We had some fun kicking this topic around a few weeks ago (no one then believed that Diablo 3 could come close to Modern Warfare 2’s record debut sales) so here’s a sort of follow up, courtesy of Attack of the Fan Boy. They quote “Wedbush Morgan game analyst Michael Pachter,” from a video interview in which he projected massive initial SC2 sales and extrapolated those to Diablo 3.
…on Starcraft II I think that they will sell around 4-5 million units quickly and I think that they will sell 9-10 million units eventually. I think the game will have a very long online multiplayer life.?
Pachter went on to say that he expects the same kind of success from Diablo III upon its release.
?Diablo is not going to come out for a year at least, probably two since there are two Starcraft expansions to come out, but even that will sell the same kind of numbers, maybe slightly smaller because Diablo doesn?t have the same online player fanbase that Starcraft does,? he said.
?But you will still see 4-5 million units sold right off the bat.?
The blog post is highly critical of Pachter’s projections, which appear to be based on nothing more than semi-wild guesses. You may wish to join them in their skepticism… or not?