ohmn IncGamers Member

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    The chances you have listed are they after the special rune drop or are these the special rune drop chances? I assume by special rune drop you are talking about the countess quest. Becuase if they are the special rune drop rates and then they are reduced for additional countess runs then the odds get very poor indeed. Once again thanks for all the info :)
     
  6. Shadow_247

    Shadow_247 IncGamers Member

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    The Countess, as you may know, has a special, guaranteed rune drop. She is guaranteed to drop at least one rune each time you kill her. It is not her quest drop. This drop increases the chance to drop runes, thereby increasing her chance to drop the higher runes. Her special rune drop applies to runes up to Ist in hell. All of the odds that I listed for Ist and below took notice of her special rune drop. You can see the three runes above Ist - Gul, Vex and Lo - have radically worse odds.
     
  7. leprican

    leprican IncGamers Member

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    so whats the best place to run, the countess or hephasto, where u can find the best runes?
     
  8. Ohmn

    Ohmn IncGamers Member

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    Thank you for your patience in explaining this :) I want to try a probablility question out to make sure I understand.

    The chances of a pul dropping are 1 in 423 or about .24 %. She also has a tendecy (from my experience) to drop 2 runs per run. Sometimes she can drop 3 and sometimes 0 but from my experience the average is close to 2. For simplicity with the probability problem lets use 2. However if I am wrong in this assumption I dont mind being corrected ;)

    In 200 runs @ 2 runes/run that is 400 total chances to get a pul. To calculate the odds of actually getting one you have this equation;

    [.9976 (percent chance of not getting one expressed in decimal)] ^ 400=.382 or for simplicity .38. So there is a 38% chance in 400 chances a pul will not turn up at all and thus a 62% chance of getting one.

    If I understand what you mean by special drop rate this probability is roughly accurate becuase it deals with the pul rune which falls under her special drop rate. Thanks again for the help :)
     
  9. Shadow_247

    Shadow_247 IncGamers Member

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    Ohmn.
    The odds I posted have already been considered for her number of rune drops per kill, and all the other fineries. Those odds are per kill. Meaning, you should get one pul rune in 423 kills of the countess. They are already worked to the simplest form, for your convenience ;)

    leprican.
    Hell countess is best for high runes between 1-24 (El-Ist), and Hephasto is better, not the best, but better than the countess for runes above Ist.
     
  10. GOJ_hralti

    GOJ_hralti IncGamers Member

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    hate to burst your bubble but it doesn't matter if your in a full game or not go look on battle.net it does not increase your chances on getting a higher rune or a lower rune in 8 player games. I have looked into this many times and its not true. thanks!
     
  11. Shade

    Shade IncGamers Member

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    Indeed... however, it will affect the no-drop chance, thus indirectly making it more likely that a rune (high or otherwise) will drop :)
     
  12. Ohmn

    Ohmn IncGamers Member

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    Wow nice work :) One more question please. When you say "you should get one pul rune in 423 kills of the countess" what probability goes with "should". Is it 50%, 75% 80%, 90%?
     
  13. sangfagel

    sangfagel IncGamers Member

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    It wasn´t a "bubble". In big games countess has bigger chance to drop regular items instead of runes --> less rune drops.
     
  14. sangfagel

    sangfagel IncGamers Member

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    Excelent work - Thank you!
    Anyway... If you don´t think that Hephasto is best for higher runes - who is?
     
  15. SDC Pred

    SDC Pred IncGamers Member

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    Just kill many, many, many high level monsters in Area lvl 81+ places like the Pit, Worldstone Keep, etc. Quantity of kills is better than quality in the case of runes. Would you rather kill the countess once when you can kill 200 monsters each with a tenth of the countess rune drop rate(not being exact). Besides, the monsters can also drop good items as well, which can also net you runes through trading.
     
  16. sangfagel

    sangfagel IncGamers Member

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    Thx for you kindness but it wasn´t exactly this information I was looking for.
    I made some searching by my own under time and got following results for Lo rune:
    Andariel (Quest) - 1:139958
    Baal - 1:273172
    Hephasto The Armorer - 1:286830
    I used Drop-Calculator v0.96 beta http://diablo2.ingame.de/tips/calcs...ch=110&mode=lod&interface=default&window=true (I suppose that Shadow_247 uses it too) I am not sure though if these numbers are still accurate in the recent version of LoD.
     
  17. Thrugg

    Thrugg IncGamers Member

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    Erm... I would be hesitant to trust any online calculator when it comes to the Countess.

    A few calculators are updated to 1.10 data.
    A small number of those are aware that monster TCs change with their mlvl which in turn changes with the area they are found in.
    An even smaller number gets all the combining of multiple drop paths correct.

    But absolutely none of them get the Countess right, that I have seen. Her TC is extremely complicated.

    You do not have a better chance of her dropping a given rune with more players than you do at players 1. This is because there is a 6 drop limit for all monsters, and the Countess drops her non-rune items before she drops her runes. The better odds displayed above would be if she could drop all 8 of her potential drops, but she can't and the ones she loses first are the runes.

    Ohmn, the way you were looking at the problem is valid. If there is a p chance of a rune dropping per kill, then you expect one every 1/p kills, but to get the chance of one dropping in x kills you should use (1-(1-p)^x), as you were.

    The Countess actually drops around 1.89 runes per kill in single player games.

    BTW Hell Andariel does indeed have the best chance of dropping a Lo rune (due largely to her 6 drops and the quest drop bug), although this is her highest rune.
     
  18. Stormie

    Stormie IncGamers Member

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    I got ~1.85.

    My calculations:

    Normal item drop: 5 picks, 19/67 no drop chance, 48/67 chance of an item

    Chance of getting 5 items (and thus limited to 1 rune) : 18.872619%
    Chance of getting 4 items (and thus limited to 2 runes) : 37.3520585%
    Chance of getting 0-3 items (and thus no rune limit) : 43.7753224%

    Rune drop: 3 picks, 5/20 no drop chance, 15/20 chance of a rune

    Average runes per drop with no limit : 2.25
    Average runes per drop with limit of 2 : 1.828125
    Average runes per drop with limit of 1 : 0.984375

    So, grand total rune average =
    (0.18872619 * 0.984375) + (0.373520585 * 1.828125) + (0.437753224 * 2.25)
    = 1.853564417

    ..but now we're getting into truly "sad bastard" realms of number-crunching. :)
     
  19. Thrugg

    Thrugg IncGamers Member

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    She drops 1.85 runes on average through her rune drop.
    She drops a minute but non-trivial number of runes through her item drop too though.

    1/16 Items will be Good
    14/130 Goods will be Runes

    Given her average number of items dropped of about 3.3, that adds on another 0.025 runes from there. Should have been 1.**, not 1.89. I think I was remembering you ended up rounding up, and did it twice :rolleyes:
     
  20. ayoko

    ayoko IncGamers Member

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    What about Hell Travincial? There are a bunch of them guys so you get multiple drops. Can't they drop up to Cham? They are dangerous but very quick to find.
     

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