2020 Spring RFL Sign-Up and Running Thread: 1st Round

DiabloTwoinDC

Diabloii.Net Member
Code:
FROM /TO        FLIGHT  CL DATE   DEP
BANGKOK         MS 961  V  13MAR  0050
CAIRO               ARRIVAL TIME: 0615

<<16:35 HR Layover>>

FROM /TO        FLIGHT  CL DATE   DEP
CAIRO           MS 981  V  13MAR  2250
WASHINGTON          ARRIVAL TIME: 0510   ARRIVAL DATE: 14MAR
Tonight is not an Accident. There are no accidents.
 

PhineasB

Diabloii.Net Member
Nice theorycrafting and discussion of runners, @everyone! I updated the current runners in the first post. Only 27-ish hours away. HYPE!! Good luck, and have fun!
 

Luhkoh

Diabloii.Net Member
@maxicek what do you look for in a map when rerolling?

That is another question, shouldn't be hard to expand the spreadsheet to that effect – but I wasn't particularly interested in it because I've only seen it very rarely that CEs do not chain immediately with Trapper. FB deals considerably more AoE damage than Necro's PN does even with lower FB dmg setups, so that seems to solve chaining issues that Necro can have when undergeared (not really a problem for Necro with good gear).
Also I thought about this some more while doing test runs and think i have a better understanding now. You're definitely right that the first corpse pretty much always chains because the fb has weakened the cows around the first corpse. But you still need more than one corpse for DS to clear the whole group. So i guess the question is something like: which is faster?

1. fastest first corpse, ds, new corpses fall, ds starts to clear group (beast setup best ofc)
2. max fireblast dmg gives like 4 corpses all at once, and the multiple ds's go to town on whole group immediately

Or anywhere between the two extremes. From your tests, it seems like #1 is definitely faster. I had been conceptualizing it as if number 2 would be best, and so was confused how beast was giving such better times for you.

Relevant follow up question, is there any limit how fast multiple DS's can do CE's? Like lets say you have 4 corpses and 4 DS's. Can they explode all 4 corpses as fast as they could fire 4 lightning bolts? This should be observable pretty easily, but sometimes its hard to tell exactly what's going on with DS.
 
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ffs

Diabloii.Net Member
I don't follow your logic. :confused: For option 2 ("FB providing 4 corpses at once") you seem to be ignoring Merc completely, or at least whether Merc is there or not makes no difference. But of course he does make a difference. There is a first corpse, and that is the one that he deals the most damage to (unless you throw FBs elsewhere). Now after that first corpse gets exploded, does that immediately kill other cows in the standard scenario that you throw FBs at the same target Merc is attacking? Based solely on observations that seems to be the usual case with any decent setup, so that's good.

There is a tiny window between after the first CE triggered but before the corpses it produces hit the ground for the CE chain. Basically the "corpses flying in the air" window. Do you mean to say FB helps in maybe providing a corpse in this window, so that DS doesn't need to wait on the corpses triggered by the first CE to fall? That would make sense to me at least, though I'd strongly assume it's not worth gearing around. :D

AFAIK DS works like this: It checks every 31 frames whether a corpse is within its awareness radius. If it is, it will trigger a corpse explosion, otherwise it will trigger a lightning bolt to a random target within its awareness radius. DS traps are treated individually so in theory 4 DS can trigger 4 CEs simultaneously, but only if you cast them 31 frames apart. ;) If you lay down one every 9 frames, they will trigger their actions within 9 frames of each other. That is my understanding at least.

This "gradual CE" is very helpful in enabling Phoenix main switch, because there's a good chance that when Redemption triggers there will be corpses "in the making" rather than being available for Redemption to steal them all at once. I never tested Necro with Phoenix, but wouldn't be surprised if it didn't work simply due to the lack of this "gradual CE" nature.
 
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CaseyJones

Diabloii.Net Member
Well, as for me, my light sorc dinged 94 on Diablo runs. He even awarded me my first Azurewrath and another Shako during the process (93.25 to 94) :)

All set for round 1. I know I don't run optimally but I do like my cow map with the cow king fort in upper right corner. Allows me to enter....do a counter clockwise path around to the fort knowing I get most cows with next to zero chance my merc can poke the king.

Hoping for a Ber drop during the round to make COH for this sorc.

Good luck everyone and have fun!
 

Luhkoh

Diabloii.Net Member
@ffs I was trying to present the two extreme examples. So #1 is merc corpse focused, and #2 is as if merc isnt there at all (or if you like fb'd cows down in a separate group, but faster than he gets his first corpse). I was thinking there were like zones between these two extremes (that would indeed be explained by your "corpses in air" time), but I think I'm wrong. What you're saying I guess is most all the time, I'm not going to kill cows completely before the DS explodes merc's first corpse anyways. So #1 is what should be happening 90% of the time with pretty much every setup.

So when I would say or think "assassin needs more than one corpse to start CE chain", somehow my mind jumped incorrectly to my #2 scenario. Then I saw your might merc/beast times, so I knew something about my rationale was wrong. I think I've finally got it understood though :D

And thanks for the DS info. That makes sense for sure. And the gradual vs sudden CE thing is interesting too!
 

art_vandelay

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First time running Cows with Java that wears 1.07 MPK ring :D

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art_vandelay

Diabloii.Net Member
About four and a half hours to go for me and I'm torn between trying to get my feeling for 1.14d back and wanting to avoid any good rune drops just before the start. Going great so far...
pul.png
 

TwentyMuleTeam

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I'm not the fastest, or best geared, but it sure beats doing LK runs!

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Gripphon

Diabloii.Net Member
I'm gonna count all runes drop through the set to keep me occupied and provide some data along the way. It would be awesome if someone prepares some file about cows what are the real odds of them dropping ANY rune to have an estimate of cows killed after 20 hours. I did calculations with "naive method", but I'm interested in "real method" calculation for this to see how different it is.
 

Luhkoh

Diabloii.Net Member
@Gripphon can you explain the difference between the real and naive method for this? As far as I know the way we've done it in the past is the most accurate way. If you mean calculating a confidence interval for the results, I figured that out a while back and can dig up the info. But iirc it was super discouraging, and I personally think the info is more useful than the confidence interval suggests.

Again, might be overlooking something, but the "naive" and "clever" rune cubing calculations (I couldn't convince him to use a less condescending name) that @drmalawi showed us, results from the fact that you cant cube incomplete rune recipes (ie 3 surs don't make 1.5 bers). I'm not aware of anything similar going on from taking the runes * 1/(chance of rune from cows).

EDIT: and also this likely isn't the best thread to mention this, but as far as your runeguide goes, the clever cubing calc would change the "average runs or time to find a rune" somewhat, but the only area comparisons that would come into question are the LK vs trav for jah and trav vs cows for zod. Since the naive method overvalues cubing's impact somewhat.
 
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Gripphon

Diabloii.Net Member
@Luhkoh
With naive method, chance of getting ANY rune from p5 cows is 1/244.5, for p7 it is 1/216.7
For small numbers it is good approximation, although I was lazy to check it with real method, still number shouldn't be more than half a point away I guess. But I'm never sure is there something I don't understand about these calculations.
 

squidder

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First time for everything...

thanks to organisers!

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[/QUOTE]
 

Luhkoh

Diabloii.Net Member
@Gripphon what exactly are you doing that is naive to get those numbers? Adding the probabilities of each of the runes? I get the same answer. The calc looks like this (using p5 for example).
p = playersetting = 5

Chance to drop in Act 5 (H) Good TC
TC = Cows(H) (see treasureclassex.txt)
Nodrop = 100
Probsum = 60 (this is the sum of all non-nodrop picks in that TC)
Act5 (H) Good = 3
N = floor(1+(p-1)/2) = 3
Newnodrop = floor(probsum/(1/((nodrop/(probsum+nodrop))^N)-1)) <---surely a theres a better way to write that formula <shrug>
Newnodrop = 19
Chance Act 5 (H) Good = 3 / (Probsum + Newnodrop) = 3/(60+19) = 3/79

Chance to drop Runes17 TC
Nodrop = 0 (no need to adjust for psetting when already zero)
Probsum = 130
Runes17 = 14
Chance Runes17 = 14/130 = 7/65

Chance Cow drops rune
(7/65) * (3/79) = 1/244.5
I can do these much more easily in a spreadsheet and did calcs last year for this and for trav and other monsters (wraiths and non wraiths). Let me know what/if you want summarized beyond what's in that rune calculator I made last year and I'll make a sheet or chart.
 

J-Dog

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Luhkoh

Diabloii.Net Member
Parents are visiting this weekend, so not going to be able to get a solid start on the set. I expect no issues with finishing the set, I'm just eager to get on the running hype train :).
 
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