2015 Spring RFO Results

nulio

Diabloii.Net Member
Congrats to all the crazy people here! Amazing achievs and godly scores!

I am now only a mortal, I can live out the rest of my days in peace knowing that Gripphon is watching over me (hmm this a bit creepy...), well just showing when help is needed (yeah this is better).

The GC drop made my RFO, rest was meh-ish. Oh wait... LIQUIDCLEAR I GOT A JAH AND YOU DIDN'T! TAKE THAT :p
 

Gripphon

Diabloii.Net Member
It is interesting to compare things with last RFO. Apart from having less participants ofc. I'm going to make comparison based on my scores at last RFO and this RFO.

Last RFO did 2 sets, one of them scored 65.7, other scored 112.3. When you compare those sets with sets from this RFO, difference is obvious, even incredible. Someone might think I have got much better since last RFO and now rocked the world with my sorc. The answer is no, I was pretty much same player before I am now.

My expected score last RFO was in region of 155 points with expectation to find between 15 and 16 qualifiers in 20 hours of playing. This RFO my expected score was in region of 160 points with expectation to find 16 qualifiers in 20 hours. So this RFO my performance was, at least from efficiency part, only miserable 3% better than on last RFO. So this means, even if I put this sorc of mine in time machine back to previous RFO, I wouldn't break 120 points of score in 2 sets. What made difference is luck, as simple as that. With luck from previous RFO I would end on 9th place this RFO regardless of doing 8000 runs in 2 sets. But luck made all the difference.

But how much luck I talk about here? Let's look at that 65.7 score first. Do you even realize how insane that set was? Imagine this sorc of mine doing 3900 runs with total score of 65.7, that is it. That set was as incredibly freaky as third set of this RFO was, just on the other side of the board aka unlucky side of it. Totally funny score. Lets put it another way. My expected number of qualifiers was 15 in 20 hours, right? I needed to find 13 weakest qualifiers aka Mals to achieve that score. 13 - weakest - while average luck brings 15 qualifiers. Hopefully I made it clearer now how incredible that set was, also one of those sets that shouldn't really happen.

Second set, aka 112.3 score. This score was on very unlucky part as well, scoring ~42 points below expectations. So we talk about 2 really unlucky, one insanely unlucky and one very unlucky set from last RFO.

This RFO. First set was on unlucky side, scoring 133.1 when expected score was 160, which is ~27 points below average. But is normal, this set falls under 68% of all results aka inside first standard deviation of normal distribution. So this set was overall normal.
Second set scored 202.2 points, which is 42.2 points above average. If my math is correct, this result is on very edge of first standard deviation so this set was on high side of luck i'd say, but wasn't freaky nor insane nor anything like that, it was highly lucky and that is all, but still normal occurrence.
Third set is a beast obviously with insane luck involved and is above all expectations. I didn't calculate yet how incredible this set was though. To a more interesting note, I do wonder whether this third set was more insane or my first set from previous RFO. My statistical knowledge is too limited to see that at just a glance which of those sets were less likely to happen. Naturally I would say third set of this RFO is less likely to happen cause we all experience dry sessions of running pretty often, so I don't think it is THAT impossible to score 2.4 times below expectations, but who knows. If I happen to calculate that, I will share info.

For example Frozzzen's 171 points score is also high enough on luck scale for his sorc, like 30 points above expectations. But I'm very happy my crobuddy managed to get in top 3 to make sorcs rock this RFO! I see more scores who could be pretty high on luck scale too. See, conclusion is the more players we have, the more lucky sets we will have, pretty logical.
I'm just surprised at Nulio score a little. He did whole 20 hours and... I'm sure his expected score was in 300+ region, I think he took easy on us and shut down his luck for this event. Carelio for otherlio.
 

nulio

Diabloii.Net Member
You stole my luck and I couldn't really compete with my loading times and lazymap. So yeah... Afterhorkers suck, Crosorcs rule!

With p7 and avg ~31s with sorc, what was my expected score, etc?
 

pharphis

Diabloii.Net Site Pal
In terms of standard deviations I think your winning set is less likely because the difference between it and the expected score is bigger than that and your 65.7 score
 

BBS_Agonistes

Diabloii.Net Member
I enjoyed reading about that last set, Gripphon. The outliers are always cool when the come out on the positive side. I tend to be very pessimistic and never expect anything of that sort to happen in general life, much less in a game, so it's very cool to see it when it happens, and the overall performance on the RFO from everyone re-inspires me to come at the game with a renewed hope.
Hannah Arendt said:
 

pharphis

Diabloii.Net Site Pal
I enjoyed reading about that last set, Gripphon. The outliers are always cool when the come out on the positive side. I tend to be very pessimistic and never expect anything of that sort to happen in general life, much less in a game, so it's very cool to see it when it happens, and the overall performance on the RFO from everyone re-inspires me to come at the game with a renewed hope.
even meeee?
 

BBS_Agonistes

Diabloii.Net Member
Anyone running 1.07 Trav inspires me. Someday I'm going to quite being lazy, install that D2 version switcher, and become a real man. :cool:
 

zticazzy

Diabloii.Net Member
Whoa that set Gripph! Insane stuff happened in this RFO! It's great to see these results and the huge effort put by all these players. I'm not complaining about my final position, in fact I was expecting to end fifth or something. I really enjoyed participating, and I was happy to reach my goal of getting Cham (that Darwin sun was a nice touch Gripph), however the ebotd roll kinda devastated me and wiped away all the good vibes I've had during these months of grinding. I must admit I don't feel like playing D2 anymore, that was demotivating on too many levels... anyway, here's my humble haul pic:
Thanks Gripphon for hosting, maareek for supervising, and the others for competing, gg everyone. See you around maybe.
 

Gripphon

Diabloii.Net Member
With p7 and avg ~31s with sorc, what was my expected score, etc?
~ 105 points

Well, remember when we all trolled Grip about how easily he'd crush everybody and how he was guaranteed to win? Yeah, maybe we should not have done that. On the plus side, last year after an inhuman performance in the MFO he put in a remarkably human showing in the RFO (at least comparing it to the current lot, in which my winning score from last year would rank 9th) so perhaps everyone should pile in on the next MFO in hopes of defeating the Croatian Juggernaut?
Allow me to continue that story a little further. My first MFO was pretty good, after that next MFO was bad, then came that fantastic MFO, after that Terrible RFO and after that insane RFO. I guess next is insanely terrible MFO and then insanely insane RFO after that with 500 score etc... Agreed. On a more serious note, I'm not yet sure will I participate on MFO or will I be too lazy at that time. I simply have no real interest in MFO, only in RFO pretty much due to farming reasons.

It is great to see all those haulpics, thanks for sharing them guys. @zticazzy screw the Botd man, even with 350% it is decent and you are gonna love to use it.

Also great supervizing job Maareek, you have put nice effort in everything, even summed runes on RFO, trolled in thread to keep things interesting etc.
 

Codoh

Diabloii.Net Member
Wow, you guys are fkin awesome. ALL OF YOU. I'm currently on a break from D2, but screenshots like those kept me motivated. After my recent Jah (non-RFO) just needed a bit of break, playing something else. My problem is I get burned out fast. I cant realy sit steady 1-2 hours on my ass running Trav. Maybe LK. Not sure how you folks do it...
 

maareek

Diabloii.Net Member
I'm so confused by this. You word the link this way, giving the impression that most of your runs were similar to the image enclosed, so when I see a pic of a(n effective) dual Ral drop I think "wow, Cyrax must've really enjoyed the runs then!" but then you named the image "No. Just no."

Granted, different opinions for different people, but since Ral is one of the most useful finds from Travincal it's one of the things I am actively glad to see when doing those runs, and if my RFO experience mostly felt like getting 2 Rals per run, then I'd have to conclude I had an absolutely amazing event. I mean this was probably my third favorite moment from the last RFO, behind the Cham(my first of them) and the second Ber (Infinity).

On the one hand I am talking about Rals because I'm addicted to them and they're one of my favorite items in the game, but on the other hand what I'm actually talking about are the small rewards we let ourselves have in a large endeavor to stave off stress and frustration. Running hard for 20 hours looking for just high runes and trying to run as efficiently as possible gets to you over time, especially if you're trying for more than one set, and it's important to give your brain a reason to let go of the stress and even fight back with a little happiness along the way. I can't guarantee a Lo+ rune, but Rals drop frequently enough that I know I'll see a decent amount while still being infrequent enough to be worth noticing and are useful enough to qualify as a good find, so they're my motivator of choice for basically any D2 shindig. The exact reason may differ - for Gripphon this RFO it was facets, for nulio it was pgems, etc. - but just running to win is pretty hopeless overall, especially if you consider that even the mammoth, insane, incredible amount of lucksacking that went into Gripphon's third set could've been put to shame by a single (albeit ridiculously unlikely) qualifier from 1.07, and so I think it helps everyone to have smaller goals to help them stay motivated and excited along the way.

So that started off as me just being like "hey guys I like Rals" in sort of a jokey way, but I decided to turn it into a sort of runner's theory type thing just in case that's helpful to somebody going forward. Like, in D2 and basically anything it pretty much sucks to look at the goal and nothing else, it helps to set up little rewards along the way for yourself. And it's not like anything in D2 is actually important, but some people did mention in their PMs that they stopped running because they got bored and I wanted to take a minute to go over some of the ways those of us who do a lot of runs avoid getting bored. That's not to say that they weren't doing that and just getting bored because they didn't like it (I don't think there's a technique in the world that would keep me from getting bored with LK runs, for instance) but I figured I'd say just a thing or two in the way of maybe helping somebody just in case, since I got on that particular train of thought.

@Cyrax: hopefully none of that comes across as having a go at you about anything, was just making a bit of a joke in your direction and then I sort of meandered off on a tangent (as I'm wont to do.)

@BBS: People do often compare me to a sun baby, and by "often" I mean "never," but I assume that's just because they're afraid it might be taken as an insult. ;p

@Thyiad: I think we should just institute a standing "mini-RFO" policy for slow work days. Highest rune wins.

As for myself: being the supervisor was cool and all, but I sort of wish I would have ran. Of course I would've been crushed under foot by the CroDuo, but without knowing about their insane exploits it would've been fine and given the way things turned out it would've been cool to have personal results to compare between an "unlucky" RFO (which even at the time the last RFO seemed like) and a "lucky" one. It's sort of strange, but good luck and bad luck (or statistical outliers, to give them a less esoteric name) do have a tendency to clump together and comparisons are cool.

Speaking of numbers, I'll spout off a little more about them, in the form of comparing the ones from this RFO to the last one, just because they've been on my mind for awhile now (jeeze, I can't imagine why I've had numbers on the brain recently...).

Code:
Number of competitors with qualifiers (2014): 16
Number of competitors with qualifiers (2015): 26

Total number of runes (2014): 103
Total number of runes (2015): 238

Percentage of scores over 100 in 2014 RFO: 18.75
Percentage of scores over 100 in this RFO: 30.77 (34.62 if you count Cyrax's 99 as close enough.)

Median score (2014): 67.05
Median score (2015): 78.4

Mean score (2014):  62.41
Mean score (2015):  90.20

Most common qualifier, as a percentage of total qualifiers (2014): Mal, 26.21
Most common qualifier, as a percentage of total qualifiers (2015): Um, 19.75

Least common qualifier, as a percentage of total qualifiers (2014):  Ber/Sur/Cham, 2.91
Least common qualifier, as a percentage of total qualifiers (2015):  Ber, 2.52
After I started to get results in I got somewhat curious and did a little thought experiment about what sort of final standings I might expect in so I went back to the previous RFO and dug around for the amount of time people ran and all that jazz. I ended up guesstimating 15 hours per entrant for that event which I then plotted forward by getting a number of hours per drop for each rune from the 2014 results and ended up with this horribly depressing expectation for this RFO:

Code:
4.3 Chams
8.7Jahs
4.3Bers
4.3Surs
5.8Los
5.8Ohms
20.2Vex
7.2Guls
23.1Ists
39Mals
26Ums
which does outstrip our actual findings in both Mals and Ists but, I think we can all agree, does seem much less exciting than where we ended up, though, to be fair, the average hours per entrant for this event was much closer to 18 than 15 (~470 total hours as opposed to ~390, which still only adds most of a Cham/Sur/Ber, ~1.5 Jahs, etc. based on the numbers I was using).

And, lastly, a heartwarmingly depressing little bit of statistics:

Gripphon: 166.9 current score at half point. 320 incoming.
maareek: even with 320 that averages out to 166.66 for all the results from both rfos ;p

Gripphon: 320 wont happen ofc :p 200+ might
maareek: yeah, it's not even certain 200+ is more unlikely than 65 if your ev is 165
Actual average for all of his RFO results? 161.18. Basically right in line with the expected value at his run times. I hinted at this post I made before the RFO, at the time meant as trolling, with an excerpt in the results, but I'll include the bulk of the post now in earnest admiration of his abilities.

Grip winning this and having both the MFO and RFO title would mean we could just create a single event called the Griplympics in which Grip runs targets chosen at random with characters chosen at random and would still show he could do so more efficiently than anybody else could run any other target with any other class. I, for one, would welcome our new Croatian overlord.
One post script, in the way of a little reward for sticking with me so long.

Congrats Grip. No surprise of course!
Fabian: I'm sure Grip will post a Cham Cham Jah Ber Ber Sur Sur Sur Sur Sur Sur Lo result
Psychicbian (almost) confirmed.
 

Cyrax

Diabloii.Net Member
I'm so confused by this. You word the link this way, giving the impression that most of your runs were similar to the image enclosed, so when I see a pic of a(n effective) dual Ral drop I think "wow, Cyrax must've really enjoyed the runs then!" but then you named the image "No. Just no."
As you may or may not be aware of rals are not qualifiers. So totally not helpful during RFO. ;)

@Cyrax: hopefully none of that comes across as having a go at you about anything, was just making a bit of a joke in your direction and then I sort of meandered off on a tangent (as I'm wont to do.)
I didn't read anything that i thought i should be offended by, so don't worry. Not to mention you'd have to try harder if you really wanted to. :cool:

You were meandering quite a bit indeed. Started clearly with the rals and you went all over the place from there. I do get your point though.

For me the situation is different than yours however. I like crafting (which is why you're picking up rals i presume) too. However i don't have enough of the other resources to do so. All my pgems go into rerolling Baalcharms. So i could save up rals, but i'd have no use for them. At least not until i've rerolled my hundreds of Baalcharms or have gotten tired of doing so. (Note: In MP i do pick them up as i know i can use them for trading and don't have so many Baalcharms to reroll.)

Your point about everyone having different goals besides runes in the RFO is for me only partially applicable.
I did have different goals besides the runes. Mostly sets/uniques to improve perfect (eth) grail. However i know i could very well run 40 hrs without any other goals than getting as much qualifiers as possible. After all i have plenty experience with bulk running a target *cough* Baal *cough* where there's only the occasional lucky find and the best way to play is to turn off your brain. So i acknowledge that i'm most likely one of the very few people who could run without any alternative goal.
Percentage of scores over 100 in this RFO: 30.77 (34.62 if you count Cyrax's 99 as close enough.)
If we're gonna say that 99 is over 100, than i declare myself a winner as 120 > 292,6. Close enough, right? :p

@LiquidClear Doesn't everyone? :rolleyes:
 

bodry

Diabloii.Net Member
Congrats to the winners! Zticazzy don't give up, the next BOTD will be surely better! :)

RFO was fun and I'm proud of myself, because I could manage to do the whole 20 hour set in just four days, sadly didn't have more time. I was the de facto average of he olympics, by scores. What really made me angry was my runeluck, according to Puls and Lems, and the 7,5 hour long dryspell in the most critique times (from 12th hour to 19,5 hour mark). If only those high non-qualifiers could have turned into something higher, meh. Cham wasn't found too, so next RFO, count me in!
Anyways here is a runehaul, to objectify my misluck:
Screenshot030.jpg
 
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Gripphon

Diabloii.Net Member
Well my view on rolling charms is rather bad because of how incredibly hard it is to roll a good charm at a first place, and secondly what impact does such charm really have on a character. That's why I mostly use gems to craft rather than using them in rolling charms where my chances are much lower to get something useful or good.
That is especially true for amethysts. Using 300 amethysts on rolling charms gives you incredibly small chance to roll something good. On the other hand, using those 300 ammies to craft 300 amulets, you are practically bond to find at least 1 or 2 good useful amulets.
 

thefranklin

Diabloii.Net Member
Congrats to the victors! What a boring blowout...

Now my complaints:
I can't see the results on tapatalk, it doesn't allow a spoiler in a spoiler.
After the first 7 hours of running I had as many 5/5 lite facets as qualifiers (1).
I increased my run times by 15% and ran almost 2x as much (and at p3 instead of p1), and just barely beat my last year's score. It would have been worse had I not found my only high rune (sur) in the last 40 minutes of running. I ended up doing 19:20.
My score adjustment for the Bers/Jahs that I couldn't see was denied. I am sure I missed about 240 points worth of runs, putting me around 310 and in first place.
Also, I found an ohm right before this shindig started. It helped me make a greif, but the time between my ohm and the start was only like 30 minute of running. So that puts my personal adjusted score at 320.

My non-complaints:
I had a lot of fun playing, thanks for the motivation! I found 313 pgems, so in Griph's new rune store is like 30 Los.
Good job to the Blizz sorcs! It is still amazing that people are finding new and better ways to play this game after all of these years. The thought and planning that you guys do and what you accomplish is nuts, congrats!
I found a 5/5 lite facet! Only 4 total facets. I picked up 189 other jewels and not one is useful. What a waste of time. Wait, this should be in the complaints section...
I found 12 skillers, so that is cool! 2 pally combats, so that will help my future hammerdin with my new enigma! And 2 Hexing gcs...
17 Hel runes, never have enough of those!
40 Rals! Not sure what these are for, but everyone else picks them up...
I found Sanders Cap, so now I don't have to pick up a Green Cap ever again!
Got to grail -52 (which is grail -50, I don't count separate facets)

So thanks again for the motivation to do some good running.
 
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