2018 Spring RFL Sign-Up and Running Thread: Grande Finale

drmalawi

Diabloii.Net Member
I am trying to figure out how many monsters I kill per minute using the Jewel method. 2 hours, 24 jewels = 1/5 jewel/min.

Jewel drop rate p7 is 1:758 (for Clans and Lords).

758/5 = 151,6

So about 150 monsters/min?

I did a spreadsheet
AS runes.png
 
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ffs

Diabloii.Net Member
@drmalawi There was some discussion about the jewel counting method earier in this thread. Of course what you say is what statistics indicate, but it just requires a huge sample because of the high variance. You can go 2000 kills and only get 1 jewel, or 200 kills and get 10 jewels. Couple of hours (or even 20) is too short to draw definite conclusions... That's why we've counted monsters in recordings. :D :rolleyes:

EDIT: @T72on1 you could go with a rare FCR circlet to substitute Griffon's maybe? If you have better gloves (Javelin skills/IAS) I'd prefer that over using Magefist, mostly because of the IAS actually.
 

drmalawi

Diabloii.Net Member
@ffs Yes, here are some variance plots for 20k kills and 200k kills

joolsbaby.png

One could count Rings instead, they drop about 4 times as likely as Jewels. Or Cham runes ;)

What is nice to see is that the standard deviation goes as sqrt(N), 10 times larger sample gives a relative standard deviation suppression of a factor ~ 3 which is expected. By counting rings instead, which drop rate is 4 times higher, at 200k kills the standard deviation should be equal about 3% of the average value.

Wondering what gives highest accuracy after 20h runs, counting Rings, or watching 5 videos in slow motion and count by hand and finally extrapolate that into +1000 runs?

The amount of effective monsters killed per min by counting also varies. Someone got about 300 in one run for instance
 
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ffs

Diabloii.Net Member
Don't fully understand the underlying method, but interesting facts. :) I love how this game is now played by grown-ups that apply all kinds of skills to it! Personally I'm a lawyer, which means I let others do the complicated numbers. :p
 

drmalawi

Diabloii.Net Member
I should say that those 20k and 200k kills was simulated 1000 times each, to get the standard deviation (which is square root of the variance). There is a way to analytically calculate the variance of course, but I was too lazy to do it.

What my main point was, is that there is a variance when you count the number of kills by watching a video aswell, since the the number of monsters (and types) are random too, so how many runs does one need to do in order to extrapolate it to about 1500 runs with, lets say, 3% accuracy and what will the invested time by watching those videos (in slow motion) be?

I'd say it is easier to check number of drops of something that is i) fairly common and ii) fairly noteable/countable doing runs. Counting number of Mana potions or scrolls of town portals would slow down your run too much I think :p And then do as many runs needed in order to match a desired theoretical accuracy.

(The thing that has the highest variance, is the high rune drops ;) )

I am former particle physics researcher and now I am a math teacher, so I love numbers and statistics <3
 
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NanoMist

Diabloii.Net Member
@drmalawi - There's definitely a significant variance in number of kills per run/per minute, even more so in maps with the ghosts, from what I've counted. I'd say 5-10 runs by counting is the limit of my patience, but it's the best short duration method we have that doesn't impact our runs.
The 200K kills are in the neighborhood of a 20 hour set- it's good to see some stats regarding that. I rather have this info over a few counted runs, but this info can't be obtained until it's too late. Good for future batches I suppose. Jewels are the most common of all the items I'm collecting, so unfortunately I won't be contributing anything better.
 

drmalawi

Diabloii.Net Member
You would not pickup the rings, just count them.
Perhaps if one uses the run counter that marks off runs with a hotkey, and uses that for the number of Rings?
 

NanoMist

Diabloii.Net Member
I'm 1 hour short of finishing, no more additional stats that I want to collect at this point. Also, each charm type has the same drop chance as jewels, right? I just realized small and grand charms can be used here as well.
 

drmalawi

Diabloii.Net Member
I'm 1 hour short of finishing, no more additional stats that I want to collect at this point. Also, each charm type has the same drop chance as jewels, right? I just realized small and grand charms can be used here as well.
yes that is true! So jewel or SC or GC would be 3:758 = 1:253

That would lower the standard deviation/mean with a factor of sqrt(3)
 
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Brak

Diabloii.Net Member
can this also be applied to containers?
I've oft wondered how (in)efficient my container obsession is
 

T72on1

Diabloii.Net Member
Did some more AS runs with my Javazon, following @ffs' advice and switching the Shako for a fcr circlet (with mana steal, quite handy I must say) and the gloves for 20% ias ones. I have the feeling I'm finally getting into it. A bit on the late side unfortunately, with only 2 hours to go.

I must say I'm very much looking forward to the results, especially of those running AS. There's so much potential !!!
 

drmalawi

Diabloii.Net Member
I am 6 h into my second batch, goal is to just do AS with Javazon. One qualifier so far, so not looking good :/
 

ffs

Diabloii.Net Member
Also around ~6.5h into second set, running AS with Javazon and at 4 qualifiers for her so far. Fooled around with different setups but kept going back to the first setup mentioned above. After 10h I'll probably switch to Pits and run that until the end, just to have a shot at some S&Us here and there. Hopefully will be able to finish her set this time!

Kind of quiet in here, hope people are still running? :)
 

PhineasB

Diabloii.Net Member
Back to playing again, and a little less than 13 hrs into the set. Some nice non-qualifiers that I'll post at the end of the round (almost wish this was MFO instead of RFL :rolleyes:). The untwinked pally is a bit past 97.75, and finishing the set would put him at >3.195. Not sure if we'll get there, but the holiday tomorrow may make it possible.
 

Yng

Diabloii.Net Member
8 hours now, still 1 qualifier.
Could’ve did quite a bit of running last night but I wasn’t feeling it and spent 5-6 hours failing at Any% HC speedruns.

E: to elaborate I’m getting tons of sets/uniques with 50 MF and haven’t seen anything higher than Lem since I started Nihlathak besides the 1 qualifier. Complaining for the RNG etc.
 
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drmalawi

Diabloii.Net Member
I am about 10h in my second set, AS with Javazon. Only 2 qualifiers for me so far, so I think I have consumed all my rune luck in the first set ;)
 

Pb_pal

Diabloii.Net Member
Set is finished, results sent.

As usual, here is a little snippit of non-qualifier goodness to look at until the results thread is up. Good luck to those still running! Get those roooooooonz

Flawless Amethysts: 81
Flawless Rubies: 64
Jewels: 97 (nothing noteworthy)
Sol: 30
Ral: 32
Skillers: 6
1 x Captain's (+1-13 lit dmg)
2 x Graverobber's (both plain)
1 x Harpoonist's (plain)
1 x Spiritual (plain)
1 x Sparking GC of Sustenance (Next RFL = Lit sorc in the AS?)
Code:
Sparking Grand Charm of Sustenance 
Grand Charm 
Required Level: 42 
Fingerprint: 0xd6e45732 
Item Level: ** 
Version: Expansion 1.10+ 
+1 to Lightning Skills (Sorceress Only) 
+29 to Life

Favourite kept charms:
Steel GC of Balance
Code:
Steel Grand Charm of Balance 
Grand Charm 
Required Level: 35 
Fingerprint: 0x3ee2b32f 
Item Level: 85 
Version: Expansion 1.10+ 
+12% Faster Hit Recovery 
+115 to Attack Rating
Steel GC of Dex
Code:
Steel Grand Charm of Dexterity 
Grand Charm 
Required Level: 41 
Fingerprint: 0x485fc00e 
Item Level: ** 
Version: Expansion 1.10+ 
Unidentified 
+130 to Attack Rating 
+4 to Dexterity
Fine SC of Vita
Code:
Fine Small Charm of Vita 
Small Charm 
Required Level: 39 
Fingerprint: 0x63e00831 
Item Level: 85 
Version: Expansion 1.10+ 
+3 to Maximum Damage 
+14 to Attack Rating 
+19 to Life
Fine SC of balance
Code:
Fine Small Charm of Balance 
Small Charm 
Required Level: 29 
Fingerprint: 0x53de1691 
Item Level: 85 
Version: Expansion 1.10+ 
+5% Faster Hit Recovery 
+2 to Maximum Damage 
+18 to Attack Rating
Ruby SC of Inertia
Code:
Ruby Small Charm of Inertia 
Small Charm 
Required Level: 32 
Fingerprint: 0x96b030e5 
Item Level: ** 
Version: Expansion 1.10+ 
+3% Faster Run/Walk 
Fire Resist +11%
 

Grape

Diabloii.Net Member
It's awesome how you can still find new potentially great ways to farm certain areas after all these years!

What we will come up with the next year??

I've received some results already. It's getting very interesting. To those running still, good luck!
 
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