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Alternate Theory about Diablo Clone

Discussion in 'Diablo 2 Community Forum' started by dop_obo, Jan 31, 2004.

  1. dop_obo

    dop_obo IncGamers Member

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    Alternate Theory about Diablo Clone

    Well, I just finished reading Mafia-CUD's thread about his DC theory, and it's a good one; well thought out, and very nicely presented. However, there's no definitive proof yet that selling sojs actually spawns DC, so I thought I'd post a different viewpoint...

    The only proven fact that I've seen so far is that the 'World Event' is server wide. Any and all games active on a server whens the event happens gets the Diablo Clone.

    It's my theory that the World Events are randomly spawned by server traffic and the soj counter is merely Blizzard's way of getting rid of all the duped sojs

    The scenario: Server 189 gets reset/rebooted. This also resets the possibility of a World Event. Games get created on this server and people start killing stuff. Everytime an act boss gets killed, it adds to the soj (traffic) counter (maybe superuniques, uniques, champs too?) When enough of those kills are done in a short time span, the counter becomes visible to all games on the server (xxx sojs sold to merchants), and the world event is primed to appear. At this point, the server starts rolling possibilities of an event each time a kill happens, with the chances getting better the higher the count gets. Eventually the server rolls for an event and 'Diablo walks the earth'.

    My reasoning:
    When the patch first came out, hordes of new characters were created, and tons of act bosses were killed as part of rushing the ladder, and the world events were continually being spawned. Now, a lot less new characters are being taken to hell, and the world events aren't spawning as frequently. Lots of people trying to level just rush to Baal's minions and exit after killing them...that would slow the potential spawnings down also if the event is tied to boss kills.
    I play evenings quite a bit, which are high traffic times for bnet, and that seems to be when most of the world events happen.
    As more and more people have started using the 'netstat -n' command to find server IPs, and then parking in the games until DC spawns, it's taking longer and longer for the event to appear.
    Blizzard spent a lot of time and thought on getting the 1.10 patch right, and everyone seems to agree that getting people to actually play through the game was uppermost on their minds (better drops in more areas, etc.), so what better way than to link one of the best items in the game (Annihilus charms) with staying in a game and killing stuff? As an added bonus, they linked the words "xxx sojs sold to merchants" to the world event, causing people to voluntarily sell their duped sojs!! Pretty good thinking there. They could have just as easily used "xxx bosses killed by players" or "Jack and Jill ran up the hill xxx times" ;)

    Well, it's just a theory, based on very little evidence, but it's different and I like it. Anyone else have a theory, or just a few thoughts on this one?
     
  2. discoboomer

    discoboomer IncGamers Member

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    eh well actually when you sell a SOJ the counter goes up.

    I've been on plenty o servers that wait for a seller, then when the seller sells, the counter rises and dclone pops out.

    I have also sold a few sojs, and when I do the counter rises and DClone comes out.


    also there were a lot more sojs when ladder started, the rumor was already out that if you sell sojs you can spawn the clone. however we didn't know about teh server thing. so people would be selling on all kinds of servers so the chances of you getting a world event were higher.


    so I think the current theory stands.
     
  3. Dredd

    Dredd D3 Off Topic Moderator

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    While I agree the current theory stands I have to lay this card on the table. When the duped soj supply finally runs dry, then what? Obviously, unless Blizzard planned for the World Event to only be a temporary thing (which I doubt), it stands to reason that there are more factors/alternative methods for spawning DC. Right now nobody seems to care about other methods because soj selling has been lucrative and effective.

    I appreciate everyone's effort to look into other spawning methods. This is the second analysis I've seen on these boards and I hope plenty of people keep looking. Any possible theories will have to be tested, but until the soj selling stops, alternate spawn testing will be difficult to perform.
     
  4. dop_obo

    dop_obo IncGamers Member

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    All good points...however I have also been on servers where there were soj sell games, and he didn't pop out, or he came out hours after the selling was done. I've also been on servers where there were no sell games, and the world event happened. I do know for a fact that if you stay on a server long enough, the world event happens or bnet reboots it. As Dredd said in his post, we'll have to wait until people have sold all the sojs they can before we see for sure what's up.

    In the meantime, there's probably 50,000 casters on the ladders that will be "sell-the-farm" desperate to get a couple sojs when the ladder resets...I think I'll start hanging onto the 'ladder only' gear I find from now on... :)
     
  5. Lord Chaos

    Lord Chaos IncGamers Member

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    I want an Annihilus :(

    *cries*
     
  6. missile101

    missile101 IncGamers Member

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    "I have also been on servers where there were soj sell games, and he didn't pop out"

    the actual figure that triggers off the world event is random, you can watch many soj being sold without seeing DC. One person can sell 50 soj and get no DC and then some other punter can sell 1 and he spawns it is luck, on average is seems to be around 100soj between spawns on a server.

    " or he came out hours after the selling was done. I've also been on servers where there were no sell games, and the world event happened."

    The system does not show a soj counter when DC spawns, the last counter, the one which spawned DC, is the Diable Walks the Earth so if you see him walking without seeing any soj counters it means you were only on that server when the final lucky soj was sold. Sellers will find a server that there has been a decent number of sojs sold since the last WE and then keep selling till either he spawns or they run out of soj, if they run out and then someone else later sells a soj on that server it could be that one that triggers it thus hours after the selling was done.

    "I do know for a fact that if you stay on a server long enough, the world event happens or bnet reboots it."

    How long have you stayed on a server to find this out or where did you find this info, I am sure there are some Europe servers that have never had a world event. I have not heard anywhere of a counter resetting although I could easliy be wrong there, even after a server crashes and everyone gets thrown out of the game if you rejoin the game later the counter remains at the same level.

    Hope this helps

    M
     
  7. Dalron

    Dalron IncGamers Member

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    What concerns me most about this world event is that it benefits the cheats. Ok to get Dclone to spawn you have to sell SOJ's. The only people with enough soj's to sell are going to be those people who duped them originally, anyone that actually finds an soj (especially in ladder) is going to keep it because it is too valuable. So the dupers sell soj's and it's going to be mostly them that profit from it as they get to (in a way) convert their duped soj's to legit anhilus charms.

    What concerns me is that there is is awesome charm that everyone wants but you have to rely on dupers selling soj's to get it? Since ppl discovered IP games I have only seen 'xxx Soj's sold to Merchants' once (and that server crashed before dclone spawned).

    Surely there should be other ways of getting the charm other than sitting all night swapping games trying to get onto a game that someone says is 'Hot' and then waiting all night to see if enough people sell enough soj's. This seems to be totally counter to everything that D2 is about.
     
  8. ericbres

    ericbres IncGamers Member

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    This one sentence fragment wraps up the whole reasoning behind why selling SOJ's alone does not, and CAN NOT, spawn Diablo Clone.

    Who the HECK has 50 SOJ's to just walk up to a vendor and sell?
    Sure ... maybe one ... maybe two wacko's that have been stockpiling.

    I'll give some leeway and say a few dozen people may have had 10-20 ... but please. As often as D-Clone spawns .... with hundreds and hundreds of "SOJ's Sold to Merchants" for each SINGLE D-Clone spawn ...

    It is mathematically impossible.

    Someone out there tell me there is a player somewhere with 20+ SOJ's on them RIGHT NOW.
    You can't ... (without lying to enflame the post ... or exaggerate your personal belief)

    But yet, "somehow" Diablo Clone will likely spawn somehwere tonight while the counter says 1800 (<--- random number) SOJ's sold to merchants.

    They aren't out there to be sold anymore ... maybe some ... but not the thousands needed to spawn him every night.

    And are we all forgetting why the SOJ was so popular in the first place?
    Because it made a nice ring.
    So ... you mean to tell me that NOBODY wants to wear an SOJ anymore?

    I'll tell ya what ... I consider myself a fairly active player. I have NEVER found an SOJ ... or traded for one ...
    If I find one, I am wearing it. Not selling it to a merchant.

    By the way ... nice work Blizz getting some people to sell off their duped SOJ's. It was a good idea.
    Just a thought for when the ladder resets ...
    Change the message to ZOD's sold to merchants ... then you can clean some duped ZOD's out.
    Then ... at the next ladder reset ... change it to (insert next most popular duped item here) ...

    It worked. It was a great plan. We were duped (in the OTHER definition of the word).
     
  9. breez

    breez IncGamers Member

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    You are wrong. Those sojs sold are ofc not found. They are duped. There's definitely plenty of people with tens of sojs in non-ladder. I don't know for sure if other than SOJ selling can spawn DC, BUT it's 100% sure that people are selling sojs and it does spawn DC.

    Why it may not spawn DC even if a person sells 50 sojs? As somebody already said, DC spawns at average 100 sojs from last spawn and if DC had just spawn on that server, then 50 sojs WILL not spawn it again. Need another 50. Or 25. Or 100. The number varies.

    I have been in 7 DC games in last 2 weeks and I have checked hot ip's from an ircchannel and there are sellers selling sojs, asking for sell games etc.. I suppose they are all just pretending?
     
  10. missile101

    missile101 IncGamers Member

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    Ok there will not be many people out there with 50 soj but your views on mathematically impossible are questionable, for a start nothing should ever be deemed impossible through speculation. When a counter reads 1300 soj sold that is the number that have been sold on that server since the start of 1.10, it is easly mathematically possible with the numbers of dupes there were around in 1.09. There are still people out there with 10+ sojs and wait till the next duping spree and there will be many more, sadly none of them are legit and following the good clean methods that most users of this board follow people should not have that many but sadly they do. Diablo clone has given people a method to convert their duped soj into legit charms. With the advent of rust storm finally duping is usually pointless unless something can be done to fix the items, runes are upgraded and soj sold.

    The number of times the clone is spawning is slowing down and there only seem to be a few big sellers left in Europe, where they get the soj from I can only guess but when a server suddenly becomes "HOT" this is not a fluke occurance but groups of people arranging to sell together to increase their chances. If someone has a large number of soj to sell they are unlikely just to open a random game and sell them, they will have every machine they know of logged onto that server and all their friends before they start selling.

    The problem for all legit players is that for every person still playing this game by the rules there are 2 who are not, things that were a great idea in a fair world e.g. World Event and Rune upgrades just get taken advantage of. What Blizzard did with the world event was to have it realm wide on a server, not caring if ladder, sc or hc thus enabling the chance that DC could spawn on Ladder enabling everyone to get a chance at seeing DC, this does not seem to be working and maybe they should begin restricting it to only spawning in the game type the soj are sold in although this will mean the end of DC on ladder as people are correct no one is going to be in a rush to sell a ladder soj. Anyway maybe this is something Blizzard will think of when they finally end this ladder season, sooner the better if you ask me.

    Enough said

    M
     
  11. Frenzied Bovine

    Frenzied Bovine IncGamers Member

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    There's no polite way to put this: your theory is wrong.

    People have thousands of SoJ to sell. You might not accept this as fact, but it is true. I know people with 50+ annihilus charms (all unid). Guess where they put them all? Temp mules - and then sell them to Ebay customers.

    Let me run through the facts quickly.

    SoJ sales increase the counter by 1 every sale. If you sell too fast you don't get a message but the counter goes up.

    SoJ sales trigger the DClone at some random interval. No SoJ message is seen when Diablo Walks The Earth.

    The SoJ counter is not reset after a DC event - so the counter you see is the number of SoJ's sold since the server last rebooted.

    All servers on the seller's ip address get a DC. I've had 3 pc's on the same ip and all had Diablo Walks The Earth simultaneously. Yes, that's 3 free annihilus charms. Yes, I have a lot of annihilus charms - this is why they can barely buy a Shako anymore. And people have two or three times the amount of Annihilus I do.

    People are doing this on a nightly basis. If you were really coordinated about it, you would organize to get 20+ computers onto one server and then sell SoJ.

    The "magic number" seems to be either a multiple of 100 (eg, 500, 2100, 1700) or 100 SoJ's since the last spawning event (eg he spawned at 1752, next spawn at approx 1852). But in reality, anyone who claims he'll pop "soon" because the counter is at some number deserves to be laughed at.

    The chance to spawn a DC per SoJ is extremely small, so yes, you can run through 50+ SoJ and never see a clone.

    It doesn't matter what difficulty you sell in, though if you sell in a Hell game you'll get a clone (and annihilus) yourself.

    I've spawned the clone in a single player Hell game on my third SoJ sold.

    I've seen the clone spawn in a Hell game that reported 400 SoJ's sold.

    I've seen a Hell game with over 2500 SoJ sold and no clone.

    I've been in a Normal game when the counter went off, and people I know in a Hell game reported that Diablo walked on that IP and I got no clone (surprise, surprise!).

    The spawn is pretty much completely random. Just hang around while dupers sell SoJ and he WILL spawn, provided they don't stop. I have waited 20+ hours in one game to get a clone. Others, he spawns after 5 minutes. On occasion, he can spawn out of the blue with no messages at all (really fast seller + DC walks generates no sale message).

    Anyone who believes it's not related to SoJ sales is kidding themselves, i'm sorry to say.

    The sellers are running out of SoJ, sale games are fewer and far between, but if you know where to go you can find out which IP's are active and/or "hot" and still get them. I got 3 charms last night by joining games that had SoJ sellers. You still gonna tell me those 3 charms were pure fluke??
     
  12. Usufruct

    Usufruct IncGamers Member

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    Your theory is by all definitions wrong.
     
  13. jer2911

    jer2911 IncGamers Member

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    There were many theories initially....some people apparently still believe selling soj's has nothing to do with it, and soj message doesn't mean a soj was sold....

    the first couple of annis i got were just luck, mf'ing in a game and dclone msg popped up.....

    now that some people claim they know the secret not only to finding him, but also making him spawn, i really think it has to be tied to soj being sold, because it never fails, the games where people coordinate to sell soj on a particular ip more than likely spawn a dclone......
    people make a non-ladder game with a mule on ip xx, and tell all their forum buddies to create a game on that ip xx....all their forum buddies have a ladder ip game waiting for dclone.....guys sell their non-ladder soj on that ip, everyone sees soj sold msgs....if the seller runs out of soj, he tells his buddies and someone else joins his nonladder sell game with another soj mule....duped soj's are still available for non-ladder....

    it kinda bugs me that the dupers are, in a way, rewarded with dclone charms for thier duped soj's.....and i'm sure there will be a small % of random people who just happen to have a game up on that ip when dclone spawns, but the majority will be other dupers and friends of dupers that have coordinated to be on that ip...so other dupers are actually saving their duped sojs by teaming up with other dupers to get dclone with one guy's soj's, then someone else's for next ip they move to
     
  14. dop_obo

    dop_obo IncGamers Member

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    The longest I have sat on a server is about 46 hours...got the 'server will shut down in x minutes' msg on that one. I'm assuming that servers get reset, as I have never heard of the "sojs sold" messages going over 4000...but have seen them up in the mid 3800's.
     
  15. dop_obo

    dop_obo IncGamers Member

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    Well, when I played 1.09, I had 2 characters full of sojs, just from trading gear that I didn't need....I'm sure there are still people out there that have accounts full of sojs, so it'll be awhile before they thin out...
     
  16. dop_obo

    dop_obo IncGamers Member

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    Thanks for the great post! Pretty convincing stuff. I have to admit that there are too many concurring opinions that selling sojs spawns the dclone to ignore. However, I'm not convinced that it's the only way to spawn the world event. Unfortunately, until the soj supply runs out, there's no way I can see to prove/disprove my theory...
     
  17. dop_obo

    dop_obo IncGamers Member

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    LOL

    Well, your post did absolutely nothing useful for this thread, but it did provide me with a good chuckle to go along with my morning coffee... :D
     
  18. dop_obo

    dop_obo IncGamers Member

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    Not everyone that has multiples of non-ladder sojs are dupers...probably very few of them are, most just traded legitimate items for them, as they were (maybe still are?) considered currency items on non-ladder...
     
  19. Usufruct

    Usufruct IncGamers Member

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    First of all, you should realize that you can respond to more than one reply per post - hence rendering it unnecessary to post five times in a row.
    Your theory as quoted above is inarguably false therefore justifying my post. While I see you have since changed your viewpoint, I was at the time responding to your original post, as rational logic should lead you to believe. You also must admit then that your original theory is in fact "by all definitions wrong".
     
  20. Frenzied Bovine

    Frenzied Bovine IncGamers Member

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    Yeah there is. Join a game with a seller ip and do absolutely nothing but stand around in camp. Don't even talk to any NPC's. Just idle away the time staring at your stash, your feet, admiring your equipment, etc.

    If the clone spawns in your game, then only one thing could have done it: an action external to your game, by some other party, that triggers the clone.

    The only action external to your game that you know for sure is reliably happening each and every time the clone spawns is that someone, somewhere, is selling sojs on your server's ip. You can see the messages. The seller SAYS he's selling on that ip - what possible motivation would they have to lie about it?

    Therefore, the only possible conclusion is that SoJ sales trigger the dclone.

    Quad Erat Demonstradum, etc, etc.

    I can guarantee you I have joined games and done precisely nothing at all until the clone spawns - many, many times. I have also had DC spawn in games when I was doing pit runs. Or Meph runs. Or running on the spot in the outer cloister. There is no commonality between any games other than someone claims to be selling on my ip.

    Once you accept the fact that someone out there actually still has SoJ's to sell, it's easy to put 2 and 2 together.
     

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