are keys becoming harder to find???

[Mr.Grimmy]

are keys becoming harder to find???

Hi, hopefully this is the right place for this, so here goes.

I am just curious about other peoples key running experiences. The first few days I was getting keys at about 1:13, which seems to agree with the numbers posted here. However between yesterday and today i have completed 65 runs killing all three bosses and have found a whopping 3 keys

by my calculations that should be more like 15-16 keys. Am i just unlucky? Is my keyrunner in a funk?? Or is there a possibility that the drop frequency for keys is being turned down? (I am not familiar with the drop mechanics so bear with my noobishness)

Any input would be appreciated.

 

[Mr.Grimmy]

Just an update:

another 15 runs (45 bosses killed) 1 key of hate

 

[IstinkTherefourIAM]

well i dont believe in 1/34 chances of dropping a key as everyone posted here. can someone show me the proof of 1/34 chance of key drop? and how did they come up with 1/34 key drop rates.

 

[Mr.Grimmy]

I believe that the chance to drop is 1/34 per item that each boss drops. each boss can drop 5 items i think, but there is also a chance to drop nothing. I believe that RTB worked it out to be about 1 in 12-13 overall for single player drops. At lease that is what I remember reading, and RTB knows his stuff.

I was just wondering if there was a way the drops for keys could be modified server side or something.

I have just done another 10 runs (30 bosses killed) and no keys. That is 90 runs total (270 bosses killed) and only 4 keys, where there should be more like 20-22. I can understand that things are random and it may take many runs for the odds to kick in but........ I'm starting to lose hope of finishing this set of keys

well i dont believe in 1/34 chances of dropping a key as everyone posted here. can someone show me the proof of 1/34 chance of key drop? and how did they come up with 1/34 key drop rates.

 

[HandofElysium]

I think it's very random I was able to get 2 keys in just one run.

 

[xioxio]

I think it's very random I was able to get 2 keys in just one run.

Same. Got 2 keys of Terror in one countess run.

BUT, lately key drops have been a bit slow. They used to drop for me quite often.

 

[FodderCannoned]

you get multiple shots of a 1/56 chance, i think RTB said it was 5 chances, so the actual odds are 5/56 total, so if you were really lucky you could get lots of keys. It works out to about a 8-10% chance, because the 1/56 was for only the summoner I believe, because the countess, nithalek, and summoner all drop the keys at slightly different odds.
For every cold stretch that you experience there will be a hot stretch also if you run for the keys long enough.

 

[RTB]

you get multiple shots of a 1/56 chance, i think RTB said it was 5 chances, so the actual odds are 5/56 total, so if you were really lucky you could get lots of keys. It works out to about a 8-10% chance, because the 1/56 was for only the summoner I believe, because the countess, nithalek, and summoner all drop the keys at slightly different odds.
For every cold stretch that you experience there will be a hot stretch also if you run for the keys long enough.

That's not how it works I'm afraid. You'd need to calculate the chance for 1,2,3,4,5 keys seperatly, then add 'em up, if you want to do it the long way.

The easier way is using a graphical calculator: 1-binompdf(5, 1/56, 0), which is an 8.6% chance for 1 - 5 keys in a drop.

 

[Alywin]

Regarding the "5 chances", does that mean the same as no. of drops of Countess? If yes, so games with more players will reduce the chance of no drops and hence increase chance for key drops?

 

[RTB]

Yes, but the countess has an added drop of 3 more potential rune drops. The maximum amount of items a monster can drop is 6.

 

[Evrae Altana]

Am i just unlucky? Is my keyrunner in a funk?? Or is there a possibility that the drop frequency for keys is being turned down? (I am not familiar with the drop mechanics so bear with my noobishness)

I don't think keys are becoming harder to find. I've been finding the same amount of keys since 1.11 was out. I'd say you just hit a bit of a luck ditch.