The Diablo RNG Conspiracy


Is it luck? Is it random? Why do they have what I want? All question we may ask as we plow through monsters scouring for our loot. When we find ourselves looking for answers some times we create our own. Several ideas about Diablo’s RNG have cropped up and I have to admit it’s hard not to get sucked into them.

The party theory

The theory goes that playing in a party affect your loot drops. Often one person in the group is getting the lions share, while others get the scraps. People have begun to speculate that this is due to a mistiming with parties. That lucky party member is actually getting some drops that should go to you.  Now i’ve been on both sides of this one and I think it’s really just RNG. I’ve had games where i’ve landed three legs in quick succession and seen others do the same.

Rating: False- you just are more conscious of what is dropping for others, and when you’re on a dry spell anyone else that gets a legs getting more than you.

 

Time played theory

What I am going to attempt to explain over the next few paragraphs is what and how the current drop system works and what you can do to take advantage of it, or just for your own good to better understand how it works and why it works that way.

My theory (which I am confident in being correct) that very little about when a drop occurs is based on “RNG”and the only aspect of RNG is what drops, not when. I believe that drops are completely time controlled to maintain an even flow of legendaries into the game world. What does this mean for you and why should you be upset? It means that no matter how fast, or efficient you are at killing you will on average get the exact same number of legendaries as Johnny casual that kills at 1/10th the rate that you do. How did I come to this conclusion? 16 hours of comparison (small sample size) with a good friend of mines girlfriend who is the very definition of casual. I started to suspect such a system was in place the stronger my character became and a plotting of the last few days of legs in my clans news. My DH is currently top 250 on Dprogress for elite DPS. I can absolutely face roll T1 and T2 so I figured this would be a good testing ground to compare with her. My friends GF was up for the help so we both started running T1’s solo. Her crusader is a 200k DPS tank and she has 0 idea about efficiency or movement speed. She was clearing around 1 T1 / hour(insanely slow on a crusader with no points into movement) compared to my 5-6. Over the course of 16 hours we both averaged 1.5 leg / hr. This was done over 4 sessions of roughly 4 hours of play. This system appears to be in place to balance the no lifers with the casuals as far as gear progression goes.

This is why chest farming and purple farming was so popular before the nerf. They are not on the timer controlled system of drops and had an actual drop %. Using a system like this, the more times you roll the dice the more times you’ll hit big… and that is just what people were doing and were able to bypass the intended drop rate and achieve some really high numbers of 10-20 / hr. And as a result it was more rewarding than actually playing the game (which is what Blizzard doesn’t want so it was consequently nerfed) The more times you killed manglemaw, and the more times you opened a chance the more legs you would get simply for the fact you were spinning the slot machine more times. This chance also increased per level of difficulty which is why it was so much better on T6 compared to T1.

What system are we left with now? The timer system I referred to before. My theory on how it works is this, Each difficulty has an average leg / hour that it attempts to maintain over the long term. Everytime a legendary drop occurs for you it resets to an amount somewhere between 5 seconds and 140 minutes with a higher chance to reset somewhere in the middle, and a lower chance to reset to the extremes (RNG) An example would be something like this:

  • Normal – Master = 1.25 L / Hour over 100 hours would = 125 Legs
  • T1 = 1.5 L / Hour over 100 hours would = 150 Legs
  • T2 = 1.65 L / Hour over 100 hours would = 165 Legs Etc
  • With it probably capping around 2.25 L / Hour for Torment 6 which is why you’ve seemingly seen Legendarys rain from the sky for those able to stay alive in T6.
  • “But Thacker… I’ve gotten 3 legs back to back and blah blah blah”

This is variance, plain and simple. Short term variance built into a system designed to average out over a certain time. This also explains why you can hit 2 packs of goblins in a rift… and not see a single leg drop. If the timer doesn’t permit it, you could kill 500 goblins and not get a drop. Lengendary drops simply aren’t based off a % drop.

But this also brings me to my next point… the “Rested XP Legendaries”

Ask anyone who doesn’t play for 1-2 days… even more. Does their luck suddenly seem better for the first few hours after logging back on? From everyone I’ve talked to… yes it does. Why does this seem to be? The same way that WoW has a rested XP catchup system, so does this game. This also explains why after the “hotfix” everyone was noticing greatly increased drop rates… I believe we were given max “rested” XP as a bonus on the hotfix. I know that for the first night after logging in I got 5-6 legs very quickly and then over the next few days it dwindled down to my current rate. My friend who didn’t log in for 3 days after the hotfix? Also noticed greatly increased drop rates for the first few hours which has now also fizzled to around the 1.5 / hour mark. This also helps explain why a person joining your group and seemingly “taking your Leg drops” might be receiving more than you for that time period. He might have just logged on which would explain him just joining your farm group, and you might be seeing this rested leg system showing off.
Next point will be legendary tiers, and this is the one that bothers me the most. It’s pretty obvious by now that certain items are simply much more common than others. Blackthornes set… certain bracers, gloves and belts…. Along with every other item category has tiers that it can drop. So while the actual droprate is completely controlled by a timer, what you get is most definietely RNG and it’s absolutely worthless for a singleplayer game without economy and in its current implementation, it’s completely out of balance What appears to happen is this:

X amount of time passes and you are now eligible for a leg drop:

  • Ding – Leg Drop
    System Rolls
    Chance for Item to = Normal Legendary / Non Class Specific Set (Blackthornes) 98%
    Chance for Item to = Class Set 2%

Now if Normal Legendary is selected, it then rolls based on a tier system

  • Tier 1 (Saffron wrap, broken promises, gungdo gear) = 50%
  • Tier 2 (puzzle ring, lower class weapons, certain chests / boots etc)= 25%
  • Tier 3 (Mid tier weapons like windforce etc, firewalkers and better amulets) = 12.5 %
  • Tier 4 (Higher end gear such as cindercoat, andariels etc) = 6%
  • Unobtainables (Ice Climbers, Witching Hour, Calamity, Kridershot) = 0.0000000001 %

This system I have a personal beef with, because I’ve looked for a Kridershot over 300 hours / 300 paragon levels and gambled over 25k shards for one. There’s simply no reason I should be locked out from having an item soley by this system. In D2 and D3 I could trade for the item I wanted with someone of = value. The only way to fix this is to make all of the items have the exact same drop potential.

This system simply does not work in a game where trading is not allowed. People WILL get geared, but not everyone will be able to have the gear they want to play with… which is what a diablo game is about. We are ENTITLED to enjoy the game with everything the game has to offer, not be locked behind what the game decides to drop us. Without trading, and without a way to specifically target items you have lost one of the main reasons why the Diablo franchise is so enjoyable. I believe they are completely aware of these problems, which is why Kadala and the rested XP legendary timer exist, to assist those that can’t play all the time have the gear they want.

Is this system exploitable in anyway? Only one… and that is Kadala. Kadala appears to work completely off a % drop rate, but she still holds true to the drop % of the tiers. You might have a 1% chance to roll an item everytime you gamble a slot from Kadala, but you’ll still be fighting against the tier system if you want a certain piece of gear. For every kridershot you see, you’ll see 200 windforces, ravens, and cluckeyes. If you want to really exploit this and get many more legs / hour, simply try the rift it forward community that’s going on right now. Running with that crew I am able to get my 1.5 / 2 legs from rifts, and another 4-5 / hour from leeching rift shards.

Now Blizzard… I totally understand WHY this system is in place. It’s there so the sword and board barb slow farming T5 is able to get the same rewards as the no lifer blowing through T5 and 6 four times as fast. Blizzard seems to feel that if you are able to survive and complete a T5 rift, you should be rewarded just as well as the person that breezes through it. It’s the no man left behind philosophy of game design. Promote build diversity and gear diversity over speed and efficiency. The problem with the community is this… we want to kill as fast as possible and be as efficient as possible… but with this team managing diablo we simply won’t ever get rewarded for that style of play.

That above is taken from Thacker’s thread here. The gist being that RNG is a fallacy and that the time played is what counts. The timer theory hinges on what we heard from Travis day back in January


We added a system in the expansion that tracks the amount of time you spend fighting creatures without finding a legendary and after a certain period of time will slowly start increasing the legendary drop rate. Once a legendary drops for you, actual item not crafting recipe or material, we reset that timer. This is meant to be a safety net so that the random can never be too extreme to the negative end. If players are legitimately going 18+ hours and not seeing a legendary it’s possible that there are some bugs floating around that need to be identified.

And before anyone responds saying TWO HOURS IS TOO LONG! let me say that we know as time goes on and we patch content or players get better gear and find better specs that will not be the reality. Higher difficulties do in fact increase your chance to find legendary items, coupled with people playing in coop also increasing the rate that everyone overall finds items, etc. Our final target is roughly in the 90 minute range for advanced players. This doesn’t factor in crafting items, trading with friends in coop or any of the other means that we already know players can use to accelerate their legendary acquisition rate.

 

From those words came a hundred variants on time based drops. While Travis acknowledges a timer, it is one meant to increase your legendary find chance, not to necessarily  drop you an item every two hours. Another thing to note is what travis detailed for an ideal time for getting a legendary: Once every 90 minutes! To the best of my knowledge I haven’t heard them say anything changing that time. If that’s the case maybe the issue isn’t with RNG but with the goal for gear accumulation from the developers. If we are slated to only see a leg every 90 minutes( and I would argue we see them much more) then of course we are going to question where our drops are.

Tasker’s theory is just that a theory. However, until we get some clarification how drops are really happening, speculation is going to continue to run rampant. Travis was kind enough to lift the veil before, maybe he can yet again?

What is your theory on drops?RNG, Timers, or the Dark lord Cthulhu plotting your insanity by giving you magefists from kadala every time when you are trying to get tasker and theo?

 

Comments

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  1. Last Saturday I ran rifts for 1 hour at a time or until I got 4 legs (usually 45 minutes) and then did split bounties for about 1.5 hours and then rifts again. I was consistently getting those 4-5 legs in 1 hour after doing bounties for about 1.5 hours.

    When I do rifts for many hours at a time, there will be a hot streak and a dull streak… doing bounties in what I theorized would be dull streak time meant I wasn’t wasting my time in rifts as I was going to have a chance at Ring of G. However, it is possible that dull streak could affect the chance of getting a leg from cache, because I think over like 70 caches in the past week, I’ve gotten 1 leg.

    It would be very frustrating if they came out and said yes legs are essentially on a timer. This would mean the filthy casuals have won, and that hardcore is literally just wasting time hoping to not dc and die waiting for your next hot streak once every 3 hours.

    And I would bet you couldn’t just afk for 2 hours to wait for the hotstreak to start up, you probably have to be actively engaged in fighting monsters like they said would be the proposed way of preventing people of figuring out and abusing the timer that may or may not exsist.

    • “very frustrating if they came out and said yes legs are essentially on a timer. This would mean the filthy casuals have won”

      Actually the opposite, since casuals by definition aren’t in the game for as much time as the “hardcore true diablo super awesome sauce crowd”.

      • Yeah, if you’re a member of the “hardcore true diablo super awesome sauce crowd” & can plan D3 for ~40 hrs a week, you’d get significantly more legendaries than I would (with my job, kids & other games) being only able to play ~4-8 hours a week.

        Besides, the additional time you’re not getting legendaries is spent killing monsters/etc which will get you to a much higher Paragon level than me much faster (both of these are fair enough as you’d be playing a lot more & getting “rewarded” a lot more than me).

    • Whatever the case may be for RNG, I do know the hard fact that I play with the same group every night after work and there is indeed the same people that receive drops every night like clockwork, while myself and some others dont. Same time played, same torment levels and yet no matter what the avenue attempted , drops seem to remain great for some, and others shitty. I literally cannot move forward in difficulty with others in my clan and friends because the drops just dont happen, no matter what toon i play. Tell me how that works…..

      • Random luck and likely confirmation bias in your perceptions that you ‘never’ find legendaries when perhaps your rate of finding isn’t much lower than others.

        In any bell-curve distribution of probability, there will always be some who are extremely lucky or extremely unlikely. By definition, it is more likely you’ll be within 1 standard deviation of the average than at these extremes.

  2. Imo, RNG = RNG. No wonder so many theories sprout from it…

    • I’d be interested in seeing studies on the belief systems people come up with after being subjected to a RNG. Some people form elaborate religions around this type of stuff.

      • Perhaps you’ll find something of interest here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia

      • I watched a science lecture this week seemed like it was really going to hit on this topic. It didn’t quite, but he did talk about a lot of RNG misconceptions.
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAt27VwavJ8&index=29&list=PL8B9808CBC74AB71F

        Gambler’s fallacy is a very common one, where people think something is due to happen, or their luck is about to change, or they’re on a hot streak. Just because you flipped heads 5x in a row doesn’t mean the 6th flip has any weighted odds for Tails.
        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

        Another common one that crops up in RNG conspiracies is “the fallacy of small numbers.” Where people have insufficient data to draw any sweeping conclusions. That generates multiple forum posts a day, where someone found 6 legs in a game, or found zero legs in 6 games, and in both cases they’re sure this is indicative of something… when the total legs dropped that day are probably within .001% of the designed frequency, if you could only see the total drops for everyone playing.

        As people schooled in probability often point out, a 1 in a million event occurs… for more than 300 people per day in the US, and 6500x a day world wide. There are a lot of “miracle” level improbable events occurring every hour in Diablo 3.

    • When there is not enough data, people tend to invent enemies, gods and conspiracy theories.

  3. there was another post in a topic that got deleted with a slightly different theory that claimed there are 3 ‘pools’ from which you can get a legendary:

    – pool 1 – timer based, will give you a legendary every 1.5h-2h
    – pool 2 – no timer, ‘true’ RNG but extremely low chance of drop
    – pool 3 – chests – also no timer, also ‘true’ RNG, slightly higher drop chance

    pools 2 and 3 are responsible for breaking the 2 legs per hour barrier and have +100% chance of drop in rifts.

    off all the conspiracy theories this is the one i find most plausibl (+the rested XP thing, but this one is quite obvious and actually has been around since pre-2.0).

  4. The first thing I thought after reading about the drop timer was “if there’s timer that increases drops if you’re unlucky, is there’s a timer that decreases drops if you’re lucky?”.

    Thacker’s hypothesis is certainly persuasive, but until I see a blue confirmation I’m still going to write it off as superstition. To me such a system seems like a convoluted solution to something that’s not really a problem, since desirable drops are seemingly regulated by a quality system (like the one he mentions) anyway.

    “Another thing to note is what travis detailed for an ideal time for getting a legendary: Once every 90 minutes! To the best of my knowledge I haven’t heard them say anything changing that time.”

    I think they later (after much complaining by the community) lowered the timer to 60 minutes. I’m on my lunch break so I don’t have time to track down the source, but it should be out there somewhere (b.net forums most likely).

  5. I have an idea Blizzard:

    Get rid of the timer, and drastically, drastically increase legendary drop rates across the board, especially on Rift bosses and Act bosses.

    “But then you’ll gear up in a week!” I’ve already geared up in a week. What is your definition of “gearing up?” “But you’ll have all BIS stuff.” BIS compared to what? To whom? To which build? BIS to just destroy T6 like a truck with no brakes? That’s not anywhere close to happening. For anybody. The RNG in this game is so compounded and layered and prominent that the drop rates need to be insanely high to actually let people find upgrades. I just am not that into the game to play as long as they want us to to be able to get the BIS stuff. It’s not even that “fun.” So many things that need to be fixed, and majorly gigantically increasing legendary drop rates across the board will fix 90% of it.

  6. I don’t think that theory is correct. Today I found 6 legendaries in 30 minutes. SIX legs – 4 in 1 rift, 2 in the next rift. One of them being an amulet that heals you for 20% of arcane damage received (super rare).

  7. I’ve always been suspicious of the 90 minute target Blizzard mentioned, saying it the way they said it makes me suspect there is an upper limit to how quickly you can find legendary items through consistent play.

    Why does Blizzard want/need to “limit” players’ ability to find items too quickly by directly saying they want people to find one lego on average every 90 minutes through consistent play? Why is there a time metric in the first place?

    Pure randomness doesn’t fit something that was clearly defined by Blizzard… weighted and selective RNG however…

    • You hit the nail on the head.

      There’s no point to limiting drop rates whatsoever. None. They don’t make any extra money off of the game being boring and bland, but by the contrary, if the drop rates are drastically increased across the board, people will play it, tell their friends about it, and those friends will buy it, or return to the game and then buy the expansion. I don’t know what they are thinking. It’s like they’re on some sort of power trip that they are afraid to lose grasp on.

  8. At least this hasn’t changed about the franchise. I remember reading “game seeding” theories on the official Diablo Strategy Forum for the first Diablo game. They ranged from simplistic to quite elaborate, although I don’t remember any specific ones at the moment.

    I didn’t believe in them then, and I don’t believe in them now.

    • I have no idea where the article is now, or even if it was a Diablo game, but I remember being able to freeze the system clock and (game X) would consistently generate the same levels and loot drops every new game. The seed number has to come from somewhere, after all.

      • Yip. D1 RNG was based only on the system clock. Freeze the clock and you’ll get the same dungeons, monsters and loot each time.

        D2 in single player had a ‘feature’ where the levels layouts would be static over multiple run-throughs. Interestingly it seems that some aspects of the loot drops were also tied into the level layout itself. I really noticed this in Act 3, which had quite a high number of chests, particularly in the Kurast Bazaar area. The base items dropped from some chests were identical across games, except for the item quality. Eg, a particular chest had a pretty high chance of dropping a breast plate, often it would be white or grey, sometimes magic or rare, and a couple of times I got Isenhart’s Case (of course). Sometimes it didn’t drop anything, but when it did, it was a breast plate.

  9. “Everytime a legendary drop occurs for you it resets to an amount somewhere between 5 seconds and 140 minutes with a higher chance to reset somewhere in the middle, and a lower chance to reset to the extremes (RNG)”
    So there is no RNG, only timer but timer’s value is decided by RNG? Lol.

  10. From my personal exp, it seems to be around 2-3 legs an hour. Yesterday I got 2 legs in less than a minute, lol, but that happened only once.

    The prospect for the Unobtainables though is very disappointing. How am I ever going to get that IK set? 🙁

  11. I enjoy clearing my favorite areas rather than running rifts. That play-style has been deemed too lowly and rifts were made much more profitable with the 100% legendary drop increase rate.

    In diablo 2 I very much enjoyed running my favorite areas because it was fun and profitable, I never felt pressured to run just one single area like I do now with diablo 3 rifts.

    The biggest reason for this was runes, charms, and jewels. The faster and better you cleared the more you found, this made running your favorite areas worth it.

    I though they would steer clear of the d2 “hurry up and gimmie uniques” boss running mentality with d3, but it seems they essentially did the same thing with rifts.

    They really need more item types in this game to go out and search for, this game needs a fully fleshed out “smaller item” system. Make these items found by clearing map areas (non-rifts)efficiently.

    I really want other play styles to be rewarded other than rift blasting…..

    • On top of this I really do feel like the above theory it true as I had the same experience when 2.0 first went live. I simply cleared my favorite area as fast a possible and I found more legendaries doing that than I ever have in ROS.

      I had multiple 6-12 leg days doing full clears. Time played seemed to amplify this.

      Now it seems like I find the same amount no matter how or what I play and it seems to revolve around rifts. Everything else is just horribly lagging behind.

  12. All the people claiming they got 15 legs in 2 hours, cool, you’re still not seeing the big picture.

    Here’s the way D3 system is setup (actually just like in wow)

    Play for 2 hours – get 100% of drop potential
    Play for 4 hours get 200% drop potential…. umm nope, I’m lying, it’s actually around 120% drop potential.
    Play for 6 hours. You guessed it, about 130% drop potential.

    The more you play, the more legs you get. But diminishing returns kick in fast, so it actually doesn’t matter much if you play 2 or 6 hours.
    Same thing in WoW, if you spent 8 hours clearing hardmodes, you only get slightly better get than those who clear normal in 2 hours.
    Problem is, WoW drops are set in stone. D3 are random. That creates a ****storm of “this noob casual played for 2 hours and got soh, I played for 2 weeks straight and never saw it”.

    Blizz “smart loot” is basically them ****ing with the drop system. It’s not random.

    Want to test it out yourself? Play 2 hours a day every day for a week, run only T1 rifts solo and nothing else. Record your leg drops.
    Then play 4 or 6 hours a day every day for a week, same thing T1 rifts only solo and compare your drops. I will eat my shorts if you get more than 20-30% more leg drops by doubling or tripling your playtime.

    They have a soft cap on drops. Anyone who plays more than 6 hours a day will notice this pattern.

  13. “Rested XP Legendaries”

    I haven’t taken a break long enough in the expansion to experience this yet, but I can say I have experienced this in the past on so many occasions, I started to become suspicious.

    In fact, sometimes I would purposely play something else for a week or two before coming back to DIII, just because the drop rates in my game would appear to skyrocket the first couple of hours after I came back. Legendary drop rates would then start to dwindle again. I’d play for maybe a week, and there would be a very marked difference between the drop rates at the beginning of the week compared to the end of the week.

  14. A month or two months ago, Blizzard said they are not certain about what to do – make another add-on or make Diablo 4.
    I’d say, they better be making Diablo 4 with completely different item and stat system, because this one is beyond repair.

  15. QUOTE

    I watched a science lecture this week seemed like it was really going to hit on this topic.  It didn't quite, but he did talk about a lot of RNG misconceptions. 
    
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAt27VwavJ8&index=29&list=PL8B9808CBC74AB71F
    Gambler's fallacy is a very common one, where people think something is due to happen, or their luck is about to change, or they're on a hot streak. Just because you flipped heads 5x in a row doesn't mean the 6th flip has any weighted odds for Tails. 
    
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
    Another common one that crops up in RNG conspiracies is "the fallacy of small numbers." Where people have insufficient data to draw any sweeping conclusions. That generates multiple forum posts a day, where someone found 6 legs in a game, or found zero legs in 6 games, and in both cases they're sure this is indicative of something... when the total legs dropped that day are probably within .001% of the designed frequency, if you could only see the total drops for everyone playing. 
    
    As people schooled in probability often point out, a 1 in a million event occurs... 300x a day in the US, and 6000x a day world wide.  There are a lot of 1 in a million events every day in Diablo 3.
    And if that 1 in a million event happens to you specifically, daily, for 2 weeks? That's still RNG?
  16. I believe in the rested legendary bonus either as intent or a bug.

    I had over 20 legs in the 4 hours after 2.0.4 went live including 8 St. Andrews Gauge from Kadala. People in chat were shocked. Back to back chests dropped legs 3 times that night while rifting in a party of 4. I was the only one in the party who had luck like this.

    To the RNG is RNG crowed, who says the loot system is correctly coded? Look at all of the other bugs in this game. If I flip a coin and its heads 20 times in a row the most likely explanation is the coin is not balanced/has 2 heads/etc rather than I experienced a million to one event.

  17. I have noticed on several occasions (small sample size) that I have had a drought along with another person in my group. We would get a legendary at the exact same time or within a few seconds. Ie. the same chest, same mob, or a few steps apart from different mobs.

    A guild friend and I have been watching some things as well and his wife only logs in for [u]maybe[/u] an hour each night but consistently gets 2-3 legendaries.

  18. If the timer theory proves true I may truly quit the game. That isn’t some childish rant or threat like you see posted all over the forums, it’s true for a very good reason.

    D3 lacks any other motivation other than striving for efficiency. There is no PVP, there are no \raid tiers\ to progress through, there are no new bosses to kill for upgraded loot. You farm better gear to become more efficient at farming gear. If that drive is removed because I could just as easily kill at 1/10 the speed and net the same results then I would have nothing to strive for. I may still log on once in a great while to clear a rift or 2 with friends but the game would certainly never be the same and will lose most of it’s appeal.

  19. QUOTE

    If the timer theory proves true I may truly quit the game.  That isn't some childish rant or threat like you see posted all over the forums, it's true for a very good reason.  
    
    D3 lacks any other motivation other than striving for efficiency.  There is no PVP, there are no "raid tiers" to progress through, there are no new bosses to kill for upgraded loot.  You farm better gear to become more efficient at farming gear.  If that drive is removed because I could just as easily kill at 1/10 the speed and net the same results then I would have nothing to strive for.  I may still log on once in a great while to clear a rift or 2 with friends but the game would certainly never be the same and will lose most of it's appeal.

    Exactly. That’s why Blizz can’t come out straight about it. They might fix it quietly – casuals who play under 2 hours a day won’t feel a difference, hardcores who play 6 hours + will get rewarded fairly for the time spent and stop flooding the forums with their tears.

  20. All the conspiracies are baseless. The only thing we have to go on is anecdotal evidence, which is almost meaningless in a world with RNG for anything beyond calculating legendaries per time, and the blue post. We can assume everything has a chance at legendary, and that the chance is higher for champions, treasure goblins, resplendent chests, etc. than white mobs and vases. The more you farm, the more legendaries you’ll get. This is pretty much fact. They’ve claimed that there is a boost to legendary chance when you are on a dry spell, but that does not mean the opposite is true. If you kill a pack of treasure goblins, you’ll often see multiple legendaries. When they drop back to back, obviously the time-element is not a factor.

    Casuals do get an advantage because of the timer. It’s not fair to say that they will get the same number of legs while playing less efficiently, but the gap is reduced because of the time bonus. Legendary drop chance could be 0.0001% from whites and 0.001% from champions. After 45 minutes of nothing, that might raise to 0.01 for champions, so the hardcore gamer would have a decent chance of finding one in the next few minutes. If he does, the rate continues to increase for the casual game, so eventually they find one and aren’t far behind. Add a little RNG to this, and it could seem like the drop rate is forced to be equal, but that is probably not the case.

  21. RNG is RNG. However, I am interested in the “rested XP” theory, which I will be able to test tonight since I’ve been playing very little D3 lately. The reason is because, the last time I played after taking a several-day break, my leg drop rate did seem to be quite a bit higher than I was used to. However, had I not read this article, I would’ve continued to write it off as just RNG being RNG. That said, my last “rested xp session” gave me the following:

    6x Legendary Rings
    Captain Crimson Set Plan
    A (1H?) Xbow Plan that was weak and forgettable
    3x Other Legendaries that quickly became Souls

    That said, I’ve NEVER gotten a Legendary from Kadala, and I recently started tracking my gambling results for the thread Flux started. I also have yet to get a Ring of G, but I do have Illusory Boots on my DH (LOVE THESE) and a Pandemonium Loop for my Crusader.

  22. Posted by amifer
    Hey Everyone,

    Did you notice that in the last days the leg drop on Torment 3-5 are much lower than usual?

    usually i have a day 10 – 13 drops , but in the last 3 Day,s per 2 -3 hour´s drop´s 1 – 2 legs.

    Blizzard have any problem´s with the Loot system , or why dropt nothing more on these stages?

    If you have the same problem, have noticed, then I would be happy if you guy´s write your experience from the last 3- 4 day´s.

    Sorry for my bad english

    I notice In the past 2 days I get more drops if I’m wearing black socks. Blizzard MUST have changed something.

    BNET is soo good for finding things that make me lol

  23. RNG is RNG except when it isn’t. Blizzard’s using loaded dice, why else would they hide the exact mechanics involved? Even Vegas is required by law to post their odds in a visible place… VEGAS!

  24. hehe i kinda felt something smells here every time i found 3 legs in a rift while others got nothing and then farmed like idiot for 2 days with zero drops. also this leg spam when i didnt play for a few days. and this broken vsync related 4 man performance. fuk this game. money lost

  25. I feel like I’ve definitely experienced some of the legendary/set “tier” system as quoted. I play mostly on T1 (especially for rifts) and I have only found one of the new class set items and it wasn’t even a smart drop (my DH found a new set gloves for the WD). I haven’t seen any of the old class set items at all…no Tal’s, no Natalyas, etc, so those set items seem to be much harder to find as well.

  26. I don’t really know what to say to all of these theories. Drops are consistently scattered. Normally I get 1-2 legendary items every other rift. This increases with the speed of my group. Faster groups get my legendaries faster, and it is a very simple equation.

    (Chance to find a legendary item) * (Delta over time drop increase) * (Average of “high value” occurrences completed over a period of time – i.e. Elite, Champion, Resplendent Chest, Goblins, Rift Guardians) = Chance to find a legendary item.

    I hold all “high value” as an average because they have the highest chance for a legendary item due to their bloated loot chances. For instance, Rift Guardians have the highest chance out of all of those to drop a legendary because it has a guaranteed # of drops that exceeds its counterparts. by averaging out all of the primary targets, you get a better idea of your drop rates.

    But as you can see in the equation, speed of killing high value targets results in more legendaries regardless of delta values because it increases the number of kills, chests, etc. I think this isn’t a point that can be disputed. More kills = more items that drop = more chances for a legendary.

    Now, as you play and the % chance for a legendary drop increases, if you are killing faster than your buddies who are slower in another game, then you can postulate that you will get a drop at an earlier delta value than one who is killing slower.

    Note: this is still % based. There will be outliers. There will be times of feast and famine. But if you track this equation over time, you will find that average legendary items gained over time increase based on your number of “high value occurrences” – which is directly related to your clearing speed.

    • yeah Nizaris, that’s a good argument but a giant tortoise carrying the world on it’s back and wandering through the starry skies is way more entertaining than physics. When it comes to entertainment, the tortoise always trumps math. And you can take that to the common core STEM based educational bank:)

  27. Apophenia (the human brain’s tendency to see patterns where there is none) has already been mentioned once, and is important enough to be mentioned again. If someone really cared to test these theories, it shouldn’t be too hard to do, but until a statistically significant finding is presented I choose to believe the conspiracy theories to be plain ol’ bs

    All the theories around loot have one thing in common, and that is that they are based on anecdotes. Any test that is done will have to be decided on before the playing session starts, to avoid cherry picking of data and confirmation bias, and will need to have a sample size big enough to draw statistically significant conclusions (which basically means testing the results to find out how likely they are to be the result of random variation).

    As for my own anecdotes, I picked up my monk today after a few days break. He’s not well geared and uses a long time to clear each rift. After two-three hours of rifting (perhaps 3-4 rifts) his return was zero legs. Hows that for \rested legendary xp\?

  28. anybody ever found say, 50-60 legendaries in one day? or maybe heard of such occurrence?

    with all the people playing D3 someone had to have a lucky day, right?
    if really it’s just RNG and there is no timer then that should be perfectly possible.

  29. 60-90 minutes for 1 legendary? That shows how out of touch Blizzard is. Even if it had a 0% chance of being BT set or a 2 hander or any other auto soul, that’s still terrible. It used to be 4-6 a hour, on average (most of which would be auto brims of course, but aside from souls being the new brims how’s that different from now).

    That said rested XP is a thing, I’ve definitely noticed it. The timer is a thing as well, as it hardly seems to matter if I derp about or play seriously. Hell, most of my stars, including most of the Torment onlys fell outside of Rifts despite doing hundreds of the damn Rifts.

  30. First of all, I believe that RNG is RNG, except for this time it isn’t JUST RNG.

    Since 2.0, the game has a SMART DROP System, since this system is applied, the game is no longer 100% RNG.
    There are theories on RNG in computer is not fully RNG, therefore it needs to use something that is random to generate the random numbers.
    This is where the theory of loot servers come in. Because people believed that the RNG is based on something to servers.
    Then what they do is play games to see whether certain servers has higher drop rate.
    It is supersitious, but they trial and error the concept.

    Back to Smart Drop, this time with smart drop, blizzard has intended to design the drop rate so it benefits the player.
    Having that in mind, the question is, how does the system(black box) works?
    Out of all the possible drops, the drops are tailored to drop to your classes (most of the time)
    And from more observation, the game usually drops the same PART of item consecutively.
    It is not rare for a player to drop 3 rings in the same game.
    RNG is RNG, but still, what are the odds when you have picked up 6 belts in 2 rifts?
    By observation, I speculate that the smart drop system will determine what your character needs,
    and try to provide an upgrade for that particular item.
    Having said that, this is where RNG takes place, it will give you an item that is the worse on your character,but not necessarily better.
    On top of that, we do not understand how the game decides what is your worst gear, but if you are wearing dex on your WD, that piece will drop more.

    So, what really is Loot 2.0’s Smart Drop system?
    It is controlled RNG. It is a filter to make RNG work in favour to you.
    Put it in Vegas, or layman’s term, it is CARD COUNTING, accept this time, it is counted BY THE DEALER.
    So, if this is the case, how does this work with the \Time Played Theory\? (from now Abreviated as TPT)
    And why does the \Time Played Theory\ makes sense?

    Let’s talk about philosophy, by this I mean Blizzard’s.

    Simply put, Blizzard wants to cater the casual gamers, yet does’t want to upset the hardcores.
    How is this achievable in Loot 2.0? Smart drop is already one.
    Smart Drop essentially tries to deal the cards you need to you.
    TPT on the other hand, tries to deal you cards when you haven’t been winning much.
    On top of that, TPT will deal better cards to new comers and to rare players. (\rested\ drop bonus)

    Let’s go into details for each.

    TPT deals you a legendary when you have not been winning much:

    Look at a blue’s post:
    Time tracking, no legendary after X period of time of killing mobs, starts increasing MF for legs.
    It is as clear as it could be, even the \X\ is given to us. 90 minutes.
    What this means is you are gareenteed a legendary \after\ 90 mins. Not every 90 mins.
    This is to control RNG to not act extremely-BAD.
    Back in D3V, RNG works like this: total RNG, you can drop no legendary in your entire life in D3.
    This is what blizzard is trying to avoid.
    For those who say this destroys the core of Diablo and loses motivation and QQ and quit, stay awhile and listen.
    Just because you are gareenteed a legendary every 90mins, doesn’t mean you will get it, but you will soon.
    On the other hand, if you are actively playing the game, you will get more legendaries!
    If you are playing outside of rift, this works very well. In roughly 90 mins you get legendary.
    AFK farmers will know, if they sleep 7 hours, they will have 3 legendaries and wake up with another soon.
    If you are playing, you might get a bit more because you are opening breakables and you are actively killing more mobs.
    But what about rifts? Droprates are doubled…so you would get a legendary roughly every 45mins or an hour.
    If you don’t believe me, you can try out yourselves, but I believe most who play enough will know this seems to be the case.
    Then, the next part…

    TPT and \rested\ drop bonus:

    It occurs to me that this is actually quite a common thing that happened between all players. Everyone is talking about it.
    Does it make sense? Perfectly, it’s Blizzard’s Philosophy all over again, to help the casuals.
    That’s really it. Superstitious or not, you will know if you have friends who have a strict working schedule.
    But there is more, what if I told you…lower Paragon characters has higher drop rates for the same reasons?
    Simply put, this is WOW’s system of leveling new character to 90 catch up thing.
    When ROS released, a lot of old players came back and within weeks they have way better 70lv Items then I do.
    Most of the players that I played with (who didn’t quit like others) didn’t gear as much either.
    What are the common factors between them and us?
    Well those who gear as much has 2 common factors:
    1. We have awesome Gear from D3V, (Witching Hour, Scorn, Full Sets, compare to just a few legs with lots of yellows)
    2. We have considerably higher Paragons.
    (compare to their paragon 10s, we have 140+ at start of ROS)(PS some friends have 200+)

    And this doesn’t stop after the first week, some players who start late join our party with low paragon, still gets more legendaries.
    This usually explains why someone is hogging all the legendaries when someone gets non. Try to observe the Plvls, and see for yourself.
    This also brings us to another topic:

    Gear Tiers…?

    This is yet another theory in TPT, but I also stand by this theory. On the last paragraph I basically said this:
    \Old D3V core players has tougher time getting new good legends because of their GOOD gear\
    Why does your good gear stop you from getting new good gear, this following is my theory.

    Consider that Smart drop will always want to give you items at your level.
    Consider that Smart drop knows that good gear is good.

    What does that leave us?

    This is what happened, you gear most of your items to 70, most with better rolls on them.
    you have a new weapon because the base damage is higher and it has 70 rolls on them.
    Except…you can’t change your old Witching Hour. Which is probably the one hardest to upgrade item ever.
    Old Inna Pant’s speed is good, but can’t beat higher main stats.
    Back to Witching Hour, which has Speed, and it can roll AR , although it has low VIT, Armor is possible.
    Last but not least, that CRIT DAMAGE, no matter what level you are, that CRIT DAMAGE is set.
    The new Witching Hour has similar CritDam on it, so the only option is get the new Witching Hour and…what are the odds?.
    So this is the dilemma for us players, who have had most gear changed to 70, but a few 60 gear.
    The game obviously thinks the Old Witching Hour is good, otherwise it would drop belt all over the place.
    But the game also recognise the belt is only a 60 item.
    The sad thing is, you will keep dropping the items in the same drop table.
    The way to move to another tier (by changing the drop table) is to drop the lv60 Witching Hour for a lv70 belt,
    Once you have an upgrade for that (until the game no longer continously drop belt).
    Then, you are possibly in the next tier, or more likely ready to get into the next tier.
    This is where you start getting better (next tier) items.

    Drop Table and Real RNG

    Last paragraph I talked about drop table. It is possible for WD to drop Monk sets, the question is:
    If smart drop is so smart, why would my WD drop Storm and Inna’s (And yes, I did drop them)
    The answer is, RNG is RNG.

    Smart Drop is no more than a filter. This is why I said Smart Drop is the card dealer.
    Just because the Card Dealer is trying to get you what you need, doesn’t mean chance can’t take a strange turn.
    Just because the dealer is trying to get you an Ace when you need it, and while most of the time he deals you high numbers to get you to 20.
    Doesn’t mean it won’t miss, and busted. RNG exists, just it is controlled now, and it wasn’t as controlled (In D3V) as it is now(Loot2.0)
    So what about the streak of legendaries? Well, Black Jack’s 5 card trick. It happens, it gives you legendaries too.
    I want to insist, the gambler fallacy is less relevant because smart drop is an intended function.
    Where in D3V I totally believe RNG IS RNG and I believe Gambler fallacy there, when Blizz say 2.0 is a design with an intention…
    That is NOT JUST RNG.

    The Drop Table (just like the smart drop) can be affected by many factors that alter what and when they drop.
    Such as what we have said above, tiers, paragons, the party you are in, the server, etc etc.
    But there are still lots and lots of factors in the black box that we don’t and probably won’t understand.
    We cannot say that there is no pattern, because we can’t prove there is one, but we can’t prove there isn’t one-yet.
    But RNG will always be a factor too.

    Conclusion
    Most of the paragraphs above only tries to explain a theory, while, it is Apophenia, that is how science works.
    But without apophenia, would people speculate and motivaated to search if it is a fact?
    Much like scientific
    So I hope the theory will help people start to test for more results.
    The important thing is, what does this do to our game play, really?

    What is important is not Apophenia, the more important thing is this system has encouraged the phychology of Gambling.
    You guys can google this, but I will just make it brief here. There are 2 version of this test, but I will put the con conclusion up.
    There are 3 Jars, first with no food, second has unlimited food and the last with food that drops randomly, when food doesn’t drop it recieves an electric shock.
    First Mice stepped on the lever and nothing happened, repeated for a few times, stopped stepping on it since.
    Second Mice keeps on getting food and then it also start to step on it less and less as time grew.
    Third Mice is getting food randomly and also keeps getting shock yet it continues to push the lever.

    Loot2.0 is the third system. And what is D3V?
    D3V is both first and second system, both at the same time. How could this be?
    First, dropping legendary was hard, getting the right ones for your character, harder, getting good stats, even harder.
    This is the same as Diablo2, so what was the problem? The problem was the solution. The solution is getting gear through trading.
    D3 had an Auction House for trading. Ok, let’s ignore AH for the moment, consider AH as a method of trade(economic term) and compare it with D2.
    In D2 trading requires you to be active in the community in order to find the item. Promotes sense of community and it is satisfying.
    Unlike D2, D3’s primary form of trading is the AH, Blizzard provided a safer and easier trading method between players.
    Unfortunately, the system proved to be too convenient, item hunt becomes purchase item. And the Gold Exploits also made it too hard for others.
    For those who have gold, this becomes the case of the second mice, for those who has no gold, this is the first mice scenario.

    Loot 2.0 fixed this, and yet people believe this is RNG and feel lucky/unlucky, that is what Blizzard wants you to think!
    In order for you to be the third mice that keeps on playing the game. For the game, this is healthy.
    But for those who think loot 2.0 has patterns, well…what is the problem?
    Why quit? Because it is fair now? You feel less superior and your hours of play didn’t matter?
    Or it is not fair because casuals can put less effort to get what you get? All the reasons are tied to hour VS reward.
    And that is not exactly how this game works, but still, those who put in more hours do get better compare to casuals.
    A friend of mine who works over time very day still gets lots of legend, he can now farm T2 and can party with us in T3, and maybe challenge T4.
    But compare to those who play longer hours, those who can farm T4, party farm T5, and solo challenge T6,
    It is fair yet not fair. You have more time to play, but they have to work, they have less gear, but you have more.
    Maybe you can level and gear more characters, maybe you have gear choice. But they don’t.
    You farm longer and faster, you will have more capital over those players – FACT.
    Just because people have similar items, doesn’t mean they have the gold and item to reroll into better stats.
    Where your longer and faster farm can slowly and gradually perfect your character, other’s can’t.

    All in all, just because the theory is true, is no reason to quit the game.
    And more importantly, play smart, like we did in D2, knowledge is power.

    • First of all, sorry for the sniping nature of the post. I will try to make valid critisisms on the main points and not argue on the smaller things I disagree with

      \Since 2.0, the game has a SMART DROP System, since this system is applied, the game is no longer 100% RNG.\

      A game can have one aspect RNG-based while another is not. Smart drop makes sure items designed for your class (that is, items with your primary stat and skill boost) more likely to drop. This doesn’t affect mean the LEGENDARY DROPRATE can’t be based on RNG alone. The random number generators of modern computers are algorithms based around making a sequence of numbers that appears random. A human mind will not be able to spot a faulty RNG simply because if it is off, it will be off by fractions of a percent in a huge sample size

      \And from more observation, the game usually drops the same PART of item consecutively. It is not rare for a player to drop 3 rings in the same game.\

      There are many of these kinds of statements in your post, and they all boil down to us seeing patterns that are not there. You saw the three rings, but did you notice that three amulets didn’t drop? Neither did three pants, three offhands or three helmets. This is why it is extremely important to decide what you’re looking for before you start looking. If you keep your mind open to what you might find, you are essentially checking for ALL drops that can cause a pattern, and ignoring the fact that there are hundreds (if not thousands) of patterns that did not occur. If you’re testing for hundred patterns in a data set without patterns, and each have one percent chance of occuring as a false positive, you have a 50/50 chance of finding it.

      \If you don’t believe me, you can try out yourselves, but I believe most who play enough will know this seems to be the case.\

      This isn’t good enough. The person that makes a theory about how something works has the burden of proof. A theory isn’t true because many people believe in it, it will still need to be backed by some sort of evidence (and no, I don’t mean anecdotes)

      \But there is more, what if I told you…lower Paragon characters has higher drop rates for the same reasons? Simply put, this is WOW’s system of leveling new character to 90 catch up thing.\

      What you describe is nothing like wow’s catch up to shortcuts. World of warcraft basically starts on level 90, in the same way that most serious diablo players will say diablo starts really starts on 70. World of warcraft has gear catch up mechanisms however, but they are well known and does not operate in any way that resembles systems in diablo 3 (I am talking about LFR)

      \Old D3V core players has tougher time getting new good legends because of their GOOD gear. Why does your good gear stop you from getting new good gear, this following is my theory.\

      The answer to this is very simple. If you have good gear, the chance of finding an upgrade is lower. This has the side effect of players categorizing more loot as \bad\. Occam’s Razor postulates that if you have two competing theories, the one with the least assumptions should be selected (until proven wrong of course, but here the burden of proof kicks in again)

      \You guys can google this, but I will just make it brief here. There are 2 version of this test, but I will put the con conclusion up.\

      What you are talking about here sounds like a twisted version of classical conditioning. Not sure how I can just google it (keywords?). Any source? Classical conditioning showed that animals who recieved a reward at random were much more vigerous when it came to doing the action that (sometimes) gave a reward, compared to animals who got a reward in regular intervals. In other words, if Blizzard drew any conclusion from this, they would have made the opposite decision of what your theory describes. I am aware there is a stacking buff to legendary drop rate to avoid \dry spells\, so they already showed that they didn’t consider this mechanism in the design of D3

  31. Tiered (aka weighted) RNG just needs to be removed. If you think about it, any manipulation of the loot tables means the loot isn’t random. The game is actively working against players by giving us so many more of the same bad legendaries (lower tiers).

    I’d much rather have a system where, say the game has 200 legendaries, then each leg item has a 0.5% chance to drop when a leg drops. 0.5% is still very low, but this truly random drop system would almost ensure you never get the same bad drops over and over.

    To those who say a non-weighted RNG system would make maxing your gear too easy…well I also think they should do a Smarter Drop system that factors in your CURRENT gear. Give us progressively better items with a purely random equal-chance RNG system.

  32. It boogles my mind to think that Blizzard could think that they could call there drop system RNG. Do they think we are stupid? The answer is yes. They really do.
    This is a stacked system not a random system. It might even be bugged. So it would be a stacked bugged system.

    I always preface my statements that this evidence that we have to prove this bugged stacked system of loot drop from blizzard comes from data that admittedly from a small statistical pool. I take all that back. I’ll never say it again. Bull%$#@.
    Yesterday 14 attempts to change 1 affix on a ring with 8 other affixes than the original. data>> 7 of the 14 rolls had vitally double rolls, 4 times in a row. So half of my rolls were vitally at the top and both vitally rolls to replace it. 3 other rolls had vitally in 1 of 2.Only 4 rolls did not have vitally in 1 of the 2. If you rolled 2 dice and 1 of the dice rolled a 7 10 out of 14 throws, you know what that dice would be? It would be a house dice that was weighted. If Blizzard was making dice for Las Vegas, the place would either be more rich than it is or closed.
    Previous 167 straight chances for a helm with no leg then 3 in a row. Pseudo-Random theory evidence.

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