Diablo 3 Gambling Estimated Price Spreadsheet: Patch 2.1.1. Updated


A statistically-inclined anonymous fan put together a super-useful spreadsheet that shows every legendary and set item in the game and estimates how many Blood Shards each class will have to spend to obtain it. The figures are all updated for Patch 2.1.1’s improved legendary gambling odds, and they seem accurate.

There’s no magic in the calculations. Just take the 10% legendary gamble rate that Travis Day revealed, then multiple that by the Blood Shard price of each item type, and figure out each item’s price by using the weighting in the Diablo 3 legendary item drop tables.

As we’ve said several times, legendary items in Diablo 3 are almost all sorted into four tiers of frequency for drops via smart drop or gambling. They are: common (1/1), uncommon (1/2), rare (1/4), and ultra-rare (1/10) frequency. For instance, since 1/10 of glove gambles yield a legendary or set glove, you just need to figure 1 glove per 500 shards, and then multiply that by the odds of each particular glove for each class. Since everyone always asks about Tasker and Theo, here are those figures. TnT and Frostburn share the 1/10 frequency ultra-rare category, but since gloves aren’t that expensive to gamble and there aren’t that many of them in total, a DH (or Wizard) or can reasonably expect to gamble a TnT within the first 11750 Shards spent on gloves, while it’ll take a WD (or Monk) around 14250. Barbs and Crusaders have longer odds since they have more possible legendary gloves, but neither of the STR classes really wants a TnT anyway. (Beats the 36,000 that guy spent last week, though his luck was below average.)

There are worse odds than that, of course. While all types of armor are pretty easy to get, most types of weapons are much harder. This is especially true for melee weapons since the game (still) doesn’t let you gamble just for swords, or maces, or axes, etc. By holding to a one-handed or two-handed option, all the melee weapons are essentially put into the same huge item pool, which drastically lowers your chances of fishing any particular item out.

The most common gambling complaint I see from players who say DiabloWikiRimeheart is almost impossible to gamble. They’re right. The estimates prices bear that out, with a vigorous 250-307k Shards estimated for a good chance at a RimeHeart, and up around 500,000 to raise your odds to pretty good. Hey, that’s only 5000 T6 Rift runs… what are you waiting for?

Gambling estimate prices, 1H swords, Patch 2.1.1.

Gambling estimate prices, 1H swords, Patch 2.1.1.

The highest estimated prices are for Amulets, since there are so many of them, and they cost so much to gamble. Thus the highest price in the entire game is DiabloWikiThe Star of Azkaranth, which is also the only item in the game with a frequency set to worse than the 1/10 ultra-rare. Thus the Star of Azkaranth will cost you an estimated 621,000 Blood Shards, with up around 1,000,000 Shards likely required to have pretty good odds of finding one.

Bear in mind that all of the figures are just estimates. You might gamble your dream item on your first try, or never at all. That’s what we all love so much about RNG! For instance, my DH has been gambling chest armors on and off for the last couple of weeks without any luck getting a Marauders. Tonight I thought I’d try some quivers for a change, mostly hoping for an Eminem’s Duffle, since I’ve been experimenting with a Bola Shot build. I didn’t get one, possibly since I stopped after three gambles when I popped the Sentry-spawning Bombadier’s Rucksack, which is 1) the most sought after Quiver, and 2) the only one with the uncommon 1/2 drop rate. I spent 75 Shards to get it, while the estimated prices are 4250/6238.

So yeah, it’s all RNG in the end, but this Blood Shard gambling cost list is a useful reference guide, especially for players who don’t know the legendary items well enough to have general sense of just how uncommon they are, relatively speaking.

I’m curious what strategy players will go with; I’ve been gambling for stuff that has a good chance to roll (armor, mainly) since I want faster upgrades for my new HSea characters. That might be your strategy, or you might be looking long term. If that’s you, and you’re after one particular weapon, you should start gambling for it immediately and trust to monster drops to find your armor.

  • Diablo 3 Gambling Estimated Price Spreadsheet
  • Credit and thanks to whoever put the gambling price list together. I’d like to give credit, but it’s unsigned and I got the link from a reader news submission, and since then I’ve seen it linked in various forums, but never with an author citation.

    Tagged As: | Categories: gambling, Item Sets, Legendary Gems, News

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    1. An average of 4250 shards per Bombadier’s Rucksack, with 4 out of 5 players seeing one after 6838 shards. After about 15k shards dumped into quivers I’ve yet to find one.

      Assuming my 15k shard estimate is accurate, what percentage of players would fail to find a Bombadier’s Rucksack after gambling this amount? It would be interesting to know just how unlucky I’ve been.

      • Keep in mind this is a representation of 2.1.1 drop rates and shard costs.

        • …and using 2.1.1 drop rates and shard costs, there is a 97.1% chance that Rucksack would show up at least once in 15k shards. And using the old drop rates and shard costs, there would have been a 92.9% chance it would show up in the same # of shards.

      • Clearly I am to blame, as I got one yesterday in 3 quiver gambles. So average yours and mine together, and MATH!

    2. Looks like I've only got about 400,000 blood shards to go before I get my claws on a Furnace. Yippee!

      My gambling strategy? Clutch onto my blood shards with my cold grimy fingers and float close to the 500 cap, spending only what I find beyond that, with the expectation we will see some further tweaks to Kadala in the near future that I will get to shovel my stockpile onto. I wouldn't be surprised if, rather than rescind this change to her, they go deeper and remove yellows from the equation altogether and boost the cost 10x again, but with a 100% chance to get a legendary. Then again for that they would have to remove the 500 shard cap, and that's just crazy talk.

    3. I don't understand the grief and gnashing of teeth over the 1h/2h weapon categories.

      This is obvious, but bear with me for a moment. Weapons are THE single most important part of someone's kit. Pretty much everything flows from what weapon you are using. Every other gear or build decision stems from what weapon you are using. Now, think about this in the context of the design goal of Loot 2.0; the whole idea is to play the game and build around what you find, not theorycraft your build before creating the character, and purchase the perfect interlocking set of appropriate item modifiers on the AH. Bear with me as I continue to pontificate:

      It’s fundamental psychology; it’s not about the end, It’s about the journey. The reason Loot 1.0 and D3V sucked so bad was because people could dump some gold into getting the end immediately, skipping 90% of the journey, and the game ceased to be fun. There needs to be that carrot-on-a-string to give players an incentive to keep pushing forward, and it’s in that chase where the game is fun. Gearing up, advancing through Torment, finding that critical item with that amazing roll that makes your life SO much better (thanks Wrath Regen!) is the hook of the game. That’s what keeps players coming back, and is why the playerbase dropped off in D3V when these mechanics didn’t exist as they do now.

      What does this have to do with 1h/2h item categories? Targeted weapon type gambling is too analogous to the AH. Given that the weapon is THE item to have and is THE determining factor in how the rest of your build plays out, it should be stupidly, impossibly, ridiculously frustratingly hard to be able to find. You should NOT be able to target weapon drops. Crusaders would stop jumping for joy when Fate of the Fell drops, Wizards wouldn’t bat an eye when Wand of Woh pops out, and every class would be laughing at the Rimehart with a mediocore damage roll. Gambling, as it stands, provides an excellent means of filling in the gaps of your build, but it should not be the way of determining the focal point of your build. Its function as it stands in relation to how the game design gets expressed in terms of mechanics is excellent: I found Fate of the Fell, setting me up for Holy Shotgun. This build obviously has mega wrath problems, but I had a decent unused Akkhan piece kicking around. Thus, I was then incentivized to gamble for the rest of the Akkhan’s pieces given the synergy between wrath-intensive builds and Akkhan set bonus. Now, I know set pieces are relatively easy to gamble for all of the people searching out TnT’s, Rucksack, etc. but those items function at a build-changing level close to what weapons provide, hence the subsequent comparative difficulty in gambling.

      The criticism levelled at the gambling limitations is a prime example of our entitlement generation not understanding the reasoning behind why the mechanics are set as they are in relation to the game design philosophy. On a superficial level, players may be grumpy about not being to customize their build the way they want it, but subconsciously, this is what makes the game fun and what keeps people coming back. This is why the AH got canned and legendaries became account-bound. For all of the explicitly stated criticism about the mechanics (anti-fun, “x shards spent = nothing to show for it,” “psychology of frustration,” etc) there is a whole lot of implicit approval in the mere fact that we’re all here, we’re all playing, and we’re all posting about it.

      TL;DR = keep 1h/2h categories and do not make it easier to gamble weapons, because science.

      • I should clarify that gambling falls into the "not playing the game" category in the same sense that the AH isn't "playing the game." Yes, you are in-game and spending a resource on an item, but that type of alternate mechanic of obtaining items through resource spending without killing stuff is meant to be a tool, not the end in and of itself. Tying endgame reward to something that should be a supplementary mechanic is why the AH dominated D3v and made it not-fun, since it was the only realistic way of obtaining godly gear.

        Allowing targeted weapon gambling brings gambling closer to an end and a primary focus of play. Grinding rifts for shards so you can gamble weapons, while prevalent, would be made worse by segmenting 1h/2h categories.

      • The "journey", as you put it, is no longer in the leveling or early gearing process, it is now all in your interactions with Greater Rifts (just ask Hardcore players, poor bastards). Greater Rifts have fundamentally changed the game and now gearing requirements are multitudes more strict than before. Currently most builds are determined by what six-piece (or 5 piece in the case of Raekor's) set is applicable to your class along with a Ring of Royal Grandeur. Almost exclusively these are the most powerful builds in the game, and they generally do not require any specific weapon to work as far as T6 is concerned. Marauder's, Firebird's, Jade Harvester's, Raekor's… they don't need any specific weapon to push you to the point where you faceroll T6. It's when you throw Greater Rifts into the mix that you start to feel how worthless having the wrong weapon can be, and Greater Rifts are where the majority of content is now played for anyone geared for Torment. Obviously you will always be hunting to improve your gear and not all builds are subject to this rule, but I would say the majority of the player base is still searching for their ultra rare weapons with proper rolls for their respective characters (Rimeheart, Starmetal Kukri, The Furnace, ect.) to simply progress past their threshold. That's six months of devoted playtime to a single class with no hope or real way of even attempting to turn time invested into reward through, say, Kadala, due to her rather broken pricing. Keep in mind you are paying her currency that you earned in game, using what free time you could spare.

        I also do not agree with the assessment that gambling is anything like the AH. Firstly, Kadala was put into the game for a very important reason; to give players some tiny semblance of control over what gear they are shooting for. This is the developer's intent and was confirmed as recently as the Play Your Way Thursday with Deadset this past month by John Yang. Secondly she is fully and utterly RNG-dependent and you have absolutely no control over what she gives you, which is part of the gearing process of Diablo as a whole so she fits in perfectly there. Thirdly, you are not simply throwing mountains of gold at her infinitely until you receive the weapon you want. You pick up blood shards at about 50 per 10-15 minute run. It costs 75 to gamble a weapon, with a 10% chance of getting something that has a miniscule chance of rewarding the player by being worth your time invested. You literally cannot even carry enough blood shards to average out to a single legendary drop from her even if you wanted after saving for what is equivalent to fifteen level 25+ greater rifts. Two to three legendary items tend to drop from any given greater rift. It makes Kadala's paultry rewards seem rather laughable by comparison, and this is minding the fact that she is actually useful for completing your sets so you don't meander around with 4 pieces of a set for six weeks of nonstop playing.

        There's a point where the journey becomes tedium, and you simply want to be able to explore the content the game has to offer and push your character further. To be rewarded for your invested time and money. Blizzard has been trying to keep the door open for all players, casual and hardcore alike, to have a reasonable shot at feeling like their $60 was worth it. When you are telling players who need one specific weapon that has astronomically improbable odds for dropping that by clicking that weapon button on Kadala have literally thrown away their blood shards, that's a broken design philosphy. The option shouldn't even be there in that case. Finding the weapon of your dreams through Kadala does not mitigate your eureka moment. I assure you, the day she finally chooses to hand my Witch Doctor of 390 paragon levels a Tasker and Theo of any mediocre quality, I will be jumping for joy all the same as if it had dropped from any monster. The same goes inifinitely moreso for the dragon that is the Starmetal Kukri I've been chasing all this time. It becomes tiresome being locked at the same exact level of power with a single devoted class perpetually when there are so many means of becomming so much more powerful. I think there's a point where a player's sense of self-entitlement becomes justified. I don't think the player base is asking for her to hand them their items on a silver platter, they just want an equal chance.

        • A rebuttal:

          -Kadala certainly WAS put into the game to give players more control about the items they find, hence why I said she was an excellent way for players to round out their kit by targeting specific slots. This is similar to the point of the AH – to give players control over what items they use. You’ve effectively agreed with me on this first point.

          -You say Kadala gives you NO control over what you find – incorrect. Her being RNG-based makes her similar to finding items in the game, yes – with one crucial difference that you’ve failed to mention: You are able to choose the type of item you’re aiming for. Hence, subsequent chances of finding a particular item are boosted significantly, especially when you consider smart loot is applied to 100% of gambles. There is a stupendously large difference between finding what drops in the game (pure RNG), versus finding a resource that you spend on the specific type of item you’re looking for (RNG, but at significantly greater comparative odds).

          -She is still a resource-based function, like the AH was. Yes, you could buy gold with real money, but for the people who did not, it was still about putting time into playing the game to find the gold to buy the items, just as you put the time into rifts for shards. These aforementioned points serve to make her more than justifiably comparable to the AH. There are certainly differences, no doubt; that’s why I said she was comparable/analogous, not identical. The two mechanics fulfill the same function, albeit to different extents and with different means.

          My viewpoint is certainly coloured because I only play HC. Dying endlessly in an attempt to grind down the latest GR level with the absolute max gear is not even an option, much less an ideal form of play, so my “journey” and hence my enjoyment of D3 has been extended considerably. At this point, we are arguing because our viewpoints of the “point” of the game differ significantly. My goal is to not die, and to progress into greater difficulties – I’m only now trying T3 in seasons. The threat of losing everything I’ve worked for makes finding another godly item or upgrade significantly more enjoyable. I now have some breathing room, an opportunity for a different build, and a little less pressure being placed on me since I’ll have some backup loot to rely on. This is in extremely stark contrast to to the T6-smashing, GR-stomping 6 piece class-set, RORG cookie-cutter build you’ve described who is upset because one roll on one of his items is not perfect/doesn’t have Rimehart. If you have no threat of permanent death, have maxed out 99% of your gear and are waiting for that last bit of gear, I can absolutely appreciate why people are frustrated with the state of the endgame and Kadala’s role in making that less attainable.

          Let’s talk more about game philosophy: What happens when you find TnT/SMK/Furnace? You find/gamble it, jump for joy, run the next level of GR and then… what, exactly? The magic goes away after a week. This is much more a problem with D3’s endgame, not Kadala. If I’m to go further, it’s not so much a problem with D3’s endgame, but a problem with any grind-based game in general. The point is to play and grind so that you can progress. At some point, you progress to a point where it’s either too difficult or too frustrating to proceed. You’ve made the journey, and effectively reached the endgame, and are waiting to experience the literal last .000001% of the total game. Of all the story, game, skills, action, builds, items, EVERYTHING in D3, your focus has purely come down to finding ONE item with ideal rolls. That’s absolutely tedious, as you say. Think about how stupendously, immensely rare that is – you have reached the apex of the game experience, which by nature is subject to diminishing returns, and you are upset that you cannot achieve that at an “equal chance” of literally every other piece of the puzzle? You say "equal chance" like you have been hard done by and are being mistreated by Blizzard's game mechanics, when in reality you are focusing on one minute aspect of the game and are upset that you are not achieving a 1:1 time to results ratio, since literally up until GR25+ in softcore is, well, a bit of a joke in terms of time/effort:reward.

          I am not one to judge why people find something fun – if I only played SC, I'd be upset about not finding that last piece of the puzzle – but some insight into the psychology of game design should shed some light on why you are upset with Kadala’s drop chances. My advice to you? Start fresh with hardcore seasonal – you might have fun.

          • Certainly worth the mention, and I think this is a great discussion to have in general, especially since our viewpoints and our time invested were each put on the opposite side of the D3 spectrum. For my first point, when I said she was put into the game to give players more control, I tried to put emphasis on the term "tiny semblance". Even if you are able to target a specific item slot, you will never, ever, be able to guarantee that you will ever come out with a single legendary from Kadala aside from some ninja coding that forces a legendary we don't know about. Beyond that, you cannot ever guarantee what stats or specific item she gives you. In D3v or even the game today, you could potentially start up a character and only ever see legendary gloves drop in the game, but never see the pair you're looking for. Kadala works in much the same way. The Auction House was the exact opposite; you could pay real money or buy gold to purchase specific things, sure, but even if you earned the gold the hard way you were able to target exactly what you wanted in exactly what slot with exactly the stats you were looking for. For me, that is a 180. You did not spend weeks putting your hard-earned resources into it to potentially never see what you're looking for.

            As far as her being a resource-based function, the problem is how scarce the resource is. You are getting about one legendary item from every fifth softcore Greater Rift run you do, all the while you are getting legendary drops along the way. If you want to roll for weapons, it becomes every 15th Greater Rift. If the option is in the game and the criteria is that strict for something like a potential .003% chance at getting what you've been searching for (starting to look like D2 numbers when you put in the full pool of weapons and reduce the rate by a fraction of 10…) it makes her ability to even gamble weapons rather moot.

            As far as the philosophy, once I hit that point then I finally get to start rolling with my friends properly, and seeing how far that rabbit hole goes. That's when build experimentation and branching out begins. You run with your close-knit group and keep making minute adjustments and throwing yourself down the Greater Rift hole and seeing if you can make an impact on the Leaderboards. Along the way I should be able to find more items since I am now better geared to help me actually try out some of the so-called "God Tier" builds for other classes at some point in my life, specifically thanks to the fact that Blood Shards exist and allow me to roll things outside of the forced smart loot system, so that my time invested can sort of scale with my rewards give (in theory). Keep in mind every person's endgame goal is different, and for some surely the journey is the excitement (for Hardcore largely, though to hear it from my own Hardcore friends it seems like Greater Rifts are still what they prefer to do in the current game). For others they like to roll solo and see what they can achieve with a Follower + Unity setup. Still for others they want to grab every achievement and Seasonal achievement there is. I have friends that fall under each of these categories, but I'd say I seem to attract the former-most of these types of people when it comes to making friends. That is likely a result of common interests and playing Softcore, however, so it certainly doesn't invalidate anyone else's methods or means of enjoying the game.

            • I think more options for gambling would fix the problem,but I'm sure Bliz would reject it as too complicated. I joked previously that this new system should just unlock once you beat a T4+ Rift, since it's clearly designed for players who can raise a lot of Shards quickly. The casual player scrounging up Shards via bounties and the occasional struggling T1 Rift isn't going to appreciate playing all week for 2 amulet gambles.

              I'd be all for different tiers of gambling, or different prices for different returns. So say 25 shards for the current 1h/2h random gamble, or you can gamble 100 (150? 200?) shards at a time for a single 1h sword, or 2h Flail, etc. That way new people who just wanted something legendary to buff their damage would go cheap and be happy with anything orange, while players who really want specific item X could target it specifically.

            • Interestingly, I had the same idea some time ago about paying more for a specific weapon gamble. Alternatively they could allow for better blood shard drop scaling. I also think it would be cool if you could choose how many blood shards you want to gamble on a single piece with Kadala, or to have multiple gambling tiers, or even an upgradeable Kadala. There are certainly options out there but we really haven't had any tweaks to her since the additional 10-12 shard-per-Torment-level and ability to gamble set updates. It would be nice to at least see some of these sorts of ideas be given a chance in, say, a PTR setting or something. I think they are at least worth considering.

    4. i second a proposal of being able to gamle individual weapon classes.

      kadala is a real *"§()/ when it come to gamlbing imho althoug she sometimes does deliver.

      my rarest gamle were some ice climbers for a wizardette.

    5. I very much understand and appreciate what you’re saying. But the reason players are so annoyed at how difficult it is to find specific items is that there are so few top tier builds and items. No one expects every piece of gear and every build to be equally viable, but it would be nice to have (more) options at the top.

      Diablo 3 has been improving slowly but steadily since launch and I’m optimistic it may one day reach the point where building around what you find is viable for end game content. Until then we’ll be desperately hunting for that one item we NEED to have to be the best.

      • ^ My above comment is supposed to be a reply to fallsviewafro. Something got messed up and it posted in the wrong spot.

      • Fair enough, and I agree. I don't like that there's 6-set, RORG, godly weapon ideal builds. With that being said, new legs + new leg bonuses for existing useless legs + leg gems + all of the above synergizing with existing skills will affect that.

    6. lol Eminem's Duffel, might wanna fix that typo 😉

    7. “neither of the STR classes really wants a TnT anyway”

      Yeah cuz they’re not BIS for a couple CotA Barb and Lord Commander Crusader variations or anything…

      • Be nice, Flux just found out that Cull the Weak is one of most important Hunter passives.

        • Haha yeah I saw that the other day.

          • In general terms, we're writing news here for Diablo 3 players, but not necessarily the .001% who are playing 8+ hours a day and only concerned with GR40+ softcore play. So when I throw in a mention of some item's popularity, I'm going to mention things of use to most players, without going into detail about every specialize build (unless i"m playing it myself, perhaps).

            As for TnT, you'll note that the mention in the OP was a quick "here's who likes this item" not some detailed breakdown of every build's desire for item X. Nevertheless, checking the stats now, I was much more correct than I knew:

            http://www.diabloprogress.com/top_items
            Top items used by top 100 characters of each class in their DB:

            TnT: 63% of DHs, 34% of WDs. 4% of Wizards, 3% of Barbs, 2% of Crusaders, 0% of Monks.

            That's not a typo. Just 3% of the top 100 Barbs and 2% of Crusaders are using TnT. More Wizards use it than either STR class.

            At the time of the previous post, Cull the Weak DH passive wasn't even a top 3 passive for the top 100 DH players! And it was around #8 popular for all DHs. So when I said it wasn't exactly a top 3, meaning it in a figurative and also literal sense, meaning that it wouldn't be a very useful roll for most DHs. If the counter is, "yes, but some specific builds really value it" that's great, but don't hurt yourself with that shirt retucking.

            • I think it’s just a matter of TnT simply being too rare more than anything. If it wasn’t so I’m sure a lot more barbs and saders would be using them. Every night I’m on after work (which for me is only about an hour and a half btw) I ALWAYS see people in barb and especially sader chat complaining they have yet to get TnT in RoS.

    8. I will start by saying to took me well over 120 goblins to get to the vault but last night after reading this post I gambled 500 shards and got mage fist, St askew’s(or something close) and tasker and theo in those 500…..shocking. Finally random works in my favour

    9. I gambled 3 Mirrorballs in one session (500 shards) after the 2.1.1 changes. There is more to Kadala than straight-up RNG.

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