A statistically-inclined anonymous fan put together a super-useful spreadsheet that shows every legendary and set item in the game and estimates how many Blood Shards each class will have to spend to obtain it. The figures are all updated for Patch 2.1.1’s improved legendary gambling odds, and they seem accurate.
There’s no magic in the calculations. Just take the 10% legendary gamble rate that Travis Day revealed, then multiple that by the Blood Shard price of each item type, and figure out each item’s price by using the weighting in the Diablo 3 legendary item drop tables.
As we’ve said several times, legendary items in Diablo 3 are almost all sorted into four tiers of frequency for drops via smart drop or gambling. They are: common (1/1), uncommon (1/2), rare (1/4), and ultra-rare (1/10) frequency. For instance, since 1/10 of glove gambles yield a legendary or set glove, you just need to figure 1 glove per 500 shards, and then multiply that by the odds of each particular glove for each class. Since everyone always asks about Tasker and Theo, here are those figures. TnT and Frostburn share the 1/10 frequency ultra-rare category, but since gloves aren’t that expensive to gamble and there aren’t that many of them in total, a DH (or Wizard) or can reasonably expect to gamble a TnT within the first 11750 Shards spent on gloves, while it’ll take a WD (or Monk) around 14250. Barbs and Crusaders have longer odds since they have more possible legendary gloves, but neither of the STR classes really wants a TnT anyway. (Beats the 36,000 that guy spent last week, though his luck was below average.)
There are worse odds than that, of course. While all types of armor are pretty easy to get, most types of weapons are much harder. This is especially true for melee weapons since the game (still) doesn’t let you gamble just for swords, or maces, or axes, etc. By holding to a one-handed or two-handed option, all the melee weapons are essentially put into the same huge item pool, which drastically lowers your chances of fishing any particular item out.
The most common gambling complaint I see from players who say Rimeheart is almost impossible to gamble. They’re right. The estimates prices bear that out, with a vigorous 250-307k Shards estimated for a good chance at a RimeHeart, and up around 500,000 to raise your odds to pretty good. Hey, that’s only 5000 T6 Rift runs… what are you waiting for?
The highest estimated prices are for Amulets, since there are so many of them, and they cost so much to gamble. Thus the highest price in the entire game is The Star of Azkaranth, which is also the only item in the game with a frequency set to worse than the 1/10 ultra-rare. Thus the Star of Azkaranth will cost you an estimated 621,000 Blood Shards, with up around 1,000,000 Shards likely required to have pretty good odds of finding one.
Bear in mind that all of the figures are just estimates. You might gamble your dream item on your first try, or never at all. That’s what we all love so much about RNG! For instance, my DH has been gambling chest armors on and off for the last couple of weeks without any luck getting a Marauders. Tonight I thought I’d try some quivers for a change, mostly hoping for an Eminem’s Duffle, since I’ve been experimenting with a Bola Shot build. I didn’t get one, possibly since I stopped after three gambles when I popped the Sentry-spawning Bombadier’s Rucksack, which is 1) the most sought after Quiver, and 2) the only one with the uncommon 1/2 drop rate. I spent 75 Shards to get it, while the estimated prices are 4250/6238.
So yeah, it’s all RNG in the end, but this Blood Shard gambling cost list is a useful reference guide, especially for players who don’t know the legendary items well enough to have general sense of just how uncommon they are, relatively speaking.
I’m curious what strategy players will go with; I’ve been gambling for stuff that has a good chance to roll (armor, mainly) since I want faster upgrades for my new HSea characters. That might be your strategy, or you might be looking long term. If that’s you, and you’re after one particular weapon, you should start gambling for it immediately and trust to monster drops to find your armor.
Credit and thanks to whoever put the gambling price list together. I’d like to give credit, but it’s unsigned and I got the link from a reader news submission, and since then I’ve seen it linked in various forums, but never with an author citation.