A experiment for all - Area lvl 85 runs

How would you like to gather your loot?

  • Repetitive boss runs.

    Votes: 6 12.8%
  • Monsters all across Sanctuary (scaled vs lvl)

    Votes: 30 63.8%
  • PvP (won't happen, though I felt obligated to add it)

    Votes: 2 4.3%
  • Interactive Objects (chests, pots, book cases, etc)

    Votes: 1 2.1%
  • Achievements

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other

    Votes: 8 17.0%

  • Total voters
    47

Klæmint Vágadal

Diabloii.Net Member
A experiment for all - Area lvl 85 runs

I had nothing better to do at work today then think of Diablo, so I came up with a semi-great idea. What about getting as many as possible people from the forum to make a experiment on Alvl 85 dropps? The choice of char to mf with is up to the person joining the experiment, and so is the MF%. And we can make a discussion here on what areas to run. My choices would be CS, WSK, The Pits and Ancient Tunnles. How long this schould take is altso up for discussion here.

So all I need is some feedback for this idea :smiley: Are you in?
 

TTTimo

Diabloii.Net Member
I would say per person hundred runs, this is really doable with a good (good not godly) equiped character, with ten people helping it would already be 1000 runs. I will join in as soon as I get my new hammer going :)

EDIT: The number of players in the game should also be factored in, as well as other benefits (Getting XP yourself, helping others level etc etc)
 

krischan

Europe Trade Moderator
If you just want to have some information about who drops how much of what, better use ATMA, except the reason to do this at all is to proove ATMA or to proove it wrong.

I think you need at least 100,000 runs in total to make meaningful statistics about e.g. all uniques which might be considered as statistical evidence that ATMA is correct or wrong and your statistics about really rare ones like Tyrael's or unique, class-specific TC87 armor still won't be very accurate. For that purpose, better consider making a few millions of visits in total.

To be honest, IMO it's a big waste of time. As already said, have a look at the single player forum, that's where the masochist MFers are.
 

sirwhere

Diabloii.Net Member
krischan, are you aware that precision usually goes with the square-root of the number of measurements?

i.e. 100 000 runs isn't 100 better than 1000 runs, but only 10 times as good?
 

krischan

Europe Trade Moderator
Well, I studied physics which involved a lot of statistics. :azn:

With that logic you can as well say "Why doing 100 runs when it's just 10 times better than a single one ?". No matter if it pays off linearly or not, it's the only way to add precision.

It doesn't depend on the number of events, but on the number of events with the result you are looking for, so when finding let's say one Tyrael's in 100,000 runs, that's an average of 10 in 1,000,000 runs with a standard deviation of sqrt(10)~=3.16. That means if you do several series of a million runs each, the average difference between the expected value and the actual value for each series of 1,000,000 runs has an average of 3.16. If it isn't within certain limits, chances are good that the theory which predicted the value is wrong.
 

Klæmint Vágadal

Diabloii.Net Member
I just thought of this idea, because I think in the long run, Mf'ing is boring, but if some people on the forum get together and do a study, if you will call it that, you will have better motivations to 200-300 runs and there will be a bit of compition to see who gets the best drops. My goal was not to prove anything, and who knows, if the outcome is good and everybody enjoyed it, it will be done again with different goals.
 

Frosty_The_Snowman

Diabloii.Net Member
Well, I studied physics which involved a lot of statistics. :azn:

With that logic you can as well say "Why doing 100 runs when it's just 10 times better than a single one ?". No matter if it pays off linearly or not, it's the only way to add precision.

It doesn't depend on the number of events, but on the number of events with the result you are looking for, so when finding let's say one Tyrael's in 100,000 runs, that's an average of 10 in 1,000,000 runs with a standard deviation of sqrt(10)~=3.16. That means if you do several series of a million runs each, the average difference between the expected value and the actual value for each series of 1,000,000 runs has an average of 3.16. If it isn't within certain limits, chances are good that the theory which predicted the value is wrong.
When I read this kind of post, I definitely tend to agree that you have one of the most suitable avatars :grin: :brainiac: !



 

sirwhere

Diabloii.Net Member
Well, anyway.. my point is that when the theoretical odds are available, lenghty testing doesn't make much sense :) That's the thing you do when you don't have any odds to start with ;)

By the way... Remember the "pindleskin calculator" back in 1.09? That rocked. When you plugged-in 20 000 runs and it gave back in a split-second "20 days later, you've found.. 10 axes of fletchmar and 50 ISENHART'S CASES!!" :p
 

Fluffballer

Diabloii.Net Member
I'm not trying to be sarcastic, but what is the point? The exact percentage of any particular drop has already been calculated, so what are you hoping to test?
 

seralph

Diabloii.Net Member
Well, I studied physics
Now I know why you are so sympathic. If not a secret when and where did you studied? The comunity of physicians isn't that big and the world quit small.



To the topic:
1. In case this shoud become a competition how to prove the finds aren't faked? How to value the finds? What makes this competition atractiv?

2. In case this is for statistical purposes how to count the slain monsters? How to consolidate diffrent setups(mf, playercount) / diffrent monsters? Assume a random number genarator initalized with a truly random number and an uniformly distribution of numbers? Whats the goal of it? Why should this result in significant data at all? Why not debugging/disassemble the game?

Much more question comes to my mind. Seems I miss the point of it totally.



 
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