In a recent hotfix Blizzard slipped in a mention of improved drop rates for the cache-only Legendary Items from Horadric Caches. There were no details of just how much of a buff it was, and a lot of fans didn’t notice it sneaked into the hotfix list.
You’ll definitely notice it in game though, if you’re hunting a RoRG on Torment 2+, since the drop rate is now 50% on T2 and it scales up to 100% on T6. Legendary Horadric Cache Drops Mega-Buffed:
Blizzard said that now the chances are highly increased on Torment .. I have done couple of T3 .. now with friend T6 bounties .. about 10 cahces .. no ring at all.
Vaneras: There is no list of drop rates on specific items that can drop from Horadric Caches, but it is correct that we increased the legendary drop rates overall in a recent hotfix. Wyatt Cheng elaborated further in a tweet that the chance of legendary from bounty cache goes from ~50% at torment 2 to guaranteed at torment 6.
Wyatt’s tweet can be seen here:
@uniqlol chance of legendary from bounty cache goes from ~50% at torment 2 to guaranteed at torment 6.
— Wyatt Cheng (@candlesan) September 4, 2014
So the odds now are a 50% chance of a legendary item from each cache on Torment 2, increasing up to a guaranteed legendary from every cache on T6. Since Act One has 5 cache-only legendary items, you’ve basically got a 1/10 chance of a RoRG from every A1 Cache you open on T2, and better odds than that, up to 20% chance per cache on T6. If you want to figure your exact odds over more trials you’ll have to invoke Binomial Distribution, which is disturbingly close to actual math, and even has a wikipedia page covered in gibberish Greek-looking symbols, so I don’t recommend it.
I am curious how the actual odds work, now. Under the old Cache Legendary drop odds it wasn’t that uncommon to get 2 legs from a single cache. I just got that a couple of days ago, playing a new Seasonal Monk who was around lvl 40 when she got 2 legs from the same A3 cache. (On Hard difficulty.) So I wonder what the actual game function is, when Wyatt says 50-100% per cache on T2-T6.
From the previously observed odds, there’s now about a 10% leg drop rate (per cache) from Normal-T1. So it’s basically jumping 5x higher on T2, and then there’s another jump at T6 when it goes up to guaranteed? But does that mean you always get just 1 legendary per cache on T6? Or will you regularly get 2 or 3 at once? I guess it’s like Act Bosses with a new character in story mode, where you get at least 1 guaranteed legendary, but might get a 2nd (or 3rd) randomly? I’m curious to see drop results from people who can harvest a bunch of caches on T6.
Pity there aren’t more useful legendary items from the Caches, to make this buff more useful than just RoRG hunting. Maybe that’s what they should add next season — some more/better legendary items from caches, and from A2-A5? Or some legs or a Set that can only drop from Caches, but without any particular act required? Just to put some incentive on diversified gameplay.