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A statistical challenge offered!

Discussion in 'Theorycrafting and Statistics' started by alsetzer, Mar 29, 2004.

  1. alsetzer

    alsetzer IncGamers Member

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    A statistical challenge offered!

    Hey all, this is something I'd love to see, but it unfortuneately falls beyond my skills to prepare...

    So, we all know that looking for an soj is best done by running NM andy. Looking for a shaftstop is one of the Mephistos (NM i think), etc. etc. specific places to run for specific set/unique items...

    But what about tancred's wierd? What about a Ribcracker?

    Would it even be possible (and as I said, beyond my skill and knowledge) to compile a list of every set unique item in the game and the best area/superunique to run for it?

    Of course the short answer is always Mephy or the Pit, but I'd LOVE to see a list of every item with the best place to run it based on TC, Ilvl, Mlvl etc.

    If anyone wants to accept this challenge, please reply your intentions to this thread, I'm sure it would be a fabulously popular sticky, possibly even a new D2net guide!

    Rock and Roll

    Alsetzer :wave:
     
  2. RTB

    RTB IncGamers Member

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    How about a program instead? It's called ATMA and it has a built-in drop calculator for all versions of the expansion pack.
     
  3. alsetzer

    alsetzer IncGamers Member

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    Is this a different program than the single player muling one? (a tenchi muling application) Is it something I can link to off of this site? is it a download or a program I can run from the site it's on?

    Thank you for the help

    ps. I still think a Compiled list for a sticky or a guide would be mega-rad
     
  4. Thrugg

    Thrugg IncGamers Member

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    While such a list is possible, it can be slightly misleading. You can certainly calculate precisely the chance of any one drop from a given monster being a given item (this depends only on known item info and monster info). And with some extra work you can calculate the chance of it per kill (though this then depends on how many people are in the game, and on the geometry of where you kill the monster). But to get a useful number, you really need to consider the time it takes to kill that monster as well, and that depends on character build, and playing style, which are obviously hard to measure.

    That's why we stick to the basic rules of thumb. TC9 to TC75, it is whichever Mephisto is the first with high enough TC and mlvl to drop the item. Anything above that up to TC84, it's Hell Baal.

    TC87s depend on the char, whether they are better at killing big targets, crowds of small targets, or speed-killing a single target (Baal, level 85 areas, Pindle respectively).

    TC3 and TC6 are a bit more interesting, it's actually normal Cow King for most of them, but if you want someone you can run solo you need to think about it a bit more.

    For rings and amulets it is whichever Andariel is the first that can drop the one you want. For the ones higher level than Hell Andy, it'll depend on your char.
     
  5. Variable_Angel

    Variable_Angel IncGamers Member

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    Ummm... Why?
    The percent chance doesn't really matter if there are more people because it'll grow for every monster won't it?

    I think the initial question was the monster with highest chance and,
    I think you think that he thinks that he wants the percent chance for every one and,
    I think i'm an idiot so don't listen to what "I think"

    I kind of like the idea though (however time-consuming it may be)

    I did take into account the speed it takes to kill somone, and stuff like that, but is that really the point of knowing who drops it the most? (maybe if you listed the top three people)

    We could always split it up into like 6-7 people taking different letters of sets and uniques

    I'll even get started on

    A-C of all Uniques and Sets (and i'm including C so example: Angelics or Cathans)

    i'll look for that one website you can do it pretty easy there, hang on . . .
    I haven't been up with news, so tell me if this site is up to date please!
    http://stats.diabloii.net/calcs/TC/frameset.shtml

    -Roux

    PS - i think i'll wait o\n doing A-C until i find a site that's reliable (hopefully the one i gave)
     
  6. Thrugg

    Thrugg IncGamers Member

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    Different monsters are affected differently by the number of people in the game. For example, random bosses drop the same no matter how many people are playing, while act bosses drop slightly more items up to a point, and regular monsters are a lot more likely to drop something with more players. Which means that the "best chance" might not be the same depending on the number.

    To give an extreme example of how much killing speed can matter - by far the best chance of a getting a Gul rune in the game is from the Hell Hellforge. 1/11. But can you compare that to each kill of a cow in the cow level? How many cows can you kill in the time it takes to get a char up to Hell Hellforge? It depends (on quite a lot in this case), and so if you are a very good cow killer but not a very good Hellforge rusher, you might be better off killing cows for a Gul. Even at a smaller scale, say comparing Baal to Pindle, or a Pit run, it makes a big difference whether you can do 30 Pindle runs in the time it takes to do a Baal run, or only 10, as to which is better. But Pindle's raw odds for dropping anything are always going to look worse than Baal's.

    The stats.diabloii.net calculator was only for 1.09 I'm afraid, and wasn't 100% accurate even for that. You may want to try the ATMA calculator, but that is not online, you'd have to download and install it.
     
  7. sangfagel

    sangfagel IncGamers Member

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    I think that an idea of running one monster with highest probability of a certain drop can be missguiding in most cases. It can look good on paper but it does not work in practice in the same way even if numbers are calculated right.

    Since probabilities of getting a ONE certain item is allways VERY little in comparition to chances for all other possible events your luck depends mostly on THE UNEXPECTED. Let´s take an exempel:

    I was running Countess hunting Ists. She has the best chances for this drop so she was the right monser. So far I made ~350 runs and she dropped only one Ist (one is better than expected anyway). The UNEXPECTED during these runs gave me though: unique shako, set lacquered plate, set kraken shell, Annihilus 18/18/8... and much more. The UNEXPECTED>Ist.

    Thrugg makes a point writing that "that depends on character build, and playing style, which are obviously hard to measure" and taking into concideration time needed for actions in game.

    Knowledge about monster/area lvls, qlvls, individual bonuses for uniqe drops, etc is still of high importance in focused m-finding. The only reasonable "target" for mf-ing can be though a QUALITY LVL in general - not a chosen item. The only exceptions I can see are:
    1.ladder NM Andy/soj - just becouse of insane prices for this ring
    2.single player.
     
  8. Variable_Angel

    Variable_Angel IncGamers Member

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    Gotcha, where can i find the ATMA and is it like not gonna screw up my diablo?
    cuz i can't play anyway because of my brother loading maphack and stuff on our computer (i htink buying a new disc will fix that, but idk)

    And your prolly right, this would be a waste of time except NM Andy and Norm Diablo (i believe) for SoJs and NM Diablo for Bul-Kathos

    oh well. . . off to dreamland for me
     
  9. RTB

    RTB IncGamers Member

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    You can get ATMA here: http://atma.diabloii.net

    I can assure you that it won't screw up your computer.
     
  10. DarkY

    DarkY IncGamers Member

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    d2data.net?
     
  11. Thrugg

    Thrugg IncGamers Member

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    DarkY, if you mean their drop calculator, it's all wrong on many levels. That was why we had to put one in ATMA :)
     

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